Similarities have emerged between Egypt's 2005 and France's 2002 presidential elections. Mohamed Sid-Ahmed discusses the issue Mubarak's re-election to a fifth term last week with just under 90 per cent of the popular vote came as no surprise. What was a surprise was the result scored by Ayman Nour, who came second with twice as many votes as the Wafd's Noaman Gomaa. It is difficult to know exactly what happened with the opposition parties blaming shortcomings in the electoral process for the low showing of their candidates and the government insisting that the casting and counting of votes proceeded according to the highest standards. Without a clearer knowledge of the facts, progress towards reaching a consensus over Egypt's future is unlikely any time soon. Al-Ahram quoted the Wafd's vice-president as saying that 90 per cent of the votes cast for Nour came from supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood. The clear inference to be drawn from this is that the confrontation was basically between the NDP and the Brotherhood in preparation for next month's parliamentary elections. It will be interesting to see how the results of the presidential elections impact on the composition of the People's Assembly. How will they affect the distribution of seats in parliament and who will be the best placed to affect government policies, either directly or indirectly? Although I usually avoid comparisons which tend to oversimplify reality, I cannot help but see a clear similarity between France's presidential and legislative elections in May 2002 and the Egyptian presidential elections in September 2005. In both cases, there were three main candidates; in both cases, this tripartite equation led to unexpected alliances. The three main contenders in the French presidential race were the incumbent President Jacques Chirac, Socialist Party leader Lionel Jospin and the leader of the neo- Fascist party Jean-Marie Le Pen. The results of the first round were a complete surprise, not to say shock. President Chirac came first but with only 20 per cent of the vote, followed in second place by Le Pen and in third place by Jospin. Until then the neo-Fascists were considered a marginal force with no chance of becoming part of the establishment. But here they were poised to assert their political presence in the French body politic. The Socialist Party's poor showing at the polls meant that it was excluded from the presidential race, which thus became no longer between right and left but between right and far-right. Faced with this dilemma, the left had no option but to vote for the candidate of the right Chirac, to prevent the far- right from getting a majority. The same game is being repeated in Egypt, with President Mubarak in the position of President Chirac. Nour in the position of Le Pen, and Noaman Gomaa in the position of Jospin. I do not believe that there can be an alliance, or a rapprochement, between Nour and the NDP, because these two parties constitute opposites, especially when it comes to how to deal with America. This found its clearest expression in Nour's statement that the coming confrontation will be against Gamal Mubarak. Al-Ahram wrote that Egypt's first multi- candidate presidential elections are the cornerstone of the new democratic setup. The implication here is that the new democratic setup is the antipode of the previous setup based on the unchallenged primacy of the ruling party. In other words, the NDP is now required to transform itself from a party that sets itself apart from and above other political formations into one bound by the same rules and regulations governing party life in Egypt as all the other parties. The question is whether, after years of running the show single handedly, as it were, the NDP can bring itself to include other parties in the decision- making process. Can it see itself as primus inter pares functioning in a democratic climate or will it continue to maintain its iron grip on power?
