Following the crisis in Ukraine and the Russian annexation of Crimea, the US reacted by imposing heavy economic and financial sanctions on Russia, together with attempts to isolate Russia internationally. The sanctions inflicted a blow on the Russian economy; the Russian ruble lost 70 per cent of its value. Russian leader Vladimir Putin moved to counter American pressure by building alliances with other powers, mainly China and India. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reminded the US that there are no regional or international problems that can be solved without Russian participation. Although the US boycotted Russian celebrations of its victory in World War II, for Russia victory came three days later when US Secretary of State John Kerry announced an unexpected visit to the Black Sea resort town of Sochi, the summer residence of the Russian leadership. On 12 May, Kerry held more than four hours of talks with President Putin and Russian counterpart Lavrov, the latter of whom he had met earlier. The main topic of that discussion was the general situation in the Middle East, the Ukrainian crisis, disarmament in the Middle East, the Syrian crisis, the Iranian nuclear programme and terrorism issues. Kerry tweeted that the discussion was “frank, effective and cordial.” Lavrov described the day of discussion with Kerry as the beginning of a fresh dialogue that might lead to broader cooperation on regional crises. He stressed that both sides supported and believed in “peaceful solutions” that should be reached by the Syrians, and that “concerned parties” had to be “included to solve [the crisis].” This was widely interpreted as a signal of surrender by the Americans: the offer of an olive branch from President Obama, and an acknowledgement that Russia and its leader are simply too important to ignore. This meeting on the Black Sea represents a fresh attempt by the Obama administration to pursue a political solution in Syria after years of frustrated diplomacy and deepening violence. “This trip is part of our ongoing efforts to maintain direct lines of communication with senior Russian officials and to ensure US views are clearly conveyed,” said a US State Department spokesperson, adding that the topics discussed included “a full range of bilateral and regional issues, including Iran, Syria and Ukraine.” The Obama administration previously sought to work with Russia on Syria without success. Two years ago, Kerry met with Putin in Moscow and announced that the United States and Russia would convene an international conference to try to end war in Syria. In February 2014, the Russian delegation declined to lean on the Syrian delegation to negotiate a political solution, even though the UN secretary general's invitation clearly stated that this was the purpose of the negotiations. US officials are hoping that the reversals of fortunes of President Bashar Al-Assad on the battlefield will give Russia an incentive to withdraw support for the Syrian leader and cooperate with the US on ways to encourage a political transition to a post-Assad government. The two sides are also expected to discuss the apparent decision by the Assad government to start using chlorine gas again, and possibly other chemical agents. Russia and the United States drafted the 2013 agreement that required Syria to get rid of its arsenal of poison gas. Allegations about the use of chlorine bombs suggest that the pact was less successful than hoped. “We made progress on chemical weapons,” a State Department official said, adding: “There is more to do.” Kerry, meanwhile, is expected to restate US objections to Russia's sale of the S-300 air defence system to Iran, after Putin recently rescinded a ban on the sale of weapons to Tehran. Nevertheless, with oil prices seeming to have stabilised after a modest recovery, and the ruble rebounding so strongly from its prior collapse that the Russian Central Bank has begun buying dollars to keep it from appreciating further, Western economic sanctions seem to have fallen short. There are now signs that Europe's appetite for economic warfare with Russia is flagging and it seems increasingly likely that Brussels will allow the sanctions to expire in July.The subtle shift by the Obama administration reflects pragmatic recognition that the policy of isolating Russia, economically and diplomatically, is failing, analysts say. “They thought Russia had become so much part of the world market, depending on it so much, that it would be enough to frighten Moscow a little to make it surrender,” Russian analyst Viktor Kremenyuk said. “In reality, it's all different. Russia not only withstood sanctions but even introduced countersanctions and demonstrated that it is not going to turn off this road.” Kremenyuk added, “The US cannot simply capitulate. This is why the policy change begins with statements like, ‘We shall assess the situation.' In fact, this is a cautious departure from the policy of sanctions.” Kremenyuk and other analysts believe that the major motivation of the US is to seek Russian assistance on other, more pressing problems. “There are some issues in which the Americans cannot make progress without Russia,” Kremenyuk told Svobodnaya Pressa. “For instance, Iran and the Iranian nuclear programme. Or Syria, where nothing can be done without us. Of course, they will not yell, ‘Help us!' No way. But within the last couple years, Americans found some areas in the Middle East where they cannot do much, but Russia can.” Alexander Baunov, a senior associate at the Carnegie Moscow Centre, said that based on a recent visit to Washington he believed that Middle East issues were more important to the Americans than Ukraine. Baunov added in interview: “Not to achieve the final deal with Iran would be a big defeat for [Obama], so he needs Russia for this.” Baunov said that ultimately Ukraine mattered more to Russia. “Russia is ready to sacrifice more for Ukraine than the West and the United States,” he said. “It is willing to sacrifice more economically and in lives than the West. Obama realises Americans won't do the same.” Adding to Kerry's visit to Sochi, on 14 May US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland conducted talks in Moscow with the Russian deputy minister for foreign affairs, dealing with the fields of bilateral relations and the situation in Ukraine. Nuland said that the US will continue to cooperate with Moscow to establish peace in Ukraine. The reaction of Russian officials indicated that Russia cannot exclude an improvement of relations with the US, while adding that US polices do not help in this direction. In the context of American signals of seeking cooperation with Russia, observers cannot ignore the European factor and their latest moves towards Russia. Aside from the V-Day visit of French President Francois Hollande, the Europeans particularly the Germans must have in mind their need for Russian gas, and for the Germans, in addition the 6,000 companies they have working in Russia. Nonetheless, in parallel to thawed US signals towards Russia, the US and NATO were antagonising Putin by undertaking large military exercises in Poland, Lithuania, Georgia, Estonia and the Baltic States. Military planners said these manoeuvres were intended as a warning that unlike in Crimea, where Ukrainian forces surrendered without fighting a shot, the Kremlin would face stiff resistance if it tried its tactics anywhere in NATO's territory. At the meeting of G-7 in Germany on 8 June, the leaders' declaration on the conflict in Ukraine included that the duration of sanctions should be clearly linked to Russia's complete implementation of the Minsk Agreement and respect for Ukraine's sovereignty. So there is a patchwork of mixed signals from the US and NATO, indicating the continuation of tension and antagonism, together with recognition that Moscow is needed in any attempt to address a number of regional conflicts. The writer is executive director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.
