One year ago, 10 June 2014 to be more accurate, a terrorist group known by the acronym Daesh, or the Islamic State (IS), had overrun Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, after four Iraqi divisions fled overnight. Not only the Arab world, but the whole world witnessed the unfolding chain of events, both in Iraq and Syria, where this terrorist group has consolidated its presence in these two important Arab powers. Today, the Islamic State organisation controls half of Syria and a third of Iraqi territory. This article is not about the reasons behind the rise of Al Qaeda affiliated terrorist groups in the Middle East, such as IS or Al-Nusrah Front, but rather about the situation on the ground, today, one year after the partial dismemberment of Iraq and Syria, and particularly Iraq. The Iraqis lost Ramadi, the capital of Al-Anbar province the largest Iraqi province from a geographical point of view, and the strategic gateway to Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia two months ago to IS. Like in Mosul last year, Iraqi forces just disappeared into thin air to enable IS fighters to enter the city without resistance. Ramadi is still under the control of IS, and no one could predict when Iraqi forces will launch an all-out offensive to retake the city. This is a must from a military point of view, if the Iraqi government decided to liberate Mosul. In spring, news came out of Iraq that Iraqi forces were preparing for Mosul's liberation, but that the fall of Ramadi changed the strategic situation to the detriment of the Iraqi government. The fall of Ramadi was all the more surprising because the international coalition to degrade and defeat the Islamic State, under the command of the United States, has been assisting the Iraqi army, to make it a fighting force to reckon with, and training it to confront IS on the battlefield. In this context, the United States has already deployed 3,550 military personnel during the last 12 months, in order to train, advise and assist Iraqi forces. After the fall of Ramadi two months ago, the Americans, following consultations with the Iraqi government, ratched up its support. US President Barack Obama announced in early June the sending of an extra 450 American soldiers to be deployed at Al-Taqaddum Airbase. According to a high US official, the deployment aims to provide “personnel to assist with planning, integration, logistics and support to the Iraqi security forces and tribal forces as they fight to retake Ramadi and Fallujah, and ultimately all throughout Anbar province.” One of the most relevant questions in trying to have a clear idea about how the military situation will evolve in Iraq is whether the Iraqi army would be able, on its own, to regain full control of Al-Anbar. In other words, is the Iraqi army strong enough and motivated enough to defeat IS on the battlefield? At this point in time, it is very risky to give an affirmative answer. The latest military, diplomatic and political developments have proven that the United States is playing a leading role in assisting the Iraqi government in its preparations for the liberation of Iraqi cities and territories from IS control. Mr Ben Rhodes, deputy national security advisor for strategic communications at the White House, said 10 June that the US strategy in Iraq would work best when Washington has what he termed a “capable partner” on the ground. He stressed that the decision of President Obama to send an additional American contingents to Iraq aims at reinforcing two important elements in US strategy: namely, the strengthening of Iraqi forces, and supporting an inclusive approach to Iraqi politics and security. A third element in this strategy is to work with Sunni tribal forces that the United States considers and rightly so essential in conducting operations against IS. Ms Elissa Slotkin, assistant secretary for defense for international security affairs at the US Department of Defense, in a press conference call with Mr Rhodes and other US officials on 10 June explained that the additional deployment would play an advisory and support role, as well as mission control and intelligence, in addition to force protection at Al-Taqaddumia Airbase in eastern Anbar. The course of events in Iraq from last June to June 2015 has proven that the Iraqi army is not yet ready to regain Iraqi territories lost to IS without direct and substantial US support, which has been increasing in quantity and quality. Former US president George W Bush said after President Obama decided to send the 450 extra troops to Iraq that ground forces would be needed to defeat IS. I am also afraid there will be no other alternative if we seriously want to annihilate IS and other Al-Qaeda affiliated groups in Iraq and Syria. Of course, the former US president was speaking about defeating IS in Iraq. But to defeat this terrorist organisation, we will have to fight it in Syria and Iraq. And to defeat it in Syria, there is no other option but to work with the Syrian army, which is more battle-hardened and a more effective fighting machine than the Iraqi army. The writer is a former assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister.
