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Terror plots: Joining the dots
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 23 - 11 - 2016

On 20 November, Chief Public Prosecutor Nabil Sadek announced that 292 people would be tried before military courts on charges of forming 22 terrorist cells under the umbrella of the Daesh affiliate Sinai Province, perpetrating “terrorist and suicide attacks, primarily in North Sinai” and “twice plotting to assassinate President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi”.
Investigations into the assassination plots revealed one was to take place in Saudi Arabia while Al-Sisi was on pilgrimage in Mecca. It involved employees at the Swissotel near the Royal Clock Tower complex in Mecca. The conspirators monitored the movements of the Egyptian president and kept watch on the Saudi royal family's helipad in the Clock Tower complex. They also purchased materials from the Kaaki Bazaar in Mecca that could be used to manufacture explosives, hiding these on the 34th floor of the hotel where they believed Al-Sisi would stay. One of the accused told investigators his wife had offered to wear a suicide belt and blow herself up in order to distract security forces while the other members of the cell carried out the assassination.
The second plot was conceived by a cell comprising six Egyptian police officers who were once part of the policemen with beards campaign, and a dentist. The policemen, all of whom enlisted in the Central Security Forces in 2007, had received intensive training in the use of firearms.
The public prosecutor's office has linked the cell to several terrorist operations. They include the assassination of three judges in Arish, an attack against the hotel accommodating judges appointed to supervise the polls in North Sinai during the last parliamentary elections, and the planting IEDs on the road to Arish Airport.
Some of the accused made detailed confessions, providing information about the organisational structure of Sinai Province, the names of members and sources of funding. The cell members were assigned code names and issued with mobile phones which they used to communicate between themselves. They discussed ways of targeting the presidential convoy as well as plans to attack other public figures: Former Interior Minister Mohamed Ibrahim, who ordered the breakup of the Rabaa Al-Adawiya sit-in in 2013.
Security experts say Sinai Province was responsible for the bombings of the security directorate buildings in Daqahliya, Cairo and South Sinai. It has carried out numerous attacks against security checkpoints and other targets and recently altered its modus operandi to target civilians as well as military and police personnel. Sinai Province is thought to have between 150 and 250 trained fighters. They are split into cells consisting of seven to ten members. The group's recruitment initially focussed on Egyptians but soon expanded to include takfiri jihadists from Libya and Sudan and Western jihadists who entered Egypt on tourist visas.
It is believed Sinai Province procures most of its weapons from Sinai arms merchants whose trade has been damaged by the Egyptian government's decision to destroy the Sinai-Gaza tunnels, long their source of livelihood.
A day before the public prosecutor's announcement that 292 people would be tried before a military court on terrorist charges, a plea for reconciliation between the Muslim Brotherhood and the state was floated by the Brotherhood's Deputy Supreme Guide Ibrahim Mounir and posted on the group's Website.
Mounir appealed to the “wise men of the Egyptian people” and “wise men of the world” to develop a “clear formula for reconciliation” between the Egyptian authorities and the Brotherhood and noted there were honourable people in the military who could play an “important role” in this regard. He added that the Brotherhood realises that politics involves change and manoeuvring and all parties in Egypt should bear this in mind, “especially when no concessions can be made on principles, values and rights”.
Political scientist Saadeddin Ibrahim argues that the appeal, accompanied by other developments, suggests a “historical national reconciliation” is in the making. Among the signs pointing to this, he says, was Field Marshal Tantawi's appearance in Tahrir Square where he spoke with some members of the public about the need to live together as citizens of a single nation. Other signs include the decision to revoke the death sentences handed to ousted president Mohamed Morsi, the acquittal of Alaa and Gamal Mubarak, sons of former president Mubarak, in the “presidential palaces” case, and Mohamed El-Baradei's recent remarks about the bloodshed that occurred during the dispersals of the Rabaa and Nahda Square sit-ins.
Proposals for some form of reconciliation have surfaced repeatedly, beginning even before the breakup of the Rabaa and Nahda sit-ins though none of the formulas put forward so far has attracted serious attention from either the state or the Muslim Brotherhood. And now the situation has been further complicated by divisions in the Brotherhood between the group's old guard and younger members. While the former advocate compromise and relinquishing the demand Morsi be reinstated the latter regard reconciliation as an insult to the spilled blood of their peers.
A third development connected to the Brotherhood is the decision by the committee charged with managing the group's sequestered assets to confiscate the property of 46 more Brotherhood members and of five companies owned by Brotherhood officials.
Among the individuals whose assets are being confiscated is Abdel-Gawad Mohamed, former head of the Pharmacists Syndicate and a major shareholder in Ibn Sinai Pharmaceuticals.
Political scientist Ali Hassan believes the decision to sequestrate the assets of yet more Brotherhood members and the announcement by the public prosecutor that 292 Daesh affiliates will be brought before military courts underlines the authorities' determination to dry up the sources of terrorism in terms of funding and human resources.
Expert on Islamist movements Mounir Adib says the developments of last week, preceded by the failed Revolution of the Poor, point to the government working to achieve two aims. The first is to tighten its grip on Sinai and purge it of terrorists while eliminating sources of funding for terror from Muslim Brotherhood members and Brotherhood controlled businesses. The second aim is to pave the way towards a comprehensive reconciliation, though only after terrorism has been defeated. It is a strategy the government may well feel has been made more feasible by a regional and international situation that is less in favour of the Muslim Brotherhood - with the defeat of Hillary Clinton in the US elections and Ankara - the Brotherhood's main regional supporter – becoming increasingly embroiled in domestic crises and in Syria.
Another expert on Islamist movements who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity is far from certain the clampdowns and military trials of Sinai Province members will end terrorism any time soon. Sinai Province, he says, not only affiliated itself with Daesh but has adopted Daesh's tactics, particularly its encouragement of lone wolf attacks.


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