If you think or hope that the recent mass protests in Sudan and Algeria is the second wave of the Arab Spring, hold your breath and think again. Activists and academics are very cautious, warning against expectations of radical political change. There is no doubt about the similarity between the causes of the first wave of mass protests that started in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria in late 2010 and early 2011 and the current mass protests in Sudan and Algeria. Not only are the roots of discontent and anger very much the same, but also the route they appear to be taking. That is what seems to be happening, at least for now, unless lessons from the first wave of the Arab Spring are learned. The outcome of the first wave of the Arab Spring can hardly be called a success. Syria, Libya and Yemen are tragic cases. Therefore, it may be disheartening for the protesters in Sudan and Algeria to declare their civil struggle against two of the longest serving Arab autocrats as “a second wave” of the mass protests in Arab streets nine years ago. Protesters in Sudan and Algeria are hoping for a much better outcome and no one can blame them. That is why they are still taking to the streets after the removal of Omar Al-Bashir of Sudan and Abdel-Aziz Bouteflika of Algeria. However, the problem is, and it has always been, that there are too many forces — internally, regionally and internationally — that put their hands on any democratic uprising to ensure continuation of the status quo. The coming weeks and months will be crucial and the interactions between internal and regional dynamics will determine the fate of the uprisings in Sudan and Algeria, and perhaps beyond. For the Sudanese activists, like Ayman and his family who are still camped in front of the general headquarters of the Sudanese army in Khartoum more than a week after Omar Al-Bashir's ouster, the revolution is still a “work in progress”. He is refusing to leave until the demands of the protesters are met. Above all, the establishment of a civilian government as soon as possible, not after two years of a transitional period. But his sentiments, which are shared by millions of Sudanese, are in direct contrast with the intentions of the powerful military players in Sudan and regional powers calling for “stability” above anything else. There is sympathy worldwide with the protesters in Sudan and Algeria and appreciation of their reluctance to leave the streets soon after the removal of the heads of the state only to find that the situation did not really change dramatically. “Revolutions are life-or-death struggle between forces on the ground trying to imbue their interests and influence, and other forces trying to create a new reality, and the only way to insure the success of the revolution is to keep united, keep pressing and keep believing,” Ayman told Al-Ahram Weekly.
THE VACUUM PROBLEM: Filling the vacuum after the demise of an autocrat has always been the challenge for any project of democratic change in the region. The courage of demonstrators in the Arab street since 2010 is not in doubt. The bravery of youth and their ability to struggle for democracy is not in doubt. Hundreds of thousands have been killed since 2010, most of them in Syria which became a battlefield for a proxy war between regional powers in the Middle East. So, the bravery is there, but the ability to organise, unite and fill the vacuum remains a challenge to lasting success. “If you look back at the Arab Spring, the military filled the vacuum. However, this is not a long-term solution”, said former UK ambassador to Libya Peter Millett. The political reality is that the opposition parties are weak, suffering from internal strife. Youth movements, meanwhile, are divided and without experience in political tactics and strategy. In short, according to some there is hardly any institution that is ready to take control. However, many in Sudan will argue that there are strong political parties and powerful oppositions leaders with a social base that may help with the struggle to achieve democratic transition. Demonstrators point to a long history of political dissent, including the 1964 uprising where students and unions overthrew the military government of General Abboud, and the 1985 Revolution that toppled Marshal Gaafar Numeiri.
