The Thai people are caught between elitist yellow and uproarious red, but can they blend into another orange revolution, wonders Gamal Nkrumah How much more Pandemonium can a policy cause before it is pronounced as a fiasco? The decision 8 April by the administration of Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to declare a state of emergency resulted, over the next month and a half, in 80 deaths and thousands of injuries before the largest protest movement in Thailand's history was crushed, its leaders humiliated and even killed. One of the most traumatic moments in Thailand's turbulent past month was this week's violence that claimed the life of Major General Khattiya Sawasdiphol. He was shot in the head by a sniper while giving an interview to the New York Times and died a few hours later in hospital. He was a high-profile defender of the Red Shirts, the National United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship, who support former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the "Robin Hood" figure who champions the cause of the poor. "There will only be losers," Thailand's 82-year old King Bhumibol Adulyadej prophetically proclaimed, though his support for the government was barely concealed. It has been a rough few weeks for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his supporters. They include the rich and powerful economic elite of a country that is virtually the economic powerhouse of mainland Southeast Asia. Bangkok is a metropolis of 15 million people and it has emerged as the New York of the region in the past two decades. It is also a hotbed of revolutionary fervour in Thailand, and the restive population of the capital is yearning for radical changes in the political system of the country. Abhisit would need to tread warily in dealing with the military, which only returned civilian power in 2007. His government refused the Red Shirt's proposition to conduct negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations and even the Senate. Instead of peace talks with the Red Shirts, the state security forces and police opened fire on the protesters. The Thai Tiger sharpens its claws for full recovery but the political turmoil threatens to derail the economic progress. Royal approval is prerequisite in Thai politics. King Bhumibol Adulyadej is the world's longest reigning monarch, the master puppeteer in Thai politics. Crown Prince Vajiralongkom, a serving military officer, is a key political player, too. Both do not approve of Thaksin Shinawatra or of the Red Shirts. The ailing king has been hospitalised since September. The king's active endorsement of military takeovers in the past gave the army legitimacy in a country where the monarch is deeply revered and venerated. "But the king certainly played a role in giving a nod and a wink over the years, rather in excess of his official constitutional role," Bangkok-based journalist Nicolas Buchele told Al-Ahram Weekly. "At the height of the anti-Thaksin demonstrations, the king summoned top brass who had been rather too fervent in their public support of him, and gave them a dressing down. He then told the courts to sort out the mess that was the recent election boycotted by all opposition parties, which they promptly did by annulling it." The activist rank-and-file understand that the country is to be run as a constitutional monarchy if democracy is to be cemented in the years to come. "The role of the king was critical in previous crises. His role cannot be exaggerated in the current crisis," Buchele explained. The army, however, remains the main stumbling block in the Thai march towards sweeping political reform and democratisation. The back-room deal suggests that Abhisit's rapport with mainstream politicians has not resonated everywhere. The public remains suspicious of his motives, even if the powers that be have catapulted him to office. Abhisit's rhetorical skills are allied to a pragmatic style of leadership that may be tested to the full as he confronts the activist rank-and-file. They detest his state of emergency and now see him as personifying a tyrannical iron-fisted rule. The Oxford-educated Abhisit is viewed as the champion of the rich and privileged, and he is widely supported by key figures in the Thai armed forces. Indeed, his detractors claim that he won his prime ministerial position after a controversial parliamentary vote backed by the Thai military in a deal brokered specifically to keep supporters of ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a populist leader who was ousted in a 2006 coup, permanently out of power. Political instability has brought the country to the brink of constitutional crisis. This cannot be right. To the credit of Thai politicians who have worked hard to avert a graver political crisis, the country has ridden out recent storms with bravado. This is a good thing for Thailand. But what happens if it fails? Nobody knows. What are the lessons of a still unfolding calamity that must be learned and acted upon? Instead of over-reacting, Abhisit has to control his followers. The Yellow Shirts are up in arms and are determined to put up a fight in order to subdue the Red Shirts completely. The dark horse in all this is the ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra. Once a towering figure on the Thai political scene, Thaksin Shinawatra, billionaire and telecommunications tycoon, has emerged as the flag-bearer of the anti-government protesters, the poor and the underdog. During his tenure in office, he initiated radical reforms in the social system offering inexpensive and affordable healthcare and education. These unprecedented developments endeared him to millions of the struggling masses in Thailand. The high-stakes Thai political drama had captured regional and international attention, especially when last month a conference of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was disrupted, much to the consternation of the Thai authorities. The crisis escalated when plans to cement trade ties between ASEAN and China were shelved. Japan and South Korea were also scheduled to strengthen relations with the association. The regional efforts to allay the international financial crisis seem to have backfired precisely because of the political upheaval in this key ASEAN economy. Abhisit took a calculated risk with his declaration of a state of emergency, and appears to have "won" with the unconditional surrender of the Red Shirts. The imposition of the state of emergency caused deep tensions not only within Thailand, but also throughout Southeast Asia at a time of economic uncertainty. The markets of the region have been struck by a virulent attack of the jitters. The full regional impact of the Thai political crisis is only now becoming apparent. The best hope for the country is the enhancement of the democratic process and raising the standard of living of the poorest of the poor. The ball is now firmly back in the court of Thaksin Shinawatra. He holds the key to the country's future in terms of taming the Red Shirts. Against this backdrop, it is clear that the pro-poor politics he instituted must now be prioritised. The lessons will inform a flurry of deal-making set to dominate the political dynamics in the coming weeks in Bangkok. Who will win the battle for the hearts and minds of the Thai people? Only time will tell. The prize is in some respects an unenviable one. The kingly yellow will pale in the face the angry red. If Abhisit's steel fist crushes the opposition without addressing their legitimate demands, that will only rattle confidence in the country's political and economic future further.
