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Why now?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 13 - 10 - 2005

Arab accusations levelled against Iran vis-à-vis its role in Iraq look increasingly, to some, the result of US pressure, reports Rasha Saad
A month ahead of a decisive meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranians are seeking to win the support of Arab countries for Tehran's standoff with the West over its nuclear activities. For this purpose, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki visited Gulf countries last week, the first such tour since he took office in August. Mottaki's itinerary included Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE.
According to Iranian sources, the tour aimed to ease fears of Iranian nuclear activities and assure all parties of their peaceful purpose, as well as underlining Iran's right to such peaceful activities as stipulated by the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iranians are hopeful that these clarifications will eventually lead to a practical move on the side of the Arabs. "In this crucial time, and amid nuclear crisis, comes the vital role of the Arabs who can act as a savior," said Mohamed Sadeq Al-Husseini, Iranian political analyst and secretary-general of the Iran- Arab Forum for Dialogue.
Al-Husseini explains that the Arab group in the IAEA, headed by Egyptian-born Mohamed Al-Baradei, can call for talks with the US, Europe and Israel, with whom they enjoy "friendly relations", to find a way to overcome the nuclear deadlock. "This means that the Arabs would join as partners in the Iranian nuclear project, assuring the US that Iranian nuclear activities are not designed for non-peaceful purposes. This will add to the Arabs a new weight in the international equation," Al-Husseini told Al-Ahram Weekly.
However, Iranians have a tougher challenge: easing Gulf Arab fears about Iran's role in Iraq. In fact Mottaki's Gulf tour was overshadowed by Saudi Arabian accusations of Iran interfering in Iraq through its close ties to the country's Shia-dominated government. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal said last month that the US invasion and occupation had widened sectarian rifts to the point of handing Iraq to Iran, reflecting Sunni Saudi Arabia's alarm at the growing influence of Iraq's Shia majority since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
A scheduled trip to Saudi Arabia last Wednesday, as part of Mottaki's Gulf tour, was postponed. Saudi Arabia referred "scheduling conflicts" while Iranian officials spoke of "a shortage of time", both countries denying that the change in plans had anything to do with recent tensions. Informed sources, however, believe the visit was postponed due to a failure to reach consensus over Iraq.
Jamal Khashoggi, media adviser at the Saudi Embassy in London, explained that while Saudi Arabia respected Iraq-Iran ties, it would be concerned if Iran showed it had relations only with specific groups in Iraq. "Its relations should be with all of Iraq."
Bilateral relations between the two heavyweights soured in 1988 after Iranian Muslim pilgrims in Mecca clashed with Saudi police during an anti-US protest, leaving more than 400 dead. Relations were restored in 1991 and warmed since Iranian President Mohamed Khatami's landmark visit to Saudi Arabia in May 1999, paving the way for an agreement on low security cooperation in 2000. The two countries have expressed interest in opening a new chapter in relations in recent years, taking pride in new "brotherly and friendly relations". This fact, Al-Husseini argues, made Saudi statements "shocking and unexpected".
"Saudis know better than others that Iran does not meddle in Iraqi affairs. Iran does not support one Iraqi party over the other but is keen on the stability of Iraq," he said.
Informed sources told the Weekly on condition of anonymity that the kingdom is alarmed by the impact of the growing influence of the Shia in Iraq on the neighbouring Shia minority in the Sunni kingdom who, according to one source, "have recently presented demands to Saudi King Abdullah calling for their rights and complaining that they are being treated as second- class citizens."
On the other hand, according to the source, Arabs seemed to benefit from supporting Saudi accusations of what they perceive as "sectarian divisions" running out of control "and the ghost of civil war looming on Iraq." The source explained that Arab governments refrained from getting involved in Iraq because they feared popular reaction at home as well as accusations of treason if they dealt with invading Western powers. "The absence of Arabs as a result of this fear has created a political vacuum."
In an attempt to salvage the situation, an Arab ministerial meeting held in Jeddah earlier this month resulted in a scheduled trip to Iraq by Secretary-General of the Arab League Amr Moussa, in order to hold a reconciliation conference there. Meanwhile, Saudi accusations coincided with similar British and US charges. Britain has accused Iran of supplying Sunni militants in Iraq with the techniques for making armour-piercing bombs. The accusations were confirmed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair who said that the new explosive devices used by militants in Iraq, "lead us either to Iranian elements or Hizbullah."
Iran categorically rejected the accusations, saying that the British charges arose after Tehran accused British forces of links to anti- government Ahwazi groups in southern Iran. Iraq's Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jaafari also rejected accusations of Iranian interference. "Such accusations are baseless," he said Thursday. "Relations between Iran and Iraq are currently very friendly, strong and expanding. Some people want to harm our existing friendly relations with Iran. But we will not let them do so."
Reports of Iranian involvement in Iraq have circulated since the fall of Saddam Hussein. They increased amid Iraqi elections held in January in which many Iranian allies -- top Shia politicians, many of whom were previously exiled in Iran -- gained power in Baghdad. Iran does not deny what it terms "influence" rather than "meddling" in Iraq. According to the Iranians, Iran has legitimate interests in Iraq's stability, as well as acting as a counter-balance to America's agenda. Fearing a recurrence of the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war, Iran wants guarantees of a friendly government in Baghdad. The possibility of the emergence of a government hostile to Iran and friendly to the US on its borders is seen, understandably, as great danger. The Iranian regime, after all, has been described by Washington as a cardholder of the "axis of evil" and a potential military target of the US.
Al-Husseini believes it is ironic that Arab officials who are blaming Iran for its stance on Iraq were passive to the US invasion, with even some countries offering logistic support for the operation. Iranians have always argued that since Arabs chose to be absent from the Iraqi scene, they cannot act in the same manner. Al-Husseini believes that while Arab fears may be grounded, "it is not wise that Arabs announce their concern and then act only as spectators."
Arab press covering news of Moussa's pending visit to Iraq referred to the fact that the US is seeking Arab support as means of saving it from a deepening quagmire. The visit of US coordinator for Iraq James Jeffery to hold talks on the situation in Iraq with some Arab officials was highlighted. It is believed that he underlined American calls for Arab support. Al-Husseini fears that the Arab campaign against Iran is a result of US pressure.
"The Americans are trying to cover up their failure to provide security in Iraq," he said, warning that the US is using the Arabs as a "Trojan horse the same way it did prior to the Iran-Iraq war."
Iranians believe that the Iran-Iraq war was the brainchild of the US, pushing Saddam Hussein, supported by Arab countries, to deter the newly born Islamic Revolution in Iran. Iranians claim that the US played on Arab fears of Iran "exporting the revolution". Al-Husseini perceives the same atmosphere now, "of an orchestrated media campaign against Iran that might turn into military escalation."
Mohamed El-Said Idris, an Egyptian specialist on Iranian affairs, echoes similar fears. Referring to the pending Arab delegation visit to Iraq, Idris argues that the late decision of Arabs to get involved echoes American pressure on the Sunnis to offer concessions. The role the US demands from the Arabs in Iraq, according to Idris, does not exceed financial and media and limited political support. It does not include military support -- the involvement of Arab troops, for example.
"Thus the role which the US outlined for the Arabs is very limited and in fact only serves American interests," Idris told the Weekly.


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