Whether Fatah is ready or not, national elections in January will go ahead, reports Khaled Amayreh in the West Bank With the Palestinian Authority (PA) reasserting its commitment to hold legislative elections on time (25 January 2006), Fatah and Hamas and other Palestinian political groups are bracing themselves ahead of polls that observers argue will decide the course of the Palestinian struggle for freedom and independence for many years to come. PA officials have made it clear that as far as the PA is concerned there is no way the elections will be postponed further, irrespective of whether the Fatah movement, the de facto ruling party of the PA, is adequately prepared or positioned for the elections. Parliamentary elections in the occupied territories were originally slated to take place 17 July this year. The PA leadership, however, postponed the poll, citing the proximity of the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, legal complications and inadequate preparations. Many observers cited Fatah's apprehension about a possible Hamas victory as the main driving force behind the delaying of the poll. Fatah leaders hope now that the overall atmosphere with regard to the movement's chances are better than they were five months ago. Surveys of Palestinian public opinion give Fatah a comfortable lead over Hamas. However, many of the opinion polls conducted in the occupied territories are unreliable, given the connections polling bodies have with the PA, or with Fatah. Moreover, it is clear that Fatah is yet to achieve solid internal unity, a necessary pre- requisite for a good public showing. Recently, the movement sought as much as possible to utilise the first anniversary of Yasser Arafat's death to enhance its popularity. The PA and Fatah spent millions of dollars to mark the event. The "celebrations" carried a direct but unmistakable political message to Palestinians, namely that if you love Yasser Arafat, you should elect Fatah on the elections day. Nonetheless, there are other important forces militating against the movement. During the past few weeks, Fatah postponed its "primaries" twice due to the "inter-generational power struggle" within its ranks, especially between "incumbents and aspirants" and between the "old guard" and "regional activists". Seeking to put the best possible face on turbulence within the movement, Fatah leaders, like Ahmed Ghoneim, head of the primary elections committee in Hebron, deny the existence of a power struggle between senior and junior leaderships. "It is an intergenerational harmony, not intergenerational struggle," he said. Denials notwithstanding, there is a silent power struggle between "authentic Fatah" and "the hangers-on" (money-grabbing careerists, in the minds of some, who are Fatah by name while in reality striving to serve their own material interests). Embarrassed by repeated postponements, the Fatah leadership in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip designated Friday, 25 November, as the last date to hold all the primaries. Interestingly, the announcement also carried a warning, stating that if Fatah failed to elect candidates for the legislative elections in any given locality, the national Fatah leadership would choose candidates in that particular locality. It is uncertain that the movement will be able to pass the primaries successfully, but enhancing its internal unity, especially as it is perceived publicly, would help. A successful navigation of the primaries will largely depend on whether Fatah's aspirants who are neither elected nor selected (and who are not accommodated, for example, by the promise of positions) will swallow their pride and rally behind the movement, irrespective of their grievances, sacrifices and service within the movement. Some reliable sources have intimated that "hundreds" of Fatah regional leaders will run in the upcoming elections as "independents" if sidelined or unselected in the primaries. Needless to say, this would not auger well for the movement, as votes would split between the "official Fatah list" and "Fatah independents" as the latter might be able to rely on local clan relationships and public disenchantment with the PA, especially with regards to its old guards, many of whom are tarnished by corruption charges. Hamas, too, is not leaving things to chance. The movement has been conducting secret consultations, mainly between the "arrested leaders" and the "un-arrested" ones. Israel, eager to weaken Hamas prior to the elections, has arrested as many as 1,000 Islamic political activists, many of whom are thought to be potential candidates for the elections. Some are reportedly being subjected to physical and psychological torture, like Hamas's West Bank spokesman Mohamed Ghazal, who is also a professor of engineering at An-Najah National University in Nablus. According to Mahmoud Zahar, Hamas chief spokesman in the Gaza Strip, the movement has already finished the process of selecting its candidates for the upcoming elections. In an interview with a local news agency on Monday, 21 November, Zahar said many of the candidates were chosen from the West Bank, in order to "defy Israel" and prove that Hamas wouldn't be shaken by "this rabid campaign of arrests". Zahar wouldn't give any names, obviously, lest they be arrested by Israel. It is beyond doubt that both Hamas and Fatah's lists, and other faction lists as well, will have prominent slates for imprisoned leaders like Marwan Barghouti of Fatah, Mohamed Ghazal and Hassan Youssef of Hamas, and Ahmed Saadat, secretary- general of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine who is imprisoned in Jericho under joint British-American custody in connection with his alleged role in the killing of former Israeli tourism minister Rehavam Zeevi. Observers in Palestine may disagree on who will win and by what margin in the upcoming elections. Everyone agrees, however, that the next Palestinian Legislative Council will be entirely different from the current pliant and impotent one. Despite any future claims to the contrary, this will be thanks not to Fatah or a more open PA but to Hamas.
