Organisers of the conference of Libyan tribes in Cairo have announced a three-day suspension of activities following its inaugural session at 5:00pm on Monday. The reason given was that the representatives of the tribes in western and southern Libya had been prevented from attending this session due to the interruption in flights to Egypt from these areas. This contradicts earlier statements by the organisers only hours before the conference opened to the effect that more than 400 persons representing all Libyan tribes had already arrived aboard special flights to Egypt coming from Zintan in the west and passing through Tobruk in the east on their way to Egypt. In itself this sheds some light on the efficacy of the participant parties. The ambiguity surrounding the fate of the meeting of the Libyan tribes could reflect negatively on the host country and detract from its ability to communicate with the Libyan social components to which it is linked by ancient bonds in the interests of promoting understandings that could help restore calm in Libya. In addition, conflicting statements by organisers are indicative of poor organisation and lack of consistency. The major tribes in Libya have expressed their appreciation of the Egyptian position. However, they have refused to meet abroad and stressed in statements issued shortly before the due meeting that the participants there did not represent them. This refusal places the conference organisers and the Egyptian government in an awkward position and reveals how difficult it is to count on tribal cohesion against the current backdrop of strife in Libya. Although the organisers also announced that representatives from the Arab League, the EU, the UN, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other international organisations would be on hand, this too turned out to be no more than press statements. The UN Special Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has not yet issued any official statements on the conference, in spite of recent mentions that Marsa Matrouh would host a meeting of the tribes as one of the four main tracks of the Libyan dialogue, designated during the first dialogue sessions in January earlier this year. The parties opposed to the Egyptian-sponsored meeting of the tribes hold that its aim is to support the positions and interests of certain Libyan forces over others. This does not benefit Libyan social components and Libya in general, said sources contacted by Al-Ahram Weekly. Egypt attaches great importance to the Libyan tribes and believes that they can contribute considerably to the restoration of security and stability to Libya. Cairo's decision to host a meeting of Libyan tribes for the second time this week is consistent with and supports this position. But on top of poor organisation, the meeting was marred by divisions between the participant parties, the lack of a unified vision, and conflicts between their diverse tribal affiliations and political outlooks with regard to the current polarised situation in Libya. More importantly, the participants to not represent the truly influential parties in Libya, or even the major tribes that warned in strongly worded statements only a day before the Cairo meetings were to convene that they would punish persons who claim to represent them. It therefore appears that the Egyptian vision regarding the role of the Libyan tribes in the current crisis is considerably short sighted. The reason for this is because those responsible for formulating Egyptian policy on this matter lack an accurate perception of the Libyan crisis and this shortcoming has eventually led Egypt into become a major party in this crisis. So think the major influential tribes, which have stressed that they would not take part in any meetings outside the country to bring the Libyan tribes together. The Egyptian-sponsored meeting of the Libyan tribes in Cairo this week was arranged by Hassouna Tatanaki, one of the most powerful Libyan businessmen in eastern Libya. Highly influential among the tribes in Cyrenaica, Tatanaki enjoys good relations with officials in Cairo and Abu Dhabi. It was he who transported the youth from various tribes who were in the greatest attendance in the Cairo meetings, in addition to other individuals who are affiliated with the former Gaddafi regime. As for the boycotting tribes, these included much to the surprise of some observers the five major tribes in Cyrenaica: Al-Obeidat, Al-Hassa, Al-Baraesa, Al-Dersa and Al-Magharba. In the west, among the major tribes that also refused to attend the meetings abroad were the Warfala, Tarhouna, Maqarha, Qadhadhfa, Zintan, Mujabra, Awlad Suleiman, the tribes of Sirte, the Amazigh and the Tuareg tribes, the Awlad Youssef, as well as the tribes from Misrata, Tripoli, Gharian and Zawiya. In addition, many fail to appreciate the extent of change in Libyan social structures in recent years. The tribe, although still a fundamental pillar of Libyan social organisation, has lost a considerable degree of the dominant authority it once held over its members. Evidence of this is to found in a closer inspection of the makeup of the major tribes that currently are among the most influential in political equations. These actually consist of a group of tribal alliances rather than a single kinship lineage, such as is the case with the Warfala tribes, by far the largest tribal grouping in Libya. The urgency of a real and effective solution to the Libyan crisis compels all stakeholders at home and abroad to develop a precise and detailed portrait of the situation, which entails, firstly, an examination of the parties to the crisis, their position and their actual weight on the ground, and secondly, the realisation that an effective solution is contingent on reordering social and political situations in a peaceful manner. Towards this end it is important to disengage situations from their regional linkages so as to enable Libyans to determine the system of government that suits them as well as the type of state, which is effectively missing at present in Libya in spite of all political facades, which are without use and have been the major cause for spiralling polarisation and violence in the country. It appears that Egypt, whose regional vision on the Libyan question may soon be on a collision course with that of its regional allies, is attempting to capitalise on the tribal card, in light of demographic links across the Western Desert, in order to bolster support for its idea of building the Libyan army as the fulcrum of a new political order in Libya. It believes that securing the support of Libyan tribes for this idea will give it greater influence in Libya. However, current realities in the country clash with this idea, which ignores the fact that military men in Libya are as divided as the rest of the country, as well as the fact that the military men fighting for the Libya Dawn operation outnumber those on the side of General Khalifa Haftar who is supported by Egypt. Egypt is also trying to persuade Algeria, Libya's western neighbour, which is also harmed by fallout from the deterioration in Libya, to change its opinion on the crisis and the Libyan factions. Perhaps the recent visit to Algiers by Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Fahmi earlier this week included another attempt to bridge views with Algeria on the Libyan crisis. However, Algeria is still committed to a peaceful solution formulated in way that will save the face of Libyan factions. Also, Algiers is hosting the dialogue between Libyan political parties and activists, which is also one of the tracks sponsored by UNSMIL. Libyan social components have multiplied and changed numerous times since the fall of the Gaddafi regime. Some changes apply across the board, while others are more localised. There are now Shura Councils and Councils of Wise Men, which are regarded by supporters of the House of Representatives in Tobruk, and of General Haftar, as socio-political wings of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood. There was also another Council of Wise Men in Libya, although it lost its efficacy soon after it was created in 2012 due to disputes between its members. Most of these went on to create the Council of Libyan Notables for Reconciliation, which is the only social entity in the country that has remained coherent in the face of political and security storms. It is also the only organised entity to enjoy a relatively high degree of general approval in Libya, especially as it enjoins its members not to mix politics with social concerns. Additionally, it is the only entity that has an influential presence on the ground, especially in the west and south where it has succeeded in settling many crises between social contingents. In addition to the foregoing entities, there are tribal entities known as the social councils, which are an extension of the people's social committees system introduced by the Gaddafi regime in the 1990s. On another track in the Libyan dialogue, UNSMIL has sent out official invitations to representatives of elected local and municipal councils to resume their dialogue, which will meet for the third time in Tunisia on 28 May. UN Envoy to Libya Bernardino Leon who had met with the Libyan factions in Skhirat, Morocco, to discuss their reactions to a draft solution to the Libyan crisis will present details of those discussions to participants in the meeting in Tunisia.
