One week ahead of the elections, analysts debate the when and how of an American troop pullout from Iraq, writes Doaa El-Bey In the run up to parliamentary elections in Iraq, political analysts are trying to draw up possible scenarios on the withdrawal of US forces from the country. While they all agree in principle on a pullout, they differ on the timing and the manner. Gaber Habib Gaber believes that the argument at this stage is not about withdrawal but on the appropriate way of pulling out. He ruled out an immediate departure as it would leave a political vacuum that could be filled by armed insurgents inside Iraq or a regional country that has political ambitions in Iraq. Gaber wrote in the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat on Sunday that the withdrawal should take two consecutive routes -- rooting the political process and second, building the army and the internal security system. "Neither party will be able to persuade its followers to withdraw until these two goals are achieved," Gaber said. He excluded a scheduled withdrawal because it would give armed groups the chance and enough time to stock weapons and organise their ranks before the set date for a pullout. In addition, the US government does not want to show these forces -- which it calls terrorists -- that it has been defeated and has retreated. "Admission of defeat can have costly and catastrophic repercussions on the stability of the region and the security and interests of the US," Gaber added. The most acceptable option to Gaber was a flexible withdrawal linked to progress in the political process which is about to be crowned by the election of a government, the promulgation of a constitution and the formation of a parliament that represents the various parties in Iraq. He concluded by calling on the parties "especially the Arabs, who make the unity of Iraq their prime target," to set the stage for a withdrawal by establishing political and economic stability that would curb violence. "Unless stability is achieved, any exit could lead to the division of Iraq," he wrote. Mohamed Sadeq Al-Husseini, an expert on Iranian affairs, sees the US wish to open a dialogue with both Iran and the resistance in Iraq as a clear sign that Washington wants to withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible and with the least number of casualties. Al-Husseini described the new American approach as "the strategy of a guaranteed and organised pullout" in his article in the London-based Al-Hayat on Monday. The Iraqi elections, according to Al-Husseini, will speed up and facilitate the execution of that strategy. "Iran can guarantee that the big, powerful Shia bloc in Iraq, which pulls all the strings in times of war and peace, will not control the political process. Meanwhile, the armed forces can guarantee that the Sunni groups loyal to [Abu Musaab] Al-Zarqawi or Saddam [Hussein] will not take full control of the Sunni provinces after the pullout of US forces," Al-Husseini wrote. Al-Husseini could not say for sure who has the upper hand -- Iran because the US needs its help to extricate itself from Iraq, or the US because it is in control of the situation in Iraq and "whoever controls the situation in Iraq can take anything it needs from Iran". Two high-ranking American officials under the former US president John Kennedy called for an immediate plan for withdrawal. Theodore Sorensen and Arthur Schlesinger wrote in the United Arab Emirates Al-Ittihad on Monday that the US armed forces and economy cannot withstand the continuous loss of lives and money in Iraq. "President [George Bush] said that pulling out of Iraq now is a catastrophe. But how about the catastrophe of staying in Iraq? Al-Qaeda manages to recruit more and more Muslim youth during every month that US forces remain in Iraq," their story said. They compared the present situation in Iraq to that of Vietnam four decades ago and suggested a three- stage strategy for withdrawal that was outlined by Kennedy concerning Vietnam and that suits the present situation in Iraq. "First, we need to clearly confirm that American forces intend to withdraw from Iraq; second, the Iraqi government should request the start of a phased pullout of the US infantry; third, the withdrawal should start immediately according to a schedule (not to be publicly announced). "Meanwhile, Iraqi forces should receive intensive training to replace US forces," they wrote. They underlined that the second step would not be difficult because many political parties in Iraq had recently requested that US forces pull out. Sorensen and Schlesinger added that withdrawal from Iraq now will save US credibility and persuade other countries the US has finally returned to reason.
