Spurred on by the legions under his command in Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin argued this week in a widely televised speech that he needs to protect the Russian-speaking citizens of the Crimean Peninsula, still technically a part of Ukraine. Ethnic Russians make up 59 per cent of the region's population, while 24 per cent are Ukrainian and 12 per cent are Muslim ethnic Tatars who resent the Russian imposition, according to the 2001 census. Pro-Russian forces broke into the radio unit of a Ukrainian border checkpoint in the Crimean city of Sevastopol last week, the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea naval fleet, and it seems that Crimea has now opted to join Russia and secede from Ukraine. Nevertheless, the Russian authorities still plan on printing 2.2 million ballots for the scheduled referendum on whether Crimea is to join the Russian Federation. Indeed, on Tuesday the parliament of the autonomous Republic of Crimea voted overwhelmingly to join the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, the Western powers have made it clear that they will not accept the result of Crimea's 16 March separatist referendum, saying that the vote is “unconstitutional” and is unlikely to be free or fair. According to the Ukrainian government, “there is no other way to protest but to say to the international community that the results will not be valid,” Foreign Affairs Minister Andriy Deshchytsya said. Ukraine is heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, and so are several European nations, and this may complicate the Western response. Representatives of Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic solicited United States support in supplying oil and gas in case Russia retaliates in a letter to US House speaker John Boehner. Boehner then called on US President Barack Obama to “heed this call from our allies” and “do everything possible to use American energy to reduce the dependency on Russia for our friends in Europe and around the globe.” Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry have talked over the phone, exchanging views on the developments in Ukraine and the upcoming referendum on whether Crimea should secede and join the Russian Federation. With at least 6,000 Russian troops stationed in the Peninsula, and with a Russian-speaking majority, this is widely expected to be the case. The Russians do not see this as an annexation because of the haste in which the referendum was deemed necessary given the profound transformations of the past month. The attempt to integrate Crimea and possibly other parts of Ukraine into Russia has deep historical roots, and Lavrov warned against “hasty and reckless steps” that could harm Russian-American relations and told Kerry that sanctions against Russia would “boomerang” against the West. Historically speaking, the Crimean War of 1853 to 1856 makes up part of the background to the Ukraine, for all intents and purposes a composite state of rival ethnic groups and nationalities. The western half of the sprawling country has traditionally aspired to be part of Europe, and the Crimean conflict arose out of concerns about the country's future trajectory. It also arose as a result of a conflict among the great powers of the time over the Middle East, and the analogy with today's Syrian crisis is both ominous and compelling. The Crimean War was commanded abominably by both the Western powers and by Russia, and it is to be hoped that the situation in Ukraine today will not meet a similar fate. The fluidity that formerly existed between Russia and the constituent republics of the rest of the former Soviet Union made it necessary for Russia to maintain close supervision of certain strategic regions such as Crimea, whose purple vineyards twist and crwal across the Mediterranean-like climate distinguishes it from the rest of the country. Crimea has not always been considered to be Ukrainian territory. It has traditionally been peopled by Muslim Tatars as well as by the predominantly ethnic Russians and Ukrainians. According to the 1959 Soviet census, there were 268,000 Ukrainians and 858,000 ethnic Russians living in Crimea, but Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, himself an Ukrainian, decided to hand over Crimea to Ukraine as a “gift”. At the time, this seemed an inconsequential transfer, and yet in time it has acquired historical significance. While Crimea has never been the seat of Ukrainian national aspirations, Western nations continue to protest that it is part of Ukraine even though it was awarded to Ukraine by Khrushchev in the Soviet era. Crimea and eastern Ukraine in general have much in common with Russia, and other regions of Ukraine, especially in the southern and eastern parts of the country, support Russia and would possibly readily join it instead of remaining in Ukraine. The Black Sea port of Odessa and several industrial cities in eastern Ukraine could no doubt follow suit. The West regards developments in Ukraine in exaggeratedly apocalyptic terms. However, while Ukraine is a sovereign nation, it also has close cultural and economic ties with Russia and it was a cornerstone of the former Soviet Union. It is for this reason that Western leaders may be overreacting in protesting as loudly as they have to the region's secession. The Western powers have been most perturbed by the incursion of thousands of Russia troops into Crimea, and have not been satisfied by Russian retorts that Crimea, home to Russia's Black Sea fleet based in Sevastopol, cannot be allowed to bow to the will of the interim government in Kiev. Kerry has called the Russian incursion an “incredible act of aggression,” but it may be that it is the Western leaders' incomprehension of the political dynamics of Ukraine that is incomprehensible. The popular welcome of Russian troops in the Crimea and the eastern part of Ukraine has made Kerry's account of the unfolding events in the country not even remotely credible. Meanwhile, Kerry has threatened US economic sanctions on Moscow, stressing that “all options are on the table.” Not to be outdone, state department spokesman Jen Psaki reaffirmed the US's “strong support for Ukrainian sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.” However, the West earlier deemed it convenient to dismantle the former Yugoslavia, creating new mini-states in the process, and this shows that it is not averse to secession per se. However, an economically and militarily powerful Russia is not prone to such Balkanisation. “This is not, or should not be, East-West, Russia-United States, Russia versus Europe: this is about the people of Ukraine, people who stood up against snipers firing at them from the roofs, who are fighting against the tyranny of having the political opposition put in jail,” Kerry said. Unlike, Poland, which it is ethnically and linguistically affiliated, many western Ukrainians now leading the anti-Russia campaign enthusiastically joined the Nazis in World War II. In a less conciliatory tone, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that “what Russia is doing now in Ukraine violates the principles of the United Nations Charter. It threatens peace and security in Europe. Russia must stop its military activities and its threats.” But the West is obliged to accept the newly resurgent Russia as it is. It cannot order Putin to pull back his troops, even if some, like Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird have spoken of “Soviet-style aggression.” What Ukraine now requires is to keep the disgruntlement in check through a government headed by a steady, sensible hand. Many in the mainly Russian-speaking east and south of the country want closer ties with Russia, and neither the pro-Western politicians in Kiev nor their Western beneficiaries must overlook this fact. The foreign ministers of Britain and France said on Sunday that they were pulling out of the planned preparatory talks for the forthcoming G8 Summit in Sochi in protest at Russia's decision to send troops into the Crimean Peninsula. British Foreign Secretary William Hague warned Russia that there would be “consequences” if it did not pull back in its confrontation over Ukraine. “If Russia cannot be persuaded to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, there will have to be other consequences and other costs. I am not going to set out today what all of those are. We will act in a united way with other nations in the world,” he added. Dismissive of Russian power the West may be, but this latest confrontation has enormous significance. The West lost a round with Moscow over Syria, and the statements by Western leaders over Ukraine are also at risk of backfiring. What the West now requires is to quell its anti-Putin ardour, which has apparently reached fever pitch.
