The majority of the Iraqis who went to vote in the country's 12 May elections wanted two things: a new political leadership and an end to the country's deadlock. The question is whether they can have either. Having already disappointed voters with an election marred by a boycott and accusations of fraud, Iraq's politicians managed this week to end a four-month government stalemate and elect a new speaker of parliament. But the election of pro-Iran Mohamed Al-Halbousi as speaker of the new 329-seat parliament has been mired in allegations of collusion with Iranian proxies to influence the elections by paying massive amounts of cash for the post. Al-Halbousi defeated three other Sunni candidates, including outgoing Iraqi Vice-President Osama Al-Nujaifi and former defence minister Khaled Al-Obeidi and winning the position with 169 votes. Al-Obeidi, who won one of the seats for the northern Iraqi city of Mosul in the May vote, was backed by the list of outgoing Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi and Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr. Al-Halbousi received most of his votes from lawmakers who belong to the pro-Iran bloc Al-Fatah or the Conquest Alliance led by Hadi Al-Amiri and members of the Iraqi Kurdish factions. His election is expected to boost parliamentary alliances backed by Tehran, and it adds more weight to Iran's influence in Iraq. It also marks a sharp division within Iraq's Sunni community, which has been battling the country's Shia-led government over power and wealth. Iran was quick to welcome Al-Halbousi's election. Speaker of Iran's Shura Council Ali lrajani said he expected bilateral relations to further improve following the vote. The new speaker headed the Iraqi parliament's financial committee before he quit in 2017 to become governor of the Sunni-majority province of Anbar, a key battleground in the war against the Islamic State (IS) group. Born in 1981, Al-Halbousi is a political novice, however, who is backed by an influential Anbar tribe that runs massive businesses, a political party and media outlets. The parliament also elected two deputy speakers. During the fight to expel IS militants from Anbar province, many of Al-Halbousi's tribe joined the fighting along with the Iraqi security forces and the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF) that it an umbrella group for Shia militias. Their participation was viewed as a critical ingredient in the fight against IS and in giving direct Sunni support to militias that are abhorred by many other Sunnis. After the vote, Al-Halbousi vowed that he would promote “real reforms,” particularly after recent demonstrations in Iraq's oil-rich southern city of Basra turned violent as protesters demanded improved public services and railed against corruption. Under Iraq's post-2003 Constitution, the parliament should sit within 30 days of its first session to elect by a two-thirds majority the country's next president. He will then task the majority bloc in parliament with forming a new government, the outlines of which must be referred back to the assembly for final approval. According to an unwritten power-sharing protocol in Iraq, the prime minister must be a Shia, the president a Kurd and the speaker of parliament a Sunni. The first and second deputy speaker must be from the Shia community and the Kurds, respectively. In balloting that has ignited the debate about money and its power in politics, fears about bribes securing the election of Al-Halbousi have loomed large. Accusations of bribes paid to dozens of Sunni lawmakers to switch sides and nominate Al-Halbousi captured an outsized share of the criticism of his election. Lawmaker Majida Al-Tamimi of the Saroun bloc told a local radio that she had witnessed MPs showing their ballot papers to a senior pro-Iran Sunni politician who ticked a list he was carrying after making sure of the name on the paper. Al-Obeidi claimed that $30 million was paid “to buy” the nomination and persuade other candidates for the post to quit the race. Five candidates announced their dramatic withdrawal from the race a night before the voting. The Qatari-owned Al-Araby Al-Jadid newspaper quoted unnamed Iraqi government officials on Saturday as saying that pledges had also been made to allocate high-ranking government posts after Al-Halbousi's win. Media reports have suggested that the regional Sunni Arab powerhouse and Turkey had funnelled significant amounts of money into Iraq to interfere in the election process, apparently to fund the anti-Iran camp. Raed Fahmi, head of the Iraqi Communist Party and a member of the Saroun bloc of Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, demanded that the new parliament investigate the allegations. The election of Al-Halbousi, however, has underscored Iran's increasing influence in Iraq. Concerns have circulated over Tehran's possible interference in Iraq's May elections, and US Defence Secretary James Mattis has accused Iran of “mucking around” in them. Since the fall of the Sunni-led regime of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iran has continued to pursue a coordinated soft-power strategy throughout its sphere of influence, using political, economic and military tools to promote its agenda. Tehran's point man in Iraq, Al-Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani, and its Baghdad envoy Irij Masjidi had been shuttling between the offices of Iraqi groups in the Green Zone in Baghdad marshalling allies to tip the elections in favour of its allies. Now a similar bid to ensure a pro-Iran outcome is expected when the parliament meets next month to elect a president and a new prime minister. The endeavour underscores Iran's determination to resist any attempt by Washington and its Sunni Arab allies to push it back. Iran, which has a decisive influence in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, especially in Suleimanya, will most likely find that this supports its line, especially as the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, a political party, is viewed as a traditional ally of Iran in Iraq. It remains unclear, however, how this could impact the formation of a new government and end the political paralysis that has hit the country since the 12 May ballot. According to the Iraqi Constitution, lawmakers are supposed to elect a new prime minister within 15 days of the date of the election of the president. The prime minister-designate should then undertake the naming of the members of his cabinet within a period not exceeding 30 days from the date of his designation. But with the country's competing political blocs each claiming to hold a parliamentary majority, the vote on a new prime minister is expected to be hectic and to trigger a possible crisis. Caretaker Prime Minister Al-Abadi has probably lost his chance of re-election after his ally Al-Sadr refused to nominate him for a second term. The pro-Iran alliance led by Hadi Al-Amiri and former prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki has made it clear that Al-Abadi can have no place in the new government after having made his position clear in supporting US sanctions on Iran and trying to weaken its proxies. The final straw came from prominent Shia cleric Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who ruled out Al-Abadi's candidacy on the grounds that he lacked the necessary “efficiency and integrity” to be the new prime minister. This will certainly open the door for Iran to try to continue its soft-power strategy in Iraq to influence the selection of a new prime minister and eventually solidify its position as kingmaker in the country. The manipulation of the Iraqi elections and attempts by Iran to continue running the country and turn it into a winning field for its Revolutionary Guards commanders will be a main source for concern and uncertainty about Iraq's future. The risk is real and the risk is great that increasing the communal divisions in Iraq will lead to yet more chaos and therefore the country's further destruction and fragmentation.
