Where does Egypt stand on the eve of President Mubarak's fifth -- and very different -- presidential campaign, asks Mohamed Sid-Ahmed Where do we stand from Egypt's past and from its future in the wake of a presidential election unlike any ever before witnessed in Egypt's history? What is certain is that we are entering a battle that is out of the usual, a battle that marks the end of one stage and the beginning of another. While the features of this new stage are still in the making, one feature that has come to the fore is the unprecedented openness of the debates now underway. Over the last two weeks, issues that were hitherto considered taboo have been addressed head on and, despite all attempts to conceal documents, downplay opinions and prevent the disclosure of embarrassing facts, people are talking more openly than ever before in all the media outlets. With democracy blooming as never before, can it be said that we are living through a Cairo Spring? Whatever the results of the election, and regardless of accusations that the electoral process is being manipulated by the state apparatus, the fact is that Egyptians have never enjoyed as much freedom of expression. But tempting as it is to indulge in this new and heady sense of freedom, we should not allow it to divert our attention away from the main issue, which is the election of a new president, to side issues, however important they may be. We should not be dragged into issues that have come up accidentally and distort the general picture. It is not formally established yet that Hosni Mubarak will be Egypt's next president, but all signs seem to point in that direction. If that is the case, sceptics ask, why all the talk of change, of something new in the air? But I believe their pessimism is misplaced. Even if, or rather when, Mubarak is re- elected, change will be imposed by the very logic of events. Things cannot remain as they are; a return to what things were before the presidential election is impossible. However, the way forward is also blocked unless steps are taken to develop the process that has come into being over the last few weeks. In other words, going back is impossible, and going forward is equally impossible unless drastic steps are taken. The question is whether the regime is ready to take these drastic steps. With the features of the new stage still undefined, the protagonists are navigating uncharted waters towards an uncertain future. What I am afraid of is that some of them will act without a proper understanding of the real balance of power, either believing that conditions are ripe to "twist the arm" of history, so to speak, and taking things further than they can go, or erring in the opposite direction by failing to take advantage of opportunities that do exist. Such a misunderstanding might degenerate into violence, either in the form of action or reaction, thus adversely affecting whatever democratic achievements have been realised in the run-up to the presidency. How to avoid such an eventuality? We must also remember that great hopes were built on the elections. The change was abrupt from a state of apathy and disappointment to one where it suddenly became possible to broach any subject, however shocking, in the media and to express political views and grievances free of censorship and reprisal. Rumours of wrongdoing on the part of this or that official are rife, and it is virtually impossible to identify their source. Who they are intended to provoke and who was responsible for leaking the damning information in the first place. Things could change abruptly from raising delicate problems with amazing frankness to security problems suddenly promoted to the forefront. Reacting to such changes differs from one person to another, especially that what is of interest in the coming period is no longer the number of votes won by a candidate. The elections are over, pluralism and diversity are an established fact; what matters now is how far election promises will be honoured. In my view, more time should have been allowed for election campaigns to create greater opportunities for interaction between the candidates. This would have provided redundancies to be removed and positions to be more sharply defined, guaranteeing that fewer candidates enter the race and that debate is more credible and to the point. In any case, we are now in the stage where elections for the presidency are over and where lessons are to be drawn for elections to the People's Assembly. The last days of the campaign have demonstrated possibilities of rapprochement and to come forward with a national programme which could be the basis for reform in the coming period.
