Is this week's Nuclear Suppliers Group in New Zealand all about two-facedness or not losing face, ponders Gamal Nkrumah Happy days are here again for the Chinese and Pakistani cohorts, or so you might believe if the critical proposed sale by Beijing of two nuclear power-generating reactors to Pakistan is clinched. The problem is that the West believes Beijing deserves to be pegged back. The lack of coherence concerning the international proliferation of civil nuclear technology extends beyond the rights and wrongs of what countries are entitled to enter the exclusive nuclear club. This weekend, the 46-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) meet in Christchurch, New Zealand -- China is a full-fledged member of the NSG, and so is the United States. Israel, Pakistan and India are not, nor are they signatories to the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT). All three, however, have long been in the race to construct new uranium enrichment plants and are under no obligation to divulge information about their nuclear arsenals or share their nuclear agendas with the United Nations' watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IATA). Beijing's decision to supply Pakistan's Chashma nuclear site, in the Punjab, Pakistan's economic powerhouse and most populous province next door to India, would not violate NSG commitments, China contends, nor mar the international standing of the People's Republic as an aspiring "principled superpower". Western powers vehemently disagree, and a row threatens to erupt in New Zealand over the weekend. For all the fresh turmoil it would entail, a tug-of-war between China and the West over the sale of civil nuclear technology to Pakistan is bound to hasten the global political realignment in Asia and the world at large. Moreover, the proposed China- Pakistan nuclear deal if indeed struck will prove that China, in addition to its economic clout, has one more means of coercion. Namely, the nuclear option of making political capital out of supplying nuclear technology to countries on which the West frowns. Fears that this deal would destabilise South Asia are overdone. The NSG permits member states to export civil nuclear technology to a wide range of countries that differ in ideological orientation and degrees of economic development. At any rate, China does not have any qualms about offending the US as far as this prickly question is concerned. What is Pakistan up to? It has already produced the Islamic nuclear bomb -- the world's only Muslim nation to do so. Pakistan is the chief ally of the United States in the war against international (read Islamist) terrorism and yet it remains a regional hub of terrorism and a breeding ground for the most militant of Islamists. Most telling of all are the stirrings of disquiet in Pakistan, perhaps Washington's most steadfast ally in the Muslim world. The Pakistani conundrum lies in the curious predicament that while the country is officially a staunch Western ally, most Pakistanis are far more sympathetic to their co- religionists in the Muslim world than to their American friends. The same challenge applies to scores of predominantly Muslim nations that consider themselves allies of the US. Nevertheless, the vital difference between Pakistan and the other Muslim allies of America is that Pakistan is a nuclear state with a considerable nuclear arsenal. In the past, Pakistan has diverted its nuclear expertise to prop up clandestine nuclear weapons programmes to states pronounced as pariahs by the US. Clearly the question of culpability cannot be avoided. Fanning the embers of a future apocalyptic clash of interests in South Asia, Pakistan is caught in a vicious circle. More than ever the country needs strong political leadership. The government of Pakistani President Asef Zardari and his prime minister did not create this mess. The Pakistani government inherited a country that was virtually ungovernable, wracked by poverty and riven with religious fanaticism and strife. The jobless youth of Pakistan are getting desperate. Terrorism and violent protests are quickly spreading throughout Pakistan. Successive governments have failed to come up with a formula that can placate simultaneously both the marginalised poor and the propertied money-grubbers. Resentment and frustration among Pakistani peasants and proletariat are casting a shadow of doubt on Pakistan's political future. Just as disastrous, from a Western point of view, is that Pakistan's collaboration with China to build up Islamabad's nuclear arsenal strengthens the hand of militant Islamists intent on creating an "Islamic bomb." This is feeding antipathy towards both Pakistan and the People's Republic by Western political circles. The Western world is getting queasier about what it perceives as the People's Republic rather robotic support for Pakistan's nuclear programme. Unperturbed by Pakistan's predicament, China sees in the nuclear deal an economic opportunity. Politically, China feels a certain affinity with Pakistan even though the two are worlds apart in terms of ideological orientation. "Communist" China and "Islamist" Pakistan are both uneasy with Western-style democracy. Indeed, the Chinese are at loggerheads with their own Islamists in nearby Xinjiang. In sharp contrast to India, China was not created with a Western-style, democratic constitution . Pakistan, too, has a dilemma with its own Islamists. Pressuring Pakistan will result in militant Islamists over-running the country with virtual impunity -- the bomb in hand . The "nuclear deal" has put the spotlight on China, rather than on