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Close to the abyss
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 05 - 10 - 2006

Ahead of Rice arriving to seek creative ways of getting rid of Hamas, fighters loyal and opposed to the Palestinian government go on the rampage, reports Khaled Amayreh
Sporadic gunfire continued to be heard in parts of the Gaza Strip for the second consecutive day despite appeals for calm from Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh. Renewed violence occurred after Fatah militiamen attacked several "Hamas targets" including a mosque at Berij Refugee Camp, a charity in Salfit in the central West Bank and the homes and offices of several Hamas-affiliated lawmakers.
On Sunday, 1 October, a bloody showdown between armed Fatah personnel and Hamas-backed security forces killed at least eight Palestinians and injured as many as 100 others. The disturbances, the gravest since Hamas won legislative elections in January, began when armed Fatah militiamen, including policemen loyal to Abbas, took to the streets in downtown Gaza to protest the government's inability to pay salaries in full.
Protests turned nasty as policemen and militiamen began firing heavily into the air, blocking main thoroughfares and emptying trash bins onto the streets, opening the door to general chaos and lawlessness. The government, coming under strong public pressure to restore law and order, then ordered the deployment of the 3,000-strong Hamas-backed "Executive Forces" with clear orders to restore order. The two sides exchanged fire during which eight were killed.
In the West Bank, Fatah activists retaliated by attacking, ransacking and burning a multi-storey compound housing various Palestinian government ministries. There was also an attempt to burn down the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Ramallah. Several cars belonging to individuals affiliated with Hamas were torched as well as a number of charities run by people with Islamist orientation.
Fatah says the "revolt" is only a protest against the government's failure to pay salaries due to suffocating American-Israeli sanctions. Hamas, however, called the disturbances a CIA-backed attempted coup aimed at toppling the democratically-elected government and replacing it with another run by corrupt Fatah elements that would sell out the Palestinian cause for personal privilege and money.
Alarmed by the bloody intra-Palestinian fighting during the holy month of Ramadan, and especially at a time when Israel's occupation army continues to murder and maim Palestinians, bombing their homes on a daily basis, both Abbas and Haniyeh appealed for calm. Abbas demanded an end to armed protests and urged the government to withdraw its Executive Forces from the streets.
Abbas also stressed that he would never allow civil war to materialise, adding that he would soon resume efforts to form a government of national unity with Hamas. Abbas was seen recently as dragging his feet on the subject of a national unity government, which many Palestinians hope would lead to a relaxation of the American-led blockade.
Haniyeh reciprocated, calling for calm and unity, saying it was unthinkable that Palestinians should be killing each other, especially at a time when the Israeli army was reinvading northern Gaza.
Palestinians, however, are not taking assurances by both Abbas and Haniyeh seriously for the following reasons. First, Abbas is not firmly in control of both poorly disciplined Fatah-affiliated security forces and Fatah loyal activists. Indeed, while Fatah activists were torching government buildings in Ramallah, Abbas's Presidential Guard was watching passively.
Second, the suffocating economic conditions in the occupied territories, brought about by a nearly hermetic financial embargo on the PA, which is also exacerbated by the withholding by Israel of Palestinian tax revenues amounting to nearly $55 million per month, are bound to generate an implosive situation sooner or later. Indeed, thousands of families have already been pushed to the edge of starvation.
Third, Abbas is reportedly coming under intensive pressure by the US and some Arab governments to get tough on Hamas, even, if necessary, ousting the government altogether and declaring a state of emergency. While such a scenario might work in other, mostly authoritarian, Arab states, it is however unlikely to work in the Palestinian situation. Indeed, declaring a state of emergency would require a strong and disciplined security force as well as a high degree of freedom of action: neither exist in the occupied territories due to the Israeli occupation.
Moreover, a state of emergency could eventually lead to a bloodier showdown in Gaza where Hamas is believed to be stronger than Fatah. The showdown witnessed between Fatah and Hamas has already upset neighbouring Arab states, such as Egypt and Jordan.
On Sunday, President Hosni Mubarak voiced anxiety over what was happening in the occupied territories. "How could we call on the international community to help push for peace and risk being faced with questions regarding what is currently happening in the Palestinian arena? Do these events pave the way for the reinstatement of the peace process?" asked Mubarak.
Mubarak, who was having a Ramadan iftar banquet with visiting King Abdullah of Jordan, urged the Palestinians to immediately stop clashes and speak in one voice. "The Palestinians should have a unified voice, and should prove that there exists a Palestinian partner that can negotiate the establishment of an independent and legitimate state."
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Cairo on Tuesday where she met with eight Arab foreign ministers. Rice discussed ways and means to restart the virtually moribund peace process. Some Arab states have suggested that the US should abandon the dormant if not dead roadmap peace plan and go directly for the "endgame" -- namely declare how a final settlement should look.
Israel, which exerts tremendous influence on American politics and policies, vehemently rejects abandoning the roadmap since doing so would force the Olmert government, seriously weakened by the recent war with Hizbullah, to face the basic realities of the Arab-Israeli conflict, including such landmark issues as its withdrawal from the occupied territories, dismantling settlements, giving up occupied East Jerusalem as well as dealing with the refugees issue -- a central, indeed essential, component of any prospective durable settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Israel, and to a lesser extent the US as well, would argue that the main obstacle to reaching a settlement is the Hamas government and its refusal to recognise Israel's right to exist and end armed resistance to the Israeli occupation. This argument, however, is ridiculous and can be dismissed as a cheap distraction. Israel has been adamant for nearly 40 years in its refusal to give up the spoils of the 1967 War, as evident from the intensive building of Jewish-only settlements on occupied Arab land.
Rice is also likely to discuss "creative ways" to strengthen Abbas and weaken Hamas. Some Israeli press sources have predicted that Rice will empower Abbas financially in an effort to woo more Palestinians away from supporting Hamas, and in the hope that Fatah would be able to regain power. This tactic, however, had been used before when USAID paid millions of dollars to finance Fatah's election campaign in January. It failed then and will likely fail again.


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