The situation in Syria and the Middle East is getting ever more complicated, with hopes of a promising start in proximity talks between the Syrian government and the opposition fading fast. At the end of January, Staffan de Mistura, the UN special envoy to Syria, announced that these talks would resume 25 February. This announcement came in the wake of a first round of talks between the two sides in Geneva that floundered before they had gotten started. Last week, the UN envoy said that the date has been postponed for 10 days, without setting an exact date to start the negotiating process set out in UN Security Council Resolution 2254. Meanwhile, the two task forces set up to discuss the modalities of a cessation of hostilities in Syria, as well as the delivery of humanitarian aid to besieged areas inside Syria, met last Friday in Geneva. The meeting of the humanitarian assistance task force was successful and aid convoys started immediately. The task force concerning the cessation of hostilities reached no agreement except to meet again. In a phone call between John Kerry, the US secretary of state, and Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, on 20 February, the two discussed the “progress” made by the task force in developing a draft set of modalities for a cessation of hostilities. However, on 20 February, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad said he would be willing to stop “hostilities” on condition that the ceasefire would not be used by “terrorists” to make gains on the battlefield. Armed groups, for their part, conditioned their acceptance of a ceasefire on Russia stopping the bombardment of their positions. Whereas efforts were being undertaken to move ahead with proximity talks, the Turkish army continued bombing positions held by Syria's Kurds in the northern part of Syria. Ankara made it clear that it will not allow them to reach Azaz, a Syrian town near the Turkish border. From a Turkish point of view, this is a red line. Otherwise, Turkey will use force to prevent such an eventuality. The Turks have even asked the United States to consider the Kurdish organisation, known as the YPG, a terrorist organisation. The YPG is backed by the United States and is considered a reliable partner in battling the Islamic State (IS) group. Turkish military pressure in northern Syria against the Kurds coincided with unconfirmed reports that the Turks and the Saudis could be considering a ground attack in Syria. Some Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, said that they would be willing to participate in such a campaign. The Russians warned against such a move and the Russian prime minister stressed during the Munich Security Conference in mid-February that such a ground operation would lead to a prolonged war in the Middle East. No one in the US-led global coalition to degrade and defeat IS wants to see a confrontation between Turkey and Russia. To make matters more alarming and grave, Ankara was the scene of a major terrorist attack on 17 February that targeted a bus carrying military personnel. Twenty-eight soldiers lost their lives and 60 others were injured. The following day Turkey suffered another terrorist attack against a military bus in Diyarbakir. Eight Turkish soldiers were killed. The two attacks were presumably carried out by the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers Party, that both Turkey and the United States designate a “terrorist organisation”. The Turks believe that the YPG are allies of the PKK, and they even call their fighters the “terrorists of Kobani”. But the United States has a different point of view. The spokesman of the US State Department said on 16 February that Washington continues to “support YPG efforts that are focussed on fighting and combating Daesh [the Arabic acronym for IS] on the ground in Syria”, adding that the United States views them “as an effective fighting force, but we have also been clear that we don't want to see them take actions or hold territory that is going to create tensions either with Turkey or other groups in the area”. The diplomatic focus has shifted to concentrate on reining in Turkey from taking precipitous actions on the ground that would inflame the situation further, and could possibly lead to an all-out war among the pro and anti-Assad sides. In this context, the White House has made determined efforts to show support for Turkey but, at the same time, dissuade Ankara from launching a ground attack in northern Syria. US President Barack Obama called the Turkish president on 19 February, two days after the terrorist attack in Ankara, and the two leaders pledged to deepen cooperation in the “fight against all forms of terrorism, including the PKK”. The US president also expressed concern about “recent Syrian regime advances in northwest Syria”, and made it clear that the forces of the YPG forces should not seek to exploit circumstances in this area to seize additional territories. He urged “Turkey to show reciprocal restraint by ceasing artillery air strikes in the area”. It has been revealed that Russia has granted a US request not to target American Special Operations Forces deployed in northern Syria. In return, Moscow outlined some areas — for example, airfields — that it does not want US planes flying close to. It is a woefully complicated situation in northern Syria, where the battlelines are difficult to pin down clearly and precisely. Any miscalculation on the part of the major powers involved in Syria could lead to a wider conflict that is in no one's interest. To make sure that that won't happen, a “cessation of hostilities” between the Syrian army and the “moderate armed groups” is a must. The writer is a former assistant to the foreign minister.
