The efforts of the major international and regional powers bordering Syria are now focused on the north of the country, with the military presence concentrated on this area. While Russia controls the rest of the country, many other countries want to have a presence in the north because of its geopolitical importance and demography. The “Somalisation” of this region has torn it apart among armed factions and regime forces, Kurdish militias, troops from the US, Russia, France and Italy, as well as the Turkish army which is strongly present in the area either directly or through proxies. Since the start of the Syrian Revolution in 2011, there have been warnings against the possible “Lebanonisation,” “Iraqisation” or “Somalisation” of Syria, referring to its de facto fragmentation. This has now taken place in northern Syria with the creation of political and military entities affiliated to various countries and powers. The battles could rage on indefinitely if a comprehensive solution is not found. Many fear the partition of Syria as a result of the ongoing ethnic and religious conflict. Although there is as yet no widespread sectarian conflict, the battles in the north of the country have clear ethnic and religious overtones, warning of such a scenario in the future. The US, Turkey, the Syrian opposition and the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, the Kurds, Russia and Iran have all divided up northern Syria amongst themselves, each digging in their heels over the areas under their control and bartering in negotiations and various deals. After taking military control of large swathes of Syria and undermining any political outcome, Moscow now wants to entrench its presence and the survival of the Al-Assad regime. Russia is taking advantage of the US preoccupation with fighting the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group in eastern Syria, its alliance with the Kurds, and its pressure on Iran. Turkey has been distracted in northern Syria to protect it from US-backed separatist Kurds, and Ankara wants the Syrian conflict to be contained until it can reinforce its troops and extend its influence to other areas of the country. Meanwhile, Russia wants the process of amending or rewriting the Syrian constitution to proceed, and it wants the Syrian refugees to return home and start the reconstruction process even if it does so alone. It hopes to rally European support for its moves in Syria, hoping to convince Washington to be amenable to Russian moves. The US has established a strong military presence in northern and eastern Syria, with some 15 permanent military bases and five under construction controlling nearly all the oil-producing areas and a large portion of the Syrian-Iraqi border. Washington is also supporting separatist Kurdish forces in northern Syria in return for their supporting US military bases. This has bolstered the Kurdish forces and protected them from collapsing in the face of Turkey and the Syrian opposition. Turkey has consolidated its presence in northern Syria through the armed Syrian opposition and entered an alliance with Russia as its relationship with the US has faltered. In response, the US has moved the Kurds away from areas that Ankara views as national security zones. The Turkish position has been met by Kurdish attempts to impose a fait accompli in parts of northern Syria, making it a Kurdish canton backed by what some view as the temporary US support that began under the former Obama administration. This has resulted in the US returning to the fray under the pretext of eliminating terrorism, angering Ankara since it views the US's Kurdish allies as a threat to national security and is worried that a Kurdish entity will be established along its border with Syria. Ankara wants to cleanse the length of its southern border of armed Kurdish militias together with the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Turkish PKK, the Kurdish Workers Party, listed as terrorist groups by Turkey, and it has taken advantage of renewed warmth in its relations with Washington to expand along Syria's northern border and east of the Euphrates River. It has begun to target the Kurdish militias and declared its intention to send heavy weapons to these areas, while resorting to the opposition Free Syrian Army to fight the Kurds. Iran is also still present in northern Syria, with Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces and Shiite militias from Iraq and Lebanon holding down locations around the city of Idlib in the hope of playing a role in deciding the future of the north and taking revenge for the US sanctions against Iran. The Syrian opposition lacks an effective presence on the ground due to Moscow's hardline positions and its abandonment by many regional and international powers. It is now restricted to certain areas of northwest Syria and is no longer seen as important in the world's eyes. It has increasingly identified itself with Turkey in the absence of other forms of support, and Turkey has represented the Syrian opposition at the Russian-sponsored Astana and Sochi meetings, making the opposition groups in the north Turkey's representatives in this part of Syria. Moscow has reduced the size of opposition military forces and pressured them to participate in drafting a new constitution for Syria that will leave the regime intact. The latter controls areas of northern Syria through various local warlords, and these are also supported by Russia to ensure its continued influence in areas under its control. The regime is also very present in areas under Kurdish control, including in Al-Qamishli, raising questions about Kurdish ties to the regime especially since the Syrian Kurds are allied with the US and the regime is allied with Russia. Competition in northern Syria among these different forces is continuing in the form of a cold war and limited military battles, suggesting a pattern of fragmented and hostile “emirates”. The next few days could reveal what northern Syria will look like in the future, since this pattern may serve as a foundation for finding a solution to the wider conflict. It seems unlikely that all the warring parties will reach peace and more likely that the US will impose the stability it wants in the region, perhaps in return for Russia tightening its control.
