Will Syria be dragged into the open confrontation between Israel and Hizbullah, asks Sherine Bahaa The announcement on Sunday that the rockets that hit Haifa, killing eight Israelis, are Syrian-made triggered speculations that it might be a prelude to an impending attack on Syria. Though such an attack is unlikely -- at least for the time being -- Damascus has pledged an "appropriate retaliation" in case it is attacked. Analysts, however, believe that Syria is too powerful a target for Israel to take on at this time, especially as its American ally is already heavily engaged in neighbouring Iraq. In a speech on Monday to the Knesset, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert described Syria as part of an "axis of evil" with Iran and accused it of "sub- contracting" attacks on Israel through Hamas and Hizbullah. But with two simultaneous fronts open -- Hamas in Gaza and Hizbullah in Lebanon -- Israel would rather shelve plans to strike Syria rather than opening a third front now. Israel, however, will continue to step up pressure on Syria by all possible means. Israeli warplanes buzzed the summer residence of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad late last month saying he has sheltered Khaled Meshaal, blamed for masterminding the abduction of the Israeli soldier in Gaza. According to Emad Shueibi, a senior Syrian political analyst, Israel might do minor skirmishes to pressure Syria, in which case Damascus will retaliate. "The Israelis give the impression they are mad to frighten the Arabs, but in fact they are not, they are very sensible," he added. Israel knows quite well that an open war in the region is not in its own interest. "They are not stupid. They might have been a bit rash in escalating the confrontation at this particular moment, but they are definitely not stupid," Shueibi told Al-Ahram Weekly. Hizbullah held its military operation in the north of Israel killing eight and taking two as hostages only three weeks after the 25 June capture of the Israeli soldier near Gaza. But beyond the issue of exchanging prisoners, the operation brought Syria back to the limelight as a regional player, after a long period of deliberate isolation. The ongoing open confrontation between Israel and Hizbullah shows, among other things, that both Damascus and Tehran have a key role to play in any Middle East peace settlement. Both Iran and Syria are at loggerheads with the West. Iran has been locked in a dispute with the West over its nuclear programme, which the United States, Israel and the European Union all suspect is aimed at developing weapons of mass destruction. While Syria has clashed with the West over its support for Palestinian resistance groups -- including the sheltering of Hamas leader Meshaal -- as well as its suspected role in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. Washington also accuses Damascus of doing too little to prevent insurgents crossing its border into Iraq to fight the US-led coalition. So far Syria, which backs but denies arming Hizbullah, has tried to avoid direct accountability for the running conflict. The Syrian president was very reserved in his comments on the ongoing confrontation limiting his country's role to helping Lebanon cope with the Israeli attacks, without specifying how. US officials have called on Damascus to force its Muslim militant allies in Lebanon to act more moderately. "Hizbullah has burnt its bridges. It cannot afford to be defeated now. It might not be possible for it to win this battle, but if Hizbullah is totally defeated this will leave the door wide open for the Israeli-American agenda to rule supreme," Shueibi explained. "Agree or not, the natural outcome of this latest move by Hizbullah is the linking of the various regionl players into one package -- Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and even Iran. A one overall comprehensive solution is a must now," he added. A Syrian MP viewed the US quest to curb Hizbullah's military prowess as unrealistic. "If we imagine that Al-Assad gets on the phone to ask [Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan] Nasrallah to stop, do you really think he will?" asked Mohamed Habbash, an independent member of parliament. "We are dealing with a man who has decided to sacrifice all for the sake of God. Do you think he is waiting for advice from Damascus," said Habbash.
