Everything was set for the June summit, the unprecedented encounter that is expected to bring together North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump in Singapore 12 June, less than a month away. It would be, if it takes place, a historic development of far-reaching implications for international peace and security. From March, when the startling news came out of the White House that President Trump had accepted to meet with the North Korean leader, till the release of three American prisoners in Pyongyang early this month, and notwithstanding the Inter-Korean Summit between Kim Jong-un and the South Korean President Moo Jae-in on 27 April, it was smooth sailing for all parties concerned— North Korea, South Korea and the United States. On the American side, preparations for the summit were being made to ensure its success. After all, President Trump and the members of the Grand Old Party, the Republicans, would love nothing more than a major breakthrough for American foreign policy before the mid-term elections in the US in November. They are afraid to lose their majority in both Houses of Congress. The US administration sent Mark Pompeo twice to Pyongyang in one month. The first time when he was still director of the Central Intelligence Agency, in the Easter weekend in April, and the second time, in his capacity as the newly-confirmed secretary of state on 8-9 May, to be on hand for the release of the three American citizens. He had met Kim Jong-un on the two occasions. This smooth sailing was marred, however, by two developments. The first was the appointment of John Bolton as national security adviser at the White House, 9 April. He is on record, from the days when he had worked with the Bush administration in 2002-2003, advocating the use of force against North Korea. In addition, he was on hand when Libya decided to put an end to its covert nuclear development programmes in 2002-2004. In the meantime, Pompeo, as secretary of state, made clear that the US objective from the expected summit with the North Korean leader was the denuclearisation of North Korea, insisting on the complete, verifiable and irreversible nuclear disarmament of the North. To make matters worse, from the North Korean point of view, South Korean and American Air Forces held joint military drills. The North Koreans considered these drills as a simulation of an invasion. Seemingly, Pyongyang had had enough. So, on Wednesday, 16 May, it decided to cancel a high-level meeting with the South, and threatened, moreover, to call off the June summit with the US president. The triggering point could, probably be, what John Bolton told a Sunday talk show on 13 May, that the Libyan model for denuclearisation could be applied in the case of North Korea; that is to say, complete dismantling of North Korea's nuclear infrastructure and shipping everything related to its nuclear programme to the United States. Kim Jong-un proved, once again, that he is the one who is in the driver's seat on the Korean Peninsula, and the one who is laying down markers for what to expect and not to expect from the historic encounter with President Trump. From the point of view of the North, the nuclear capacities that they have developed are considered their “treasured sword”. And they made clear in a message to the Americans, the South Koreans and all concerned powers that they would never accept the fate of assassinated Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, nor that of Iraq's Saddam Hussein. The withdrawal of the United States from the Iranian nuclear agreement, announced 8 May, by the same US president that Kim Jong-un would meet to reach an agreement on the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula did not help at all. For the question uppermost on the mind of the North Korean leader must be how to trust the great power, the United States, to keep its word under present and future administrations when it unilaterally withdraws from the agreements it signs. President Trump came to the rescue in 24 hours. Receiving the NATO chief at the White House on Thursday, 17 May, he stated that he is not considering the Libyan model when it comes to the question of denuclearisation of North Korea and added that the United States would offer the North what he called strong security guarantees in return for denuclearisation. However, he did not rule out completely the application of the Libyan model. He pointed out the Libyan model would “take place if we don't make a deal, most likely”. He also said something that went against his previous pronouncements on the issue; namely, the positive Chinese role in the unfolding of events in the Korean Peninsula, since his meeting at Mar-a-Lago with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April 2017. He said the new North Korean position came after the meeting Kim Jong-un had with President Xi. An implicit, and an unfounded accusation that the Chinese government quickly denied. The spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry stressed Friday, 18 May, that Beijing is “paying attention to the United States attitude to respect North Korea's security concern and desire for a solution. The essence of the Korean Peninsula issue is security.” In the meantime, the Chinese government welcomed the position adopted by President Trump in distancing the United States from the “so-called Libya model” for the denuclearisation of North Korea. President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, who has invested a lot of domestic, regional and international political capital in arranging the prospective summit, was scheduled to meet President Trump at the White House on Tuesday, 22 May, in a bid to ensure that the June summit would take place as projected. We will see if he succeeds in his genuine peaceful mediation between Washington and Pyongyang. One way to measure his success will be the toning down of official US statements concerning the denuclearisation of North Korea. Recently Senator Lindsey Graham (Republican, South Carolina) made a very alarming statement. He said, “here is what is going to happen: if we don't get a deal, and [Kim] continues to try to develop his nuclear programme, we are going to have a war, and he is going to lose it. He does not get that.” And talking to Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday, 20 May, Senator Graham said President Trump had told him three days before that he wants to end the North Korea issue in a “win-win” way, and that President Trump thinks that is possible, but that if the North Koreans pull out, “then we are going to end North Korea's threat to the American homeland in his first term”. With such statements by an influential Republican member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, no one should have any illusions concerning a quick resolution of the most intractable security issues (and the denuclearisation of North Korea is only one of them) related to the Korean Peninsula out of the June summit, if it takes place. Be that as it may, Washington will have to take Chinese reactions to any possible US attack on North Korea into serious consideration. On previous occasions, Beijing has made it amply clear that it would not tolerate any unprovoked military action against Pyongyang. The Americans should stop their sabre rattling. The writer is former assistant foreign minister.
