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Fact or fiction?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 18 - 05 - 2006

Expectations that the regime will soon fall are based either on sound facts or wishful thinking. Doaa El-Bey tries to determine which
Writers expressed dismay, disbelief and perplexity over the government's confrontation with judges and their supporters who claim that last year's parliamentary elections were rigged. Headlines which reflected such sentiments included 'Regime is rapidly moving to its inevitable end', 'Downfall of the regime is imminent', 'Latest practices prove that the regime is blundering', 'Despotic and ferocious regime', 'Sexual harassment is the new slogan of the regime', 'Downtown Cairo is occupied by police forces', 'Cairo is on the verge of civil war'.
Sawt Al-Umma compared what is happening in the streets of Cairo with Lebanon after the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri in February 2005 when the streets of Beirut demanded freedom from Syria.
Ibrahim Eissa wrote that the regime's practices are reminiscent of the Nazis. He reiterated in the back page of Sawt Al-Umma that Egypt is under the occupation of a despotic regime, regarding the incidents of a week earlier as proof that the regime is frightened of its citizens and of any form of protest. As a result, the security forces' only job now is to protect the regime and the absolute and everlasting authority of the president.
"The National Democratic Party is protected by the boots and helmets of members of the security forces. Without rigging elections and curbing opposition, the ruling party cannot survive," Eissa argued.
The way the security forces treat innocent and unarmed citizens, Eissa charged, is worse than that of the Israeli forces with Palestinians or the American occupation forces in Iraq. Moreover, the atrocities of the security forces today exceeded that of British forces when Egypt was under British occupation. "The victims of the current regime are more than the victims of student protests and popular demonstrations under the British occupation", Eissa wrote.
In the Nasserist weekly Al-Arabi, El-Sayed El-Azouni talked about an imminent change. He argued it was crystal clear that the regime cannot survive without repression and beatings. That is why it is adamant in maintaining the emergency laws for as long as possible because it is their tool for survival.
Meanwhile, El-Azouni added, people realise that the regime is ageing and is behaving nervously. "The regime is very cautious not to allow any security lapse. Thus, the extensive presence of security forces is heavily felt in any place that witnesses a political gathering regardless of its size or influence," he added.
Hassan Nafaa said it was not an exaggeration to compare the role that the Judges' Club is playing in the political arena these days to the role the Armed Forces Club played before the 1952 revolution.
"In 1952, especially after the burning of Cairo, the Armed Forces Club became the centre of the conflict between those who were advocating political change and those who rejected it. Naturally, the Judges Club is now the centre for managing the conflict between the parties calling for change and those rejecting it at a time when law is obviously the tool for real change and for toppling the current regime," Nafaa wrote in Al-Masry Al-Youm.
Hassan Hanafi agreed with Nafaa and predicted that the judges' crisis could lead to a second July Revolution, just like the burning of Cairo led to the July Revolution of 1952.
He argued that free judges and men of thought would direct the new movements like the Judges' Club, Kifaya, the Movement for Change and other civil society organisations just like the Free Officers who managed the crisis in the Armed Officers Club.
"The burning of Cairo speeded up the July 1952 Revolution. Violence in Sinai and other cities and villages and sectarian strife in Alexandria and Upper Egypt could speed up a second revolution", Hanafi said in Al-Arabi.
The government faced protests at home as well as abroad. During his visit to Morocco earlier this month, Sawt Al-Umma wrote that dozens of protesters and human rights activists demonstrated against Mubarak's government and denounced its practices against judges and their supporters.
In another show of support for the judges, Al-Masry Al-Youm reported that dozens of Egyptian residents in England demonstrated in front of the Egyptian Embassy in London in protest at the recent detention of judges by the Egyptian security forces.
Many writers called on political movements and the public to support the judiciary in its battle with the government. However, today's anticipated events and developments in the next few weeks will show whether the government's recent practices have intimidated the supporters of judges or strengthened them.


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