As the northern Iraqi city of Mosul starts emerging from the dark shadows of the vicious rule of the Islamic State (IS) group and readies itself for peace alongside other Sunni-dominated provinces retaken from the terror group, Iraq's Sunnis are launching efforts to end the war within. Sunni politicians, tribal chieftains and businessmen are expected to gather in Baghdad on 15 July to adopt guidelines for the future and to probe ways of empowering the country's second-largest community in post-IS Iraq. The meeting comes in the wake of the victory over the IS “caliphate” declared by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi last week after Iraqi troops captured the last main strongholds of the militants in Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city. It also comes ahead of an international conference of donor countries that are expected to put billions of dollars into the reconstruction of Sunni areas affected by the war to drive IS out of Iraq. Advocates and organisers say the conference will bring together dozens of Sunni activists eager to participate in a post-IS political process in Iraq that they hope will end Sunni political marginalisation. Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament Saleem Al-Jubouri, one of the key Sunni politicians behind the event, said the gathering aimed at ending the national political stalemate and preventing further sectarian divisions in the country. Other Sunni leaders said the participants would try to outline a strategy for a new Sunni leadership to follow, including by integrating the Sunnis into the Shia-led government. Iraq's Sunnis have been rattled by the fragmentation of their leadership and the growing number of extremist elements that have battled the government since the country's Shia majority took power in Iraq following the US-led invasion in 2003. Most Iraqi Sunnis rejected the new order and accused the new Shia rulers of excluding their community from the government system and the country's vast wealth. While some Sunnis have reluctantly joined the new government, many have supported insurgents, mostly jihadists and reinvigorated former ruling Baath Party members, who have swept across Sunni-populated areas of Iraq and portrayed themselves as the liberators of the country's Sunni population. The Sunnis remained largely ambivalent when IS launched a major onslaught in summer 2014 and dramatically overran the Iraqi security forces to take control of huge swathes of territory in the country, including the three main Sunni-dominated provinces. But the territorial defeat of IS has created a new dynamic in Iraq that dictates that both Muslim communities now forge a new participatory political system in order to ensure final victory over IS and prevent Iraq from falling apart. The Baghdad meeting is therefore expected to build on a consensus that post-IS Iraq requires peace-building and reconstruction. It should broaden the recognition that stabilisation and national reconciliation are inextricably linked to the full range of a political settlement including the inclusion of the Sunnis. A report by the Combating Terrorism Centre at West Point in the US published last week stated that the threat of violence in Iraqi cities remained pervasive. The study warned that any military gains would fall short without increased efforts to restore the security, governance and economies of territory once held by IS. The report cited thousands of attacks across Iraq carried out by IS militants after areas were declared free from militant control in recent months. It concluded that the attacks provided new evidence that the group was reverting to its insurgent roots, foreshadowing long-term security threats. Meanwhile, displacements caused by the war against IS are a major problem in Iraq. In Mosul, almost half of the city's population of two million people have been displaced, according to the United Nations. In total, some three million people have been forced to abandon their homes in Sunni-dominated areas and are in desperate need of aid to return to normal life. Dozens of cities, towns and villages ravaged by three years of fighting now need to be rebuilt virtually from the ground up. Hundreds of thousands of houses have been flattened and city infrastructure has been shattered, and all this will need to be repaired before the authorities can return the refugees to their homes. In essence, the Sunni Conference marks a new spirit of realism among Iraq's Sunnis, indicating that their choice following the IS defeat is to embrace national reconciliation in order to end the 15-year deadlock. Sunni politicians have held a series of meetings in recent months to probe ways to restore the Sunnis' place in post-IS Iraq. The discussions in Doha, Amman, the Tanzanian capital Dar es Salaam (Dodoma), Geneva and Ankara have centred on Sunni participation in post-IS Iraq. But the discussions have also turned into a polemic between Sunni political groups that differ on a broader strategy for the community's future in Iraq. One of the contentious issues to have surfaced during these discussions has been whether the Sunnis should seek autonomy to secure their communal rights and interests or join to save the Iraqi state. While there has been much talk about a federal Sunni region in post-IS Iraq, federalism is still a suspect idea in most Sunni areas, since it is code for secession from Iraq. Judging by their records, the Sunni leaders are not expected to come out in a united front on federalism, but there are increasing signs that divisions are widespread on several other key issues. Also reflecting events on the ground and political statements made by rival factions, a broader institutional framework does not look possible until new local leaders with political capital emerge in the Sunni areas. The war against IS has rightly taught many Sunnis to be mistrustful of their politicians, and many are afraid that the Baghdad Conference is just an attempt to recycle a political class they accuse of colluding with their Shia counterparts and wanting to stay in power. What delegates to the Baghdad Conference should keep in mind is that their efforts in the past to find a unified platform and to end the disarray in the leadership have failed. But it is not too late for the Iraqi Sunnis to show that they can overcome the obstacles in the path of a solution and put together a coordinated plan for their future in a united Iraq.
