Though seemingly routed, the Islamic militants of Somalia are still a power to be reckoned with, writes Gamal Nkrumah These days, anything in the Muslim world seems to sell if you first paint it green -- green standing for militant Islamism, not for environmentalism. It has been yet another week of upheaval in Somalia. Somalia is a country that is, for all practical intents and purposes, 100 per cent Muslim. And Somalis are deeply religious; Islam a defining characteristic of their national identity. There are other Muslim ethnic groups in the Horn of Africa, such as the coastal Swahili people of Indian Ocean Rim East Africa and many of Ethiopia's ethnic Oromo and Afar people and other minorities, but Somalis have traditionally been the most zealously Muslim of all the ethnicities of the region. It is in this context that the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) has tremendous popular support in Somalia, even when seemingly defeated. It also has its political shortcomings and limitations. All was not lost as far as the CIC is concerned. Many of the CIC's critics are prone to verbal staleness over the country's political future. But all concur that the CIC has a powerful hold on the Somali populace. The battle for the Somali people's political loyalties is hardly over. The power of the warlords remains fragile. The CIC has been routed by the Ethiopians, aided and abetted by the Americans, but it is far from finished. In fact, all indications ominously point to their tactical regrouping and preparation for guerrilla warfare. The forces of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somali President Abdullah Yousef will most certainly not be able to cope with the onslaught that a militant Islamist insurgency will unleash. If the CIC is not appeased or pacified, it could mean war on a scale unforeseen in the Horn of Africa. The Americans will have to step in to save the TFG, and it is hardly unlikely that the Ethiopians will get bogged down in Somalia the way the Americans have sullied themselves in the quagmires of Iraq and Afghanistan. The fact is; the very moment Ethiopian troops withdraw from Somalia the CIC will re-emerge from its hiding places to run the country again. They are confident of their popularity among the Somali masses. President Yousef has pinned his hopes on the Americans and Ethiopians. He is also counting on the UN and the African Union. The TFG of Somalia, a full-fledged member of the Arab League, also desires the sympathy and succour of the Arab world. The Somali president is in an unenviable position. Somali history is studded with tales of heroism and bravery, but his people are poor and unrest is widespread. Nature also will take its toll. Flooding sent thousands of Somalis fleeing the country and there is always the possibility of an explosive situation that the next drought might spark off. If there was a moment when President Youssef needed the Islamists' power of rhetoric it was this week. Under these circumstances it was curious that his TFG closed down the local offices of the pan-Arab Al-Jazeera satellite television station. The Arabs generally are regarded by the TFG as being sympathetic to the cause of the CIC. Some members of the TFG regard even the goodwill of the Arab League with deep suspicion. Then there is the large Somali expatriate community in the oil-rich Arabian Gulf states. Somalia depends to a large degree on remittances from its sons and daughters abroad -- both in the West and in Arab countries. Most Somalis abroad are sympathetic to the cause of the CIC. They also resent Ethiopian interference in domestic Somali affairs. Much more is at stake than the ability of the TFG to crush the militant Islamists. When and if TFG politicians prove unable to resuscitate the country, the backlash will be unrelenting. Leaders of exiled Somalis also feel that TFG leaders are dwelling in a fools' paradise. They cannot maintain power without the backing of their Ethiopian benefactors. The CIC leadership has vanished underground, but they say it is only a tactical retreat. They believe themselves to be the natural leaders of Somalia, and public support underwrites their confidence. The bitter enmity between the leader of the CIC, Sheikh Dhaher Aweis, and the Somali president has lingered for many decades. This estrangement was always acutely noticeable whenever the Ethiopians stepped in -- and they did so several times -- to rescue Youssef when he was the self- styled leader of Puntland, in north-eastern Somalia. Today, Aweis is on the run again, but this is all. The Ethiopians are not likely to be seen scouring the Somali bush in order to find him. They know he has many friends, supporters and allies. Shorn of their control of the Somali capital Mogadishu, the CIC still holds political sway in the countryside. They now need coordination and inspiration to spur them on. Doubtless they are preparing already. Those who think the CIC is a spent force are mistaken.