FADING NOSTALGIA: Considering the results of the first wave of the Arab Spring, it is not difficult to understand why the Arab world and the outside world are looking cautiously at this “second wave” of the Arab Spring. Ian Black, visiting senior fellow at the Middle East Centre of the London School of Economics, says that “it is inevitable to compare between the Arab Spring in 2010 and the recent uprising in Sudan and Algeria.” “But it is important to look at specific circumstances in every country. If we look to Algeria, we have seen the removal of a president who has been in office for 20 years. But we have not, yet, seen any significant changes that suggest far reaching transformation of the Algerian system and I think, as people often point out, the history of Algeria, not only the war of liberation against the French but particularly what happened after the election in 1991 and the terrible toll that it took on the Algerian society, is clearly playing against mass protests and more importantly against violence. So, again we have not seen a radical transformation. Sudan did catch people's imagination. Sudan, of course, more than anywhere in the Arab world is also an African country. And I think what we see in both countries and the link with the Arab Spring in the sense that young people are trying to secure a better future,” Black added. He emphasised that in Sudan the demonstrations started as a protest against poor living conditions, deteriorating economic standards and the collapse of the Sudanese pound causing daily hikes in the price of food and other essentials like medicines and imported goods. The situation was made worst with the fact that the Arab world has the world's highest youth unemployment rate, with about 30 per cent of 15-24-year-olds out of work. According to World Bank predictions, just to keep up with the region's demographic bulge, countries affected need to “create immediately” more than 10 million jobs a year. It also warns that if current demographic trends persist, the Middle East and North Africa will need to create more than 300 million jobs by 2050.
SHORT-TERM STABILITY IS NOT THE ANSWER: Black, who is a former Middle East editor at The Guardian newspaper in London, thinks recent developments could potentially change the dynamic, but it is still early days. “It is hard to see at this stage a general phenomenon of radical political change. We have not seen that yet, despite excitement, especially in the Sudanese case,” says Black. He stresses that it is important not to be carried away by the coincidence of recent developments in Sudan and Algeria. There is common ground in the discontent in the region, but we must not lose sight to the particularity of each case. Looking at the different trajectories of what happened in Tunisia, Syria and Libya proves that the Arab Spring is too loose a concept to encompass dramatic changes in these cases that were affected by internal fighting, armed militias, external interference and factionalism. Also, civil uprisings could easily be trapped in the geopolitics of the Middle East. Big powers, internationally and regionally, who prefer the status quo will always stick with the devil they know. In Russia's Putin and America's Trump, it is the safest bet in politics to put your money on them standing by the strongmen of the region. President Bashar Al-Assad of Syria is the clearest example. He returned from the edge of the political abyss with the support of regional allies and Russia, and today we can see those who wanted him toppled normalising diplomatic relations with his government. Knowing this, Islamists in Sudan will try to hold onto power by trickery after they failed to stop the revolutionary tide by repression and use of their “Shadow Forces”. However, many Sudanese are saying they are determined to continue their sit-in in front of the army headquarters until their demands are met. They hope to follow on the path of African countries on the march to democracy rather than that of fellow Arab countries. The new head of Sudan's Military Council, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan Abdel-Rahman, said on Saturday a civilian government would be formed after consultations with political forces and promised a transitional period of no more than two years. However, in a communique Monday, the African Union's Peace and Security Council called on Sudan's military to transfer power to a “transitional civilian-led political authority” within 15 days or face suspension from the African Union. It is the same old struggle between the status quo and real change, only getting harder with the most influential two powers in the Middle East, the US and Russia, siding with the status quo while Europe is consumed by its internal problems. “The sad truth about the Europeans in the age of Trump and Putin is that the influence of the EU is much harder to see. I think one of the outcomes of the Arab Spring in Syria and Libya has been that the EU now focuses very much on the two questions of illegal immigration and terrorism. The EU's ambition to promote democratic changes in the Middle East has very much taken a back seat now. This is how the world is changing. It is a very dysfunctional moment,” Black told the Al-Ahram Weekly. Uprisings in Sudan and Algeria might not be a second wave or continuation of the Arab Spring. However, they do challenge the notion that no one will dare to take to the streets again because of fear of becoming a new Syria, Libya or Yemen. People still have a desire to see real change and better conditions and believe in their ability to effect this change. Eyes remain fixed on Sudan and Algeria to see what might transpire, and whether there will be success or another lesson in dashed hopes.