Pakistan. "I want to stress that the civilian nuclear cooperation between China and Pakistan is in line with each side's international obligations. It is for peaceful purposes and is under the supervision of the IAEA," stressed a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson on the eve of the NSG conference in New Zealand. Yet, to Western eyes, Beijing is obviously obfuscating. First, over Iran by watering down harsh Western sanctions and endorsing a Turkish and Brazilian scheme to swap low-enriched uranium from Iran in exchange for higher-enriched fuel for a research reactor in Iran. Second, by announcing a deal to sell Pakistan civil nuclear technology. The West will squeeze Pakistan till the pips squeak. It is in the mood for tough decisions over nuclear matters, and so is India -- Pakistan's traditional rival that is belligerent about Beijing's decision in spite of New Delhi's rapprochement with both Islamabad and the People's Republic. The ostensible goal is to strengthen Pakistan and not to weaken India, the Chinese contend. China is not particularly interested to see Pakistan as South Asia's whipping boy. The international community, including India, is sceptical about such projections. Neither is the People's Republic particularly interested in pursuing an adventurous foreign policy. Beijing is far more interested in lucrative economic exchanges. China argues the deal is in line with the US sale of nuclear fuel and technology to India in 2006 that the US pushed through the NSG two years later. But this is not about probing some dirty deal. Such a deal, after all, will test the mettle of the strategic partnership between China and Pakistan. The partnership has proven difficult already. Diplomatic relations with Western capitals and especially Washington have been severely strained. There are those in Washington that want to portray it as a sinister precedent. The notion that Pakistan is not pulling its weight is just wrong. Islamabad has lessons to learn from the deal, as does the wider nuclear industry the world over. Pakistan is not one of China's naughty client states coddled by Beijing. Moreover, there is an international public interest argument in denying legitimacy to the Pakistani bomb. The crux of the matter is that Pakistan points up the limits of Beijing's policy of non-interference with its strategic partners in Asia and around the world. Pakistan is not particularly interested in risking another war with India -- the two countries have gone to war three times since independence from Britain in 1947. Peaceful coexistence is an expression found on the lips of both Pakistani and Indian policy-makers at the moment. Every indication suggests India would prefer a stable and prosperous Pakistani democracy to a failed state on its northwestern border. India fears Pakistani political instability more than it does the Pakistani nuclear bomb. What the West and New Delhi fear the most is the Pakistani weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of militant Islamists. "We have to wait and see what happens. However, there can't be an easy way out of this by allowing Beijing to grandfather the deal," Sachin Parashar pontificated in the Times of India. Domestic Pakistani factors come into play. There is evidence that Pakistan is using the deal and its nuclear power to consolidate the government's political base and to suppress freedom in politics and the media on grounds of political and national security. "We have asked China to clarify the details of its sale of additional nuclear reactors to Pakistan. This appears to extend beyond cooperation that was grandfathered when China was approved for membership in the NSG," US State Department spokesman PJ Crawley was quoted as saying this week. This is all easier said than done. The focus has been on the blame game. The unpalatable alternative is to accept less secure and more expensive energy supplies. China, however, prevaricates. It has let down Iran recently. "Tehran would be shortsighted and unwise if it merely manipulated the fuel-swap deal as a tactic to stave off more UN-led sanctions," warned the Chinese English language Global Times in a recent editorial. The Muslim world is wondering: what is the Chinese deal? What is Beijing's agenda? Beijing is sending mixed signals. "Implementing the fuel-swap deal is certainly one option for Tehran to assure the world of the sole peaceful purpose of its nuclear programme," Global Times concluded. China's defence companies, in an unprecedented development, participated at Europe's largest weapons exhibition at Eurosatony, France this week. It is typical of China's entrepreneurial spirit. In sharp contrast, less market savvy Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state and yet it is a country where crushing poverty is unabashedly on parade. There may be wisdom in such a pessimistic prognosis of Pakistan. Yet why does the West refuse to make a fuss when it sells India, which has an active nuclear weapons programme, sophisticated civil nuclear technology? "It strengthens the sense of double standards," warned Mark Fitzpatrick, chief proliferation expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Islamabad, too, is guilty of incoherence. Anger and denial are hardly surprising. The West is convinced that Pakistan is off-kilter and is headed for a reckoning. The US-India deal set a "dangerous precedent". This is a wake-up call. Apparently, it's not enough to be in Washington's good books to be qualified to purchase sensitive technology. What's more important when it comes to the crunch is to have an anti-Muslim agenda.
