US President Donald Trump's cruise-missile strike on Syria on 7 April may have angered supporters who voted him into the White House for what they consider his betrayal of promises to halt US foreign military interventions. The 59 Tomahawk missiles, launched at an airbase in Syria from US Navy destroyers in the Mediterranean, might also have baffled analysts who noted the strikes have done little to change the battlefield in the war-torn nation. But while the bombardments' impact on the political dynamics in Syria's civil war remains unpredictable, the attack which coupled with a US military build-up on the Iraqi-Syrian border has begun reverberating in Iraq. Both the US military escalation and an upsurge in US threats against Iran, an ally of the Iraqi Shia-led government, have stirred fears of a new and dangerous trajectory in a country particularly vulnerable to conflicts in the surrounding region. The US missile attacks on Syria could shed some light on concerns of a new season of turmoil for Iraq. Last week, US commandos carried out a ground raid near the town of Mayadin in eastern Syria, underscoring a major shift in Trump's strategy in Syria. US military officials said that US Special Operations troops had targeted and killed a close associate of Islamic State (IS) group leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. On Sunday, another US commando unit raided a key IS post on the Iraqi border and rounded up a group of militants including one senior commander. The US is already carrying out airstrikes in Syria, and it has deployed troops and weapons including surface-to-surface rockets in the northern part of the country. In March, the US sent an additional 400 troops to Syria, including a team of Army Rangers and a Marines artillery unit. The troops are expected to be part of an operation to be launched by US-backed Kurdish forces to take back the Syrian city of Raqqa from IS. The surprise US commando operations in Syria have also come amid reports that the US has begun a military build-up in western Iraq in preparation for a major operation to support Iraqi forces in driving IS militants out from towns still under their control in the Iraqi Anbar Province. An Iraqi army officer was quoted by local media last week as saying that the forces, moved from a base north of Baghdad, had arrived at the Al-Assad military base near the Syrian border. There are at least 4,000 US troops deployed at military bases across Iraq, including hundreds at Habanera some 30 km south-west of the Al-Assad base. These are providing training and logistical and intelligence support to Iraqi forces. Meanwhile, a plan to bring in US security companies to help in stabilisation efforts in the Anbar Province seems to have been finalised, adding a new sense of suspense to events unfolding on the Iraqi-Syrian border. Under the plan unveiled by an investigative reporter, an alliance between private Pentagon contractors and members of wealthy Iraqi Sunni families would campaign for the future of the western Sunni region of Iraq. A report by Insurge Intelligence, a source of specialised information on the region, revealed that Jordan-based Iraqi Sunni businessmen had played a key role as intermediaries between the US military and ex-insurgents in the Anbar Province, with a view to recruiting them into joining forces with the US against the militants. The report by the group, which describes itself as a “people-powered watchdog,” provides a rare window into efforts underway to involve US security companies in policing areas taken back from IS. But the report by investigative journalist Nafeez Ahmed suggests that the mission also aims to promote the break-up of Iraq as the only viable way to defeat IS. The US-Iraqi network operating through front companies set up in neighbouring Jordan have apparently achieved notable successes, the report says. On 19 April the Saudi-owned Al-Hayat newspaper reported that the Baghdad government had signed contracts with US companies to secure the strategic highway linking Iraq with neighbouring Jordan and Syria. Quoting officials in Anbar Province, the paper said that some of the companies were already providing protection and security services to the US embassy and other American missions in Iraq. Al-Hayat said the US firms had subcontracted smaller companies and local tribes to take part in the security programme, which includes the deployment of guards and an integrated surveillance system along the more than 600 km highway. The officials told the paper that Iraqi security forces would be barred from participating in the US operation that has already been launched and is expected to expand to include vast swathes of territory in the Anbar Province. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi confirmed on 18 April that his government was seeking to hire “foreign,” including American, companies to run the highway as an “investment project.” Al-Abadi said the project would be run as a toll-road to cover the cost of security services and the rehabilitation of the desert highway which has been badly damaged by fighting with IS after its 2014 capture of the Anbar Province. While the details of Trump's strategy in Syria remain vague, the massing of US military power on the Iraqi-Syrian border raises enormous questions about the real intentions of the United States in the two beleaguered countries. Given the scope of the US military build-up in the area and the danger of mission creep of US troops, the Trump administration seems intent on expanding the US military presence and engaging more forcefully in the conflict. However, in order to make sense of these US moves there is a need for a broader political perspective that can link these developments on the ground with one another. A macro analysis can also help to see the impact of the trajectory on Iraq. In essence, the US seems to be acting more proactively in Syria and Iraq, both countries facing the threat of disintegration and an international and regional power struggle amid a shifting geopolitical landscape. Three key regional and international powers, Iran, Russia and Turkey, are now playing major roles in the Syrian crisis. The security vacuum in Syria has also lured in a dangerous mix of other players, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Lebanese and Iraqi Shia militias. Though the US has long been involved in the Syrian conflict, its role during the former Obama administration was not as important as those of these other players. The move by the US military to build up a huge presence in neighbouring Iraq reflects a new strategy that goes beyond Trump's incoherent policy of defeating IS or putting pressure on Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad towards an intention to fill the power vacuum that Obama has left in Syria. What Washington appears to be doing in Syria is creating a zone of its own inside the country that could secure US regional interests as the struggle over Syria by external powers seeking to impose their influence in the region intensifies. But the new approach by the US military and national security establishment in Iraq, whether intended as part of the Trump administration's strategy in Syria or just another way of putting pressure on the Al-Assad regime in Syria, could have dire consequences in Iraq. The redirection of Washington's policy in Syria towards military interventionism will require a radical realignment of the Iraqi government's strategy on several key issues, including its relations with Iran, a key ally of Al-Assad, the powerful Iraqi Shia militias, and the future of the country's Sunni community who will look to the US for more support in the quest for greater inclusion and autonomy. There are good reasons to believe that the present military escalation will draw the US deeper into the Syria crisis, and the day may not be far away when a political vacuum created by the conflict will force it to expand its influence in Syria in order to safeguard its own regional interests. The more the US becomes involved in Syria, the further this will deepen the ethno-sectarian divide that has led to the current crisis. Whether intentionally or not, this will likely lead to a demographic redrawing of Syria, with a Sunni Arab region under US protection being located next to Iraq. This will certainly be a recipe for disaster for Iraq's Shia community, which will find itself geographically cut off from Alawi-dominated areas in Syria. It will also increase concerns of a possible alignment between Iraqi and Syrian Sunnis on both sides of the border that could create more trouble for the Shia-led government in Baghdad. Even if this scenario fails to materialise, instability in eastern Syria caused by a long-term US military intervention would have potential consequences for instability in Iraq and possibly return the country to civil war and maybe eventual breakup.
