The Syrian government decided to regulate the distribution of fuel this month, requiring citizens to ration their petrol quota to 20 from 40 litres for taxis and private cars, at a rate of 20 litres every five days for private cars and 20 litres every 48 hours for public ones. There is now a serious fuel crisis in Syria along with other shortages of staple commodities and food, as well as a drop in the distribution of fuel (petrol and diesel) earmarked for government facilities by 50 per cent. There have been long lines at petrol stations in Damascus and other cities, with taxi-drivers complaining of lack of fuel. Last week, the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced that the rationing would allow the maximum number of people access to fuel. It said the country consumed 4.5 million litres of petrol a day, and that daily subsidies on oil products cost it $2.76 million. Prime Minister Emad Khamis said the oil crisis was due to a halt in the Iranian oil credit line six months ago, which had otherwise delivered two oil tankers each carrying one million barrels of oil every month to Syria. Local refineries had then processed the oil and supplied the market to cover local consumption. Khamis said Iran's credit line had stopped because of economic sanctions, claiming that Syrian efforts to convince Egypt to allow Iranian tankers to pass through the Suez Canal had failed. He said that the US had threatened to fire on oil tankers heading to Syria. Cairo has denied the claims, saying it is not preventing oil tankers heading to Syria from passing through the Suez Canal. According to the Egyptian cabinet, “what is being reported in local and foreign media and social media about the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) preventing tankers carrying oil to Syria is not true.” It added in a statement that the cabinet had “communicated with the SCA which categorically denied these claims, asserting that there is no truth in reports that the SCA has prevented any vessels heading to Syria.” US sanctions on Iran impact the flow of oil products to Syria, which primarily relies on Iran for these commodities. This has raised their price in Syria and limited their distribution. In November, the US treasury threatened to place sanctions on all those involved in sending oil to Syria, which coincided with Washington's blocking an international network it claimed had allowed Tehran to deliver millions of barrels of oil to the Syrian government in cooperation with Russian companies. In 2011, Syria's oil output was 400,000 barrels a day, but today it is no more than 14,000 barrels a day, according to government sources. The oil sector has suffered direct and indirect losses worth $74 billion since the start of the crisis in 2011, according to a statement by the Syrian Minister of Petroleum. Most oil and gas fields in Syria were until recently under the control of the Islamic State (IS) group, which cooperated with the regime in deals for three years until the US-backed Kurdish militias of the Democratic Syrian Forces took control of most of the wells in northern and eastern Syria and began using routes beyond the regime's reach. It seems the current economic crisis in Syria has a political dimension as well as an economic one. Iran may be putting pressure on the Syrian regime and also trying to embarrass Russia into giving Tehran control of the port of Latakia, a major trade outlet on the Mediterranean coast. According to reports in the Western media last month, Iranian companies linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have already started shipping goods through the port, making it a likely alternative route to delivering weapons to the Syrian regime. Local media also reported negotiations regarding the port, stating that last month investment plans were being discussed by the Syrians and Iranians. The Western media say that the port could become the last stop on the “Shiite Crescent” that Iran is trying to create in the region from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea and passing through Iraq and Syria. In October, Iranian Railways announced a project connecting the Iranian city of Shalmash and Latakia passing through Basra in Iraq. Heshmatallah Falahat Bishah, chair of the National Security Committee in Iran's Shura Council, said last month that the Syrian regime owed Tehran a “huge debt” and called for payment by Syrian officials. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad visited Iran and met with Iranian supreme guide Ali Khameini, a trip which diplomatic circles claimed Russia had disapproved of. By withholding oil from the regime, Iran wants to embarrass Russia and remind Moscow that Iran, even if less militarily capable, can pressure the Syrian regime and create instability that could threaten it domestically. Iran's strategic political, military and economic interests must be taken into consideration, it says. If the regime hands over Latakia to Iran, this will negatively impact the Hameem base in Latakia, a key Russian military base located 20 km from the port. The base is a source of protection for Iran as well, since Israel would not venture an attack on Iranian vessels there since it is close to a Russian airbase. Any attack could result in military and security trouble for Tel Aviv. The Syrian regime has been treating Latakia as the private property of the Al-Assad family, since it has been under their control since former president Hafez Al-Assad was in power. Jameel Al-Assad, uncle of incumbent President Bashar Al-Assad, has managed the port for more than 25 years as family property. Rifaat Al-Assad and other family members have smuggled goods from there over many years. If Iran succeeds in taking control of the port, perhaps by signing a 50-year lease, it will become a strategic military and economic site from which Iran could threaten Europe and Israel and use it as leverage with the US to alleviate international pressures on Iran.
