Hoping for a miracle, Ukraine is counting its votes again and again in the aftermath of exceptionally bungled parliamentary elections, writes Shohdy Naguib Elections in Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada (parliament) -- crucial for the political future of the country -- have proved to be quite an ordeal. Dubbed in the media as the "first fair and democratic election" the affair has featured a variety of political parties striving to overcome the three per cent entry barrier. However, such a broad spectrum of political participation and the pre-election campaign extravaganza barely managed to conceal principal divisions in country. And in case you were wondering, the big -- and for the large part unscrupulous -- businesses have continued to dominate the scene. A year after the "Orange Revolution" with all of its colourful promises unfulfilled, the power status quo in Ukraine remains intact and a political stalemate is inevitable. Political double-dealing is deeply entrenched in the Ukrainian establishment. Balancing on the geopolitical tug of war between Russia and the West, unable to settle hefty industrial privatisation deals and accentuating the language and ethnic identity of contenders, Ukrainian politicians are well versed in the art of plentiful omission and sly innuendo. Among the public, bizarre rumours and conspiracy theories abound and an atmosphere of general distrust and suspicion prevails. To many, the recounting of votes sanctioned by president Viktor Yushchenko can do little to "remove all doubts with regard to the legitimacy of power". Such a noble aim is unlikely to be accomplished against a backdrop of intrigues and duplicity that his own -- and previous Ukrainian governments -- have exhibited on numerous occasions. As the preliminary count of votes was announced, coalition bargains were conducted backstage. "Coalitions of hate" -- as these were called by observers -- are unlikely to lead the country forward, with its members either at each other's throats or busy forming power alliances. The largest fraction in the new parliament will be entitled to name the prime minister who will be vested with wide privileges. The apparent winner of the parliamentary elections, with almost 32 per cent of the vote, is the Ukraine Regions Party headed by Viktor Yanukovich. However, his personal premiership ambitions pose a serious obstacle for any possible coalition between the Regions Party with the presidential Our Ukraine. Yanukovich, who scandalously lost the presidential elections last year -- is widely rejected by Western constituencies and is generally regarded as a rude and uncultured man. The short-lived unity of "the orange front" -- that ended when the president sacked his former ally Yulia Timoshenko from the prime minister position -- could be restored on precisely such "hate terms" in order to maintain the political division between the nationalistic Western constituency and the mostly Russian population in the eastern and southern parts of the country. Given the animosity between Yushchenko's and Timoshenko's teams and the high ambitions of the Ukrainian "iron lady", this uneasy match seems to be the only one that makes sense. From the outset, it was clear that Timoshenko would attempt a comeback as prime minister and as an opposition leader on her own terms. Scoring almost 23 per cent of the votes, Timoshenko is at a strong advantage, and there is plenty of space for political manoeuvre. She is promising miracles to her electorate and is a miracle of a kind herself. Unlike Yushchenko, she has successfully campaigned in the eastern part of Ukraine and is capable of normal relations with its business elites. Posing as a radical reformer, Timoshenko is capable of forming a strong opposition to a coalition between Yushchenko and Yanukovich if any such alliance is to materialise. In that case Timoshenko will surely aim at a victory in the 2009 presidential elections. The ruling party, lagging far behind in third place with only about 15 per cent of the votes, puts the Ukrainian president in an extremely strained position. And though the outcome proves that the elections were democratic, it will be difficult to convert this valuable moral credit into political weight in the new Supreme Rada. A coalition with Timoshenko could mark the political end for the Our Ukraine Party given that the prime minister will be as powerful as the president and Yushchenko will have to admit the total failure of his previous manoeuvres. Timoshenko's return to the post of prime minister will further strain Ukrain's relations with Russia, particularly in light of her demands to abrogate what she regards as the "crushing terms" of the natural gas transit agreements. A coalition with Yushchenko's arch-rival Yanukovich is even less likely unless the two parties come up with an idea for a Unification of the Ukrainian nation. The country is yet to overcome bitter cultural divisions. Playing down the rhetoric on both sides will be needed for an initial compromise: Yushchenko would have to stop "pulling Ukraine into NATO" and Yanukovich would have to stop pushing the "issue of the Russian language". The Socialist and the Communist parties of Ukraine -- with around six and almost four per cent respectively -- complete the picture of the new Ukrainian parliament and are likely to contribute to the weight of this or that coalition only marginally. Ukrainians will have to wait until June to see the parliamentary coalition materialise and the prime minister nomination will only be ratified in July. Regardless, a period of painful economic instability lies ahead.
