As Iraq goes to the polls today to elect its first post-Saddam permanent government the challenges ahead are as great as ever, reports Salah Hemeid Nearly three years after US president George W Bush launched a war to remove Saddam Hussein from power Iraqis go to the polls today in a landmark parliamentary election that could carve out a pathway for the war-battered country towards full sovereignty. Today's election is not the first democratic exercise in Iraq since Saddam's ouster. Since 2003 Iraqis have held municipal elections in 14 out of 18 provinces, while a nationwide general election, the first in the nation's history, was held last January. It is today's ballot, though, that should help Iraq build a stable government that will eventually help the United States formulate an exit strategy from a war that is increasingly unpopular with the American public. An estimated 15.5 million Iraqis are expected to vote in Iraq's first parliamentary ballot since the country's constitution was ratified on 15 October. They will elect 275 legislators who will then determine who will be the next prime minister. Around 7,000 candidates, grouped into 21 voting coalitions, are competing for the 275 seats and for the chance to select the new president and two vice presidents. Following the elections the new premier will form a cabinet that will run the country for a four-year term during which, it is hoped, the US and its coalition partners will start reducing troop numbers and begin handing over control to Iraqi forces. The hopes pinned on the success of the political process in Iraq mean the outcome of the elections will reverberate beyond Iraq's borders and impact on political developments throughout the region. A successful political process in Iraq is viewed in Washington as a cornerstone of its policy in the Middle East, a region the administration sees as dominated by authoritarian regimes. The election will be carefully watched since the government it produces will face, as its first task, the negotiation of the terms under which US forces remain in Iraq. It will not be easy to satisfy all the aspirations pinned on the elections, but it may not be as impossible as some believe. The prospects of building a democratic, united Iraq hinge on how its main political, ethnic, sectarian and religious groups manage to cooperate with one another in reconstruction efforts. Shias, who make up 65 per cent of Iraq's population, have launched a fierce campaign to ensure they remain a major force in the next parliament. While the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of Shiite religious parties that swept the January poll and had the tacit backing of Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, is likely to show a strong performance in today's balloting its massive majority is expected to be trimmed following the departure of some secular and liberal minded Shias who have formed their own lists away from the religious Shia camp. And given the greater Sunni Arab turnout expected this time, the religious Shia camp will face an enormous challenge if it is to maintain its parliamentary clout without forging a larger Shia alliance with secular Shia figures. The Kurds, who make up 20 per cent of the population and are mostly Sunni, are expected to cast their vote according to ethnic identity rather than religion, as happened in January. The Kurds amassed considerable gains from the January polls, winning a federal system that gave them a large degree of political and cultural autonomy and a huge share of Iraq's wealth. They also gained the presidency, the foreign ministry and a significant share of cabinet seats. Their aim now is to consolidate these gains and make more, possibly by redrawing their border to include the oil-rich province of Kirkuk. Arab Sunnis have had a remarkable change of heart when it comes to election participation, although some hard-line groups such as the Muslim Scholars Association continue to boycott the political process. While the terrorist group of Al-Qaeda, led by Jordanian Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, continues to threaten to disrupt the ballot, other radical segments of the insurgency -- mostly Saddam loyalists and their followers -- have said they will not interrupt the elections. As a consequence a large Arab Sunni turnout is expected and, if it materialises, could radically alter the political landscape in Baghdad. Arab Sunnis appear determined to take part in the election following recent experiences in which more than half of Sunni voters opted to stay at home, either because they feared for their lives or believed the dominant Shia-Kurdish alliance was offering them a rough deal. Now three major Sunni slates, and several smaller lists, are fielding candidates who are campaigning on a ticket that calls for a quick end to the US presence in Iraq. Several prominent Sunni candidates have promised to help bring back the old Iraqi Army and end Shia- led purges of former Baath Party members from the government. It remains to be seen, however, whether this will blunt the insurgency or lead to clashes between Sunnis supporting the political process and those backing resistance. Adding to the mix is the Iraqi National List, formed by Washington-backed former prime minister Iyad Allawi, who hopes to bridge the religious Shia-Sunni divide and move the country towards the more moderate course favoured by the US and its allies in the Arab world. Allawi, a secular Shiite and former Baathist whose list won only 40 seats in the outgoing assembly, is wooing undecided voters. But in a deeply religious country where sectarian identity trumps most other considerations Allawi is not expected to secure enough seats to allow him to form a cabinet. Seen as tough on security and running on an "Iraq for all Iraqis" ticket, Allawi could yet become a crucial coalition player if the main Shia list fails to secure a two-thirds majority. His harsh attacks against the Shia-dominated government during the election campaign, however, will almost certainly put him at loggerheads with Shia groups that view him as little more than an old Baathist and power thirsty politician. Without reliable opinion polls final results are difficult to predict, and are unlikely to be announced before the end of the year or early January. But whatever the outcome Iraqis face an immense challenge, with the reconstruction of their devastated nation less dependent upon the results of an election than on compromise. And that compromise will have to happen with the consent of the people on the ground, not just in parliament. (see p.10)
