These are critical days, perhaps the moment of truth, for Qatar and its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Will they stay together, or will they split apart? To be fair, the relationship between Doha and its Gulf allies has never been straightforward. Over recent decades, it has seen at least as many setbacks as it has accords. Saudi Arabia's Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman Yet, over the past few years this grouping has slipped from a bid for political, economic and security integration, as declared by the GCC leaders in numerous statements, to the current crisis over policies and alignments. It is hard to convey the severity of Qatar's dispute with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that is at the core of the unfolding GCC crisis, yet its extent could be far-reaching. Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed The crisis may even have a severe adverse impact on other Arab countries and draw new dividing lines in the Middle East. It may give rise to a new syndrome of confrontation. Unsurprisingly, the United States has not simply been watching from the sidelines, and the Trump administration and former US officials and diplomats working as lobbyists for different interests have played a role in stirring up the crisis. The new row began when Qatar's official news agency QNA reported on 24 May that the emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, had criticised renewed tensions with Iran and expressed his understanding for the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas. According to the alleged statement, Sheikh Tamim also suggested in a televised speech at a military graduation ceremony held on the same day that US President Donald Trump “might not last long” in power. The hackers also purportedly took over QNA's Twitter feed and posted alleged quotes from Qatari Foreign Minister Mohamed Al-Thani accusing unnamed Arab governments of fomenting a plot against his country. The story sent ripples across the Middle East because of the controversial content of the remarks, including on sensitive issues such as Iran, the Arab-Israeli conflict, and relations with the United States. The authenticity of the emir's speech could not be independently confirmed, and no one has claimed responsibility for the alleged hack. But soon the mystery surrounding the episode began to unfold when Doha issued a robust denial saying that the remarks attributed to the emir were fake and that the emirate's official news agency had been targeted by a cyber-attack. The foreign minister said Qatar had been targeted by a hostile media campaign and promised his country would take action against the perpetrators of the hacking attack. Nonetheless, the bickering has exposed real tensions between Qatar and its GCC allies over a host of issues, including Doha's support of radical Islamist groups and its policies in Libya, Syria and Yemen, three key hot spots where the Arab regimes are pursuing diverse national interests. Taking advantage of the reports, Saudi Arabian and UAE-owned media launched an intensified media campaign against Qatar, and television talk-shows and newspaper commentaries targeted Qatar's government and its regional policies. Bahrain and Egypt joined Saudi Arabia and the UAE in blocking Qatari news websites, including the influential AlJazeera network and Huffington Post Arabic, which is believed to be funded by Qatar. The dispute underlines a larger crisis in the GCC family and has continued to reverberate across the Arab world, deepening the interregional sectarian divide. The row came a day after leaders at an Arab-Islamic-US summit in Riyadh unleashed a wave of condemnation of Shia-led Iran, blaming it for spreading terrorism and criticising what it called Iranian “interference” in the region. King Salman of Saudi Arabia organised the conference last month, seeking to boost the kingdom's endeavours to be seen as the leader of the Muslim Sunni world and to drum up support for its Trump-backed drive to contain Iran and its regional Shia allies. The Saudi strategy also aims at using the summit to create a larger Muslim Sunni bloc and a military and security structure that will work to box in Iran and its allies and suck them into the wars in Syria and Iraq and other Middle Eastern conflicts. This Saudi vision intends to turn all its GCC allies against Iran and stop them from establishing working relations with its Islamic regime, a requirement that would contradict Qatar's assertive foreign policy. But in a sign of dissent, Qatar sent its foreign minister to Baghdad after the summit in an indication of a thaw in relations with the Iraqi Shia-led government, Iran's main Middle Eastern ally. The crisis also reflects increasing divisions in the GCC over several other regional conflicts, with far-reaching geopolitical implications for the group's future. Tensions between Qatar and other Arab states over the Muslim Brotherhood group have also been growing. Egypt has repeatedly voiced concerns over Qatar's political, financial and media support of the Brotherhood and other Islamist organisations. The dispute with Egypt came to the fore following the ousting of former president Mohamed Morsi and his Islamist-led government by an army-backed uprising in July 2013. In March 2014, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar in protest over Doha's alleged interference in their affairs. Nevertheless, Qatar has maintained its close ties to the group, and it still hosts its exiled activists and supporters. One of the main issues of contention is Qatar's vast media empire, which is being used by the energy-rich emirate as a tool to promote its foreign policy and its ambitious policy agenda. Qatar now owns, runs or funds dozens of television channels, newspapers and media outlets in Arabic and other languages that broadcast or publish materials that sometimes are considered hostile or inflammatory by neighbouring countries. In addition to its flagship news network, AlJazeera, Qatar has launched Huffington Post Arabic, the Middle East Eye and Al-Arab Al-Jadeed as platforms serving its well-funded public diplomacy. The coverage of this array of media networks shows an inclination towards various Islamist groups, while providing invaluable platforms for opponents of Qatar's rival regional powers. On many occasions, AlJazeera has been accused of incitement, focusing on sensational, biased, troubling and depressing news and even fabrications. Qatar's agenda-driven media empire has led other super-wealthy Gulf nations, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to launch their own outlets to project their influence both regionally and globally. One of the adverse effects of this race to control hearts and minds has been the creation of a supportive group of journalists and anchors who serve the public diplomacy of these countries and thus provide public opinion with biased journalism. As the contention between Qatar and its partners continues, the future of the 36-year Gulf alliance remains under a cloud, casting doubts over Saudi-US plans to contain Iran and combat threats from terrorism. Jittery GCC allies and other Arab powerhouses such as Egypt are unlikely to accept what they see as Qatar's dangerous games in Iran and the wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen. Up until now, Qatar's allies in the GCC have seen it as the “black sheep” of the family — carping and difficult over many things, but indispensable to prevent the alliance from falling apart. But the Saudis and the Emiratis, who seem to have been leading the diplomatic and media offensive against Qatar, now appear to be fed up with a two-faced member playing on many sides. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seem determined to see this dispute as an opportunity to clip Qatar's wings and stop it from being a constant spoiler inside the GCC alliance. Yet, Qatar has managed to get away with similar actions during similar crises in the past, knowing that the GCC alliance and other Arab governments are divided and oriented to rally to the cause of the Saudis and the Emiratis. The controversy over the recent hack has revealed serious discord among the GCC partners, and anybody who thinks that the dispute will not have a deep impact on the Saudi-led approach, whether to contain Iran or to reshape the Middle East, is misguided.
