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Can Libya turn a new leaf?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 30 - 12 - 2015

Meeting in the Moroccan coastal town of Skhirat on 17 December, representatives of Libya's two rival governments signed a peace deal envisaging the creation of a nine-member presidential council to run the country during an interim period of one year.
According to the deal, the internationally-recognised House of Representatives, based in Tobruk, will act as the main legislature. The deal, brokered by the UN after a year of complex negotiations, aims to strike balance between the two rival governments in Libya and unify the country against the threat of Islamic State and Al-Qaeda.
On 23 December, the UN Security Council endorsed the deal, which also calls for the formation of a government of national unity within a month.
But not everyone is pleased with the deal. Among those who refused to sign the deal are the two speakers of the internationally-recognised parliament based in Tobruk and the disbanded-then-reinstituted General National Congress (GNC) based in Tripoli. Other powerful militia leaders, perhaps concerned for their loss of influence, also resist the deal.
The UN envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, who helped mediate the deal, said that the large number of Libyan public figures present at the signing ceremony, and the high-level international participants, offer hope that the deal will hold.
Although it is encouraging to see the UN, neighbouring countries and major powers so intent on making this deal stick, the complex map of rivalries that the four-year conflict has spawned suggests that the road ahead is going to be far from easy.
The deal includes steps to defuse current hostilities through the formation of a government of national unity within a month and the holding of parliamentary elections in two years.
The chief delegate of the Tobruk-based parliament, Mohamed Shoaib, said the signing ceremony was attended by a majority of the members of Libya's two rival parliaments, which means that the deal has the support of most Libyans.
Meanwhile, Saleh Al-Makhzum, GNC chief delegate, said that the main task facing Libya now is to stick to the deal, despite persisting differences among rival groups.
Such words hold a lot of promise for Libya's future. But they are contrasted with the remarks of Akilah Saleh, speaker of the Tobruk-based parliament, and Nuri Abu Sahmain, speaker of the Tripoli-based GNC. Both of them dismissed the deal as illegal.
Others who oppose the deal include the country's former mufti, Al-Sadek Al-Ghiryani, and a faction within the Tobruk parliament known as the Interim Council for National Reconciliation.
Several militant groups have also refused to endorse the deal, including the Islamic militants loyal to Abdel-Hakim Belhaj.
While opposition by politicians may be overcome through consequent deal making, the disruption that militant groups can cause to the country's stability cannot be overlooked.
If these groups decide to carry arms against the new government, it would be hard to extract the nation from the current cycle of violence.
Still, there is every chance Libya may be turning a corner. Abdel-Raouf Kara, commander of the Mitiga military base in Tripoli, promised to offer every protection to the future government once it starts operating in the capital.
Remarkably, the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Justice and Construction Party, offered its blessing to the deal.
Such positions can be built upon to weaken opposition to the deal. And with military aid to the Libyan army, by both neighbouring and major countries, Libya may be able to turn a new leaf.


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