Omayma Abdel-Latif sounds out reactions to President Hosni Mubarak's pre-campaign democratisation pledges With almost two weeks to go before the official presidential campaign begins, National Democratic Party (NDP) pundits and spin doctors are working hard to convince the public that President Hosni Mubarak's vision of comprehensive reform, as outlined in his nomination speech, represents a political shift towards increased democratisation. A week later, Mubarak's speech remains the focus of political debate, raising more questions than it answers. Those parts of the speech referring to constitutional amendments and new legislation enhancing the role of the parliament and the cabinet triggered a great deal of comment, as did Mubarak's assertion that he would "limit the prerogatives accorded to the president by the constitution". In an attempt to decipher precisely what Mubarak intends, analysts produced an avalanche of theories. Some suggest the speech amounts to a blueprint for a political structure that will see parliament exercising greater powers and the cabinet and prime minister expanding their authority. Egypt, they argue, is shifting away from a semi- presidential political system and towards a parliamentary one. Not only that, but the country will finally emerge from 24 years of emergency rule, though Mubarak's suggestion that emergency laws be replaced by new anti-terror legislation clouded the issue. The new legislation could, said commentators, enshrine the most repressive aspects of martial law in the penal code. NDP officials offer a different reading. "The constitutional and political reforms," explains Mohamed Kamal, a member of the NDP Policy Secretariat and a leading figure in Mubarak's campaign team, "will enhance the checks and balances within the current system. The semi-presidential system will continue. What is being proposed is enhancing the role of the cabinet and prime minister, though the office of president will continue to constitute the heart of the system". Less a radical redrawing of political structures, perhaps, than tweaking the perimetres of the status quo. Quite what powers Mubarak will be willing to delegate has been the subject of a great deal of speculation. Kamal declined to elaborate: the president, he said, "will offer details of his vision when the campaign begins on 17 August". Kamal's statements, which have been echoed by other NDP officials, suggest that the party is unlikely to be willing to countenance a major overhaul of the constitution and, with it, the political system. But less important than whether Egypt adopts a semi- presidential or parliamentary system, say observers, is the margin for democracy within whichever system emerges. "Reforming the political system," explains Amr Hamzawy, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "is not about enlarging the scope of power sharing or the relationship between the president and the cabinet but about creating a balance between the three authorities, the legislative, executive and judicial. The delegation of power is only a consequence." When it comes to limiting presidential powers, Hamzawy believes there is only one way to do it. "The president should give up -- at least in part -- his capacity to introduce, suggest and make constitutional and legal amendments. These should be the prerogative of an elected cabinet." Mubarak's pledges reinforce the regime's position as the sole arbiter of the reform process at a time when external and domestic pressure for the opening up of the political arena is growing. Members of the president's campaign team have made no secret of their concern that efforts to present the party's incumbent as a champion of reform are likely to be compromised by any repetition of events like last Saturday's security forces clampdown on a rally protesting Mubarak's decision to run. At least one high- ranking NDP official privately expressed dismay at the government's handling of the pro-reform rally which came just two days after Mubarak outlined his vision of political reform. The opposition greeted Mubarak's speech as a continuation of an on-going policy of gradual reform, insisting it marked no new departure. They expect the regime will continue to pay lip service to reform while cracking down on pro-reform activists. Both the independent and partisan press voiced similar concerns. They said Mubarak's speech, as far as any reform agenda is concerned, was loose, vague and entirely lacking any time frame commitment. Some commentators even suggest that a "national committee" be established to oversee the implementation of the promised reforms and ensure there is no backtracking. One concern that emerged is that the suggested reforms would meet the same fate as the president's call for the amendment of Article 76. That, the opposition claims, was effectively drained of any meaning by the criteria imposed on the eligibility of presidential candidates. "Why should these new pledges be any different to the amendment of Article 76?" asked Amin Iskandar of the would-be Al-Karama Party. "And just what is it the regime wants to do in the next six years that it could not have done in the last 24?" Mubarak, Iskander pointed out, made no reference in his speech to one key opposition demand, that the president's tenure be limited to two terms. "The president's total commitment to his vision of reform," insists Kamal, is the only guarantee that what was pledged will be implemented. "More specifics will emerge as the campaign gets underway, when the president will provide details of the reforms outlined in his speech," Kamal says. "He is committed to answering any outstanding questions throughout the course of the campaign."
