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Iran's upper hand
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 24 - 08 - 2006

In the eleventh hour before a Security Council deadline for Iran to desist nuclear activities, Tehran puts its position in writing, reports Rasha Saad
Iran just threw the ball in the court of Western powers. The Islamic Republic is keeping the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany busy in studying its written response to their June package of incentives offered in exchange for Tehran halting uranium enrichment activities.
Western powers remain tight-lipped about the contents of Iran's written response. According to France, it will take a few days to assess the 21-page response delivered Tuesday. "It's a very long, complex document and we are studying it," was all French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said about the document. European Union Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana -- who gave the offer to Iran -- said that Iran's reply was "extensive and therefore requires a detailed and careful analysis".
US President George Bush has yet to examine the Iranian reply, according to a White House spokesperson.
Iran, for its part, says its reply contains ideas that would allow for serious talks regarding its nuclear standoff with the West. Both Iran and Western powers agree that talks are the way to resolve the issue. The main bone of contention at present is that Iran does not want a suspension of enrichment activities to be a pre-condition to talks, while the West demands that all such activities cease before negotiations commence.
Iranians have always denied Western claims that their nuclear activities are aimed towards building nuclear weapons. They perceive demands for suspending nuclear enrichment as being "of no legal or lawful validity." As a signatory of the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran argues it has a right to develop a full-scale enrichment programme for peaceful purposes. "Based on these legal rights Iranians are ready to get engaged in negotiations with the West and address their fears," Mosayeb Naeemi, editor- in-chief of the Iranian newspaper Al-Vefaq, told Al-Ahram Weekly. Naeemi explained that, "If we [Iranians] accept to suspend nuclear activities what are we going to negotiate?"
In fact Iran has initially welcomed the June package, which reportedly included trade, technology and diplomatic incentives if the country agrees to suspend uranium enrichment. But Iran said it would not furnish a reply until Tuesday 22 August in order to study the offer and "clarify ambiguities [over its right to nuclear technology]". It has often hinted that it is preparing a counter offer.
Western powers led by the United States have insisted that all they need to hear is a clear "yes" or "no" to the package. When Iran insisted on its August deadline and ended talks with EU parties with differences persisting, the UN Security Council convened 31 July and demanded that Iran suspend nuclear activities by 31 August or face possible sanctions. For the first time there is legally binding demand that Iran cease its nuclear activities.
Just how the US might push for sanctions in the case that it rejects the Iranian response remains debatable. Since early this year, in meeting after meeting of the Security Council, the US have failed to get China and Russia -- both allies of Tehran -- onboard regarding more strident action against Iran. Analysts say that Iran's Tuesday answer is likely to exacerbate divisions among Security Council members. On Wednesday, Russia and China said they remain committed to a political solution, wishing to keep the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), not the Security Council, at the centre of the process.
Days before delivering their reply the Iranians remained as defiant as ever. Supreme leader Ali Khamenei said Monday that Iran would not bow to international pressures. Meanwhile, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi refuted the idea of suspension as "a return to the past" that "is not on the agenda of the Islamic Republic". Asefi also hinted that sanctions would actually be more harmful to the West as the Iranians "have been under informal sanctions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and we [Iranians] can deal with the consequences by planning".
Not insignificantly, Iran also staged massive military war games "to test new weapons and tactics against a potential enemy," as reported by state television.
The Iranian file shot back to the forefront of world attention as the ceasefire in Lebanon came into effect. The fact that Iranian- backed Hizbullah resisted Israel's vicious war on Lebanon and scored what many Arab and Western analysts perceive as a major victory over Israel's military gave Iranians hope that the US might reconsider its stance vis-à- vis Iran.
Influential Iranian cleric Hashemi Rafsanjani said Saturday that he hoped the US would learn from the conflict in Lebanon and allow the standoff over Iran's nuclear activities to be resolved by negotiations rather than confrontation. "We [Iranians] hope that the US will learn its lesson and will not enter a new conflict to disturb security in this region," he said.


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