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Third term for Al-Bashir?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 12 - 2018

It looks like Sudan's President Omar Al-Bashir will not be leaving office at the end of his second term in 2020 as earlier promised. Members of his ruling party, the National Congress Party (NCP) are paving the way for perpetual rule.
Parties in the Sudanese parliament presented 294 signatures to Speaker Ibrahim Ahmed Omar requesting amending the constitution to scrap articles that limit presidential terms to two tenures.
Omar said he received a memorandum from 33 parties representing 294 deputies with regard to the number of times the president's candidacy is allowed.
The requesters want to see amendments to Article 57 of the 2005 Constitution that states that, “the tenure of office of the president of the republic shall be five years, commencing from the date of assumption of office, and the same president may be re-elected for one more term only.”
They also want to see changes to another article that states, “the state legislature may, in accordance with the state constitution, pass, by three quarters majority of all its members, a vote of no-confidence in the governor.”
The parliamentary members proposed giving the president the right to depose the elected governor without going back to the legislature.
The NCP's Shura Council had in August amended its regulations to lay the groundwork for Al-Bashir to run in the 2020 presidential elections, though unconstitutional.
Al-Bashir became president in June 1989 after a coup supported by the Muslim Brotherhood's National Islamic Front replaced the Sadiq Al-Mahdi government with the Revolutionary Command Council for National Salvation (RCCNS).
The RCCNS didn't draft a constitution or hold elections during its first ruling years, until 1996 when Al-Bashir won the presidency and late Islamist leader Hassan Al-Turabi became the speaker of parliament.
In 1998, a constitution for Sudan was written, but it was cancelled after signing the peace accord with the Sudan's People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in 2005. It was the peace agreement that allowed the people of the south of Sudan to hold a referendum on independence that gave way to the secession of South Sudan in 2011.
The 2005 Constitution allows the president to run for two five-year terms in addition to a five-year transitional period (2005-2010).
Al-Bashir's tenure ends in 2020. By then he would have been at the helm for 31 years, rendering him the longest governing president of Sudan since its independence from British colonialism in January 1956.
Sudan's current economic conditions are the harshest in its modern history, especially after the independence of oil-rich South Sudan, which cost Sudan three-quarters of its revenues.
Al-Bashir is charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court for his role in the bloody conflicts of Darfur, west of Sudan.
The UN estimates 300,000 people lost their lives in the violent conflicts, whereas Sudan's government claims the number “doesn't exceed 10,000”.
Millions of Sudanese fled their homes in Darfur, a region the size of France, as a result of the violence.
Al-Bashir's government went to wars with the northern sector of the SPLM south of the Blue Nile, in the south at the Nuba Mountains, and in the east.
Fayez Al-Salik, a Sudanese opposition writer and former chief editor of Agras Al-Hurreya (Tolls of Freedom), said, “After all this Al-Bashir will run without the slightest opposition. He had terminated all in Sudan.”
He added that Al-Bashir “did nothing for 30 years, not a single factory or agricultural project. He has killed all projects.”
Sudan, despite its vast natural wealth of resources, suffers a deterioration in its agricultural and livestock exports. It imports wheat and other food staples, in addition to medicine and fuel.
“Millions were killed in the south and in Darfur during Al-Bashir tenure. Despite the regime's claims to preserve blood, Al-Bashir agreed to the secession of the south,” added Al-Salik.
“Sudan couldn't keep its unity nor earn peace,” said Sudanese leftist politician Al-Haj Warraq.
Despite the independence of the south, Sudan suffers a civil war in many of its regions. Al-Bashir's supporters say the civil war hindered the development of the country.
“Sudan is at war since the 1950s. How can we expect any development?” asked Walid Sayed, a Sudanese diplomat at the Embassy of Sudan in the US. “The country was also under US embargo for two years.”
Sudan is known to be one of the very few files upon which US Democrats and Republicans agree. Lifting the sanctions on Khartoum started gradually in the last few years of Barack Obama's term in office and were completely lifted by President Donald Trump.
Washington imposed economic sanctions on Khartoum in 1998. George Bush Jr tightened the siege.
Though the embargo was lifted earlier in 2018, the economic conditions of the country didn't improve. It needs a lot of work on its infrastructure, such as in the sectors of energy, transportation and the roads network, in its judicial circles and in fighting corruption.
“Sudan is confused. It fights alongside Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates by sending thousands of soldiers to Yemen, yet it still maintains relations with Qatar,” said Warraq, adding that Al-Bashir “flew to Cairo to meet [President Abdel-Fattah] Al-Sisi. A few days later he was in Istanbul to attend the inauguration of its new airport. And then he attended the closing of the World Youth Forum in Sharm El-Sheikh.”
Warraq continued that Al-Bashir “does all this to gain financial support he can't get. I don't think he will. Everybody wants clear, sharp stances.”
Sudan's position on Qatar's diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain and other countries was confused and it neither supported Khalifa Haftar nor Fayez Al-Sarraj in Libya, though Al-Bashir met with the latter, said Warraq.
Al-Bashir's plan will succeed and he will continue to sit at the helm, concluded Warraq, but when he leaves office he will have put Sudan at a crossroads: “Either it turns to democratic, secular unity, or the largest African state with the most resources will have vanished forever.”


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