Many terms have been applied to the unfolding events in Jerusalem and elsewhere in the Palestinian territories that have entered their third week. Some call it the third intifada, others a popular revolution or new uprising, or the harbingers thereof. Regardless of the various names and descriptions, we are clearly before a Palestinian popular awakening that could persist for some time, or perhaps subside gradually, depending on the forcefulness of the Israeli response and efforts exerted by some parties to calm events. US Secretary of State John Kerry, for example, recently announced plans to take an urgent trip to the region to try to calm the explosive situation. I will not attempt, here, to delve, in great detail, into what triggered the escalation in the Palestinian territories. The causes are very clear. I will mention three chief ones. One is the lack of hope in the possibility of an acceptable solution to the Palestinian cause in view of the closed horizons to a just political settlement. The second is the hardline Israeli policies on the ground, especially with respect to Al-Aqsa Mosque, which has been repeatedly abused by Israeli officials, as well as settlers and extremists, and also with respect to Israeli settlement expansion that is relentlessly gnawing at the Palestinian body. Third, the Palestinian leadership has reached a point of despair at the possibility of any positive response from the Israeli government. This was manifested clearly in President Mahmoud Abbas's speech at the inaugural ceremony of the 70th UN General Assembly session, in which he tried to convey the message to Israel and the international community that any further prolongation of the current situation in the Palestinian territories is extremely dangerous. Accordingly, the equations are very clear. On one side is an Israeli party that persists in its extremist positions with impunity and has no intention to show any flexibility. On the other is a Palestinian party whose position is eroding and is growing weaker and more frustrated by the day. The only effective card it has left to play is resistance in its various forms, having lost all other forms of leverage due to Israeli intransigence and to the decline of the Palestinian cause in Arab priorities, which has worked to diminish international interest in promoting a political settlement. I should stress that I cannot exonerate the Palestinians themselves from blame in this regard, in view of the ongoing schism between the West Bank and Gaza and the failure to unify Palestinian action to counter the Israeli position. In addition to the foregoing, it is important to bear in mind that the current Israeli government headed by Netanyahu (backed by 61 seats in the Knesset) has entirely discarded the two-state solution, which is to say the creation of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state living side by side with Israel in peace and security. The most that the government will offer to the Palestinians is a fragile disjointed entity in the West Bank (regardless of what it is called) shaped by the most recent map of Israeli settlements and their support structures, and under the conditions of an intense Israeli military presence in important Palestinian areas, such as the Jordan (Al-Ghor) Valley, either permanently or for extensive indeterminate periods. Such a position contrasts sharply with a realistic Palestinian vision for a settlement that calls for Israel's return to the pre-1967 borders while remaining open to discussing all security and other arrangements on the grounds that these do not impede on the sovereignty of the envisioned Palestinian state and the well-known fixed principles for a solution — most notably those concerning Jerusalem and the refugees. In this context, we can understand the general climate surrounding the events in the Palestinian territories. We should recall that while the situation may seem calm for lengthy periods, it could explode at any time, as long as the tensions and its underlying causes continue to exist. Israel should not base its calculations on the belief that the Palestinian people have reconciled themselves to the status quo and that the chances of their rising up and fighting to secure their usurped rights have receded. Indeed, what we see today broadcasts a clear message that this people will remain steadfast and that they will not relinquish their rights whatever the obstacles, regardless of the intensity of Israeli security measures and however great the regional and international negligence of their cause. The Palestinian people will continue to use all available means to attain their ultimate goal, which is their natural right to live in an independent state, just as all other peoples in the world do. This is the very least that they merit. Whether the events in Palestine escalate or subside, we should consider taking advantage of them as quickly as possible and at several levels. I believe it is possible to pursue the following course of action. First, it is important to sustain the peaceful grassroots resistance in all Palestinian regions to win international sympathy and support. At the same time, the movement must distance itself from all types of actions that have caused sympathy and support for the resistance to dwindle. Second, cohesion must be built up between the Palestinian leaders and people. The peaceful resistance should not be working in one direction and the political leadership in another, or else matters will spin out of control. Third, the peaceful resistance must clearly remain a grassroots one. Palestinian political organisations, factions and regional powers should not try to take advantage of it for their own particular ends, so as not to distort this resistance, to cause it to deviate from its correct path, or become an instrument for political blackmail and bargaining in the context of longstanding problems and inflamed tensions in the region as a whole. Fourth, it is crucial to formulate a Palestinian stance that is made public and forms the basis of action. This must be done immediately, and the position must be explained clearly in light of the current situation and the reasons why it has reached this point. At the same time, the proposal for an acceptable political settlement must be put forward again clearly and succinctly, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) should demonstrate its readiness to resume negotiations — serious negotiations — with Israel on the condition that a clear frame of reference is set so that negotiations can ultimately attain their desired objective. Fifth, Egypt and other countries in the Arab world must act quickly to build on recent developments in order to bring the Palestinian cause back to the focus of international attention, regardless of the situations in other Arab countries. In working through the Arab League, we must not confine ourselves to an Arab League statement that has little effect. Rather, we must formulate a clear collective stance that includes a vision for a solution and a mechanism for action that proceeds from this vision at the international level. There is nothing to prevent the Palestinian drive from working in harmony with, or parallel to, the collective Arab drive. The PA should simultaneously give thought to how to turn the current situation into a movement to resume inter-Palestinian reconciliation efforts. Israel, for its part, should revise its position on how to handle the question of a political settlement to the Palestinian cause. There can be no hope for stability unless Israel takes tangible steps toward the two-state solution. The current government should propose its vision for this and demonstrate a willingness to enter into serious negotiations accordingly. It should take advantage of the opportunity of the presence of a man of peace of the calibre of Abbas to reach a political settlement during his presidency. The international community (the US and Europe in particular), meanwhile, should shift from being an observer to an active participant. It must work to promote the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations as quickly as possible, on a basis that is acceptable to both sides, so that the situation in Palestine does not spiral out of control and become another regional powder keg and additional source of instability. As the foregoing indicates, we are presented with a new and positive factor that emanates from within the Palestinian regions themselves. This factor should be optimised in an appropriate way, taking into consideration the time factor. This compels the Palestinians to assume the responsibility to sustain all facets of the peaceful grassroots resistance. But while keeping its flame alive, they must not allow it to be diverted to the benefit of any particular interest group or faction. This new element obliges the Arabs to act quickly and with resolve, as opposed to handling the situation through the usual emergency Arab League session followed by a routine statement. The international community, too, must act quickly and constructively with the concerned parties to promote a just political settlement. This is an opportunity to help the Palestinian cause and to force Israel in the direction of peace that needs to be grasped. If this opportunity is wasted, the situation will only go from bad to worse. The Palestinian cause will be plunged into an eddy that will fuel the blazes of conflict and warfare in the region. As President Abbas said in his speech to the Palestinian people on 14 October, the Israeli attack threatens to ignite a religious fuse that will spark a fire that will rage not just through this region but throughout the entire world. The writer is a head of Palestinian and Israeli unit at the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.
