Thanks to the slow but steady military gains they have made over the past few weeks, Syrian opposition fighters in the town of Deraa are now within reach of Nasib, the country's only border crossing with Jordan that remains in the regime's hands. Any further advance on their part could leave the Syrian regime in control of only the borders with Lebanon, having already lost control of the borders with Turkey and Iraq. This new development may be just as crucial, if not more so, to the future of the country as the current fight against the Islamic State (IS) in the north. Over the past few months, opposition fighters have gained control of the entire length of the Syrian-Israeli border and most of the Syrian-Jordanian border. Only the Nasib crossing is still in the hands of the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, but perhaps not for long. What prevents the opposition from taking this last crossing is not military obstacles alone, but a complex mesh of regional and international considerations. The opposition battalions that are now in control of the southern part of Syria belong to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), and all are believed to be disciplined groups with no affiliation with Islamist outfits or agendas. The fighters raise the FSA flag, and any gains they make are claimed in the name of the FSA, with the names of the specific battalions taking part normally being withheld. In its public statements, the FSA also reiterates the principles for which the Syrian revolution started three-and-a-half years ago. The last border crossing with Jordan will not be easy to take as it is guarded by massive army contingents. But the regime forces are now surrounded, and the FSA is in control of the road linking this area to Damascus. Yet various matters have to be sorted out ahead of any further advance towards the Nasib crossing. The regime will be particularly desperate to keep control of the crossing, as it is its main source of supply for cars and spare parts that European and American sanctions have been denying it otherwise. The crossing also brings millions of dollars in revenue to Damascus every year, and its loss would be a devastating blow for the regime. Jordan does not like the idea of the crossing being controlled by the Syrian opposition, as it fears this could lead to an influx of hardened extremists onto its soil. The Gulf countries, the source of indefatigable help to the opposition, also do not want to see the flow of land traffic to the Mediterranean interrupted as many of their own imports pass along this route. The Americans, now focused on the IS situation in the north, have been keeping quiet about events in the south. But some observers believe that a decision has been made to turn southern Syria into a buffer zone, instead of the northern part of the country as has been suggested in the past. As a result, if the armed opposition groups are encouraged at any point in the future to march on Damascus, they will be moving from the south, not from the north as was formerly expected. It is easy to arm and train south-based opposition fighters as they are closer to Jordan, observers have noted. Ayham Barakat, commander of the FSA Yarmuk Army, denied that the opposition had been ordered to leave the Nasib crossing for the moment. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly, Barakat said that the FSA battalions “were preparing for the final battle”. He denied that Jordan had interfered in FSA affairs. “We are going to be in control of the Syrian border area soon and will end any presence of the regular army,” Barakat said. Although no military plan is yet in evidence for southern Syria, the FSA has made significant advances over the past few months. It is now in control of the entire border with Israel and 90 per cent of the border with Jordan. Opposition fighters are within 40 km of Damascus, and they are operating in a friendly environment with the full support of the population. They are better armed and have taken control of the administration, relief and security of various towns and villages in the south. However, they are still limited by the presence of the Syrian air force, which is likely to bomb them if they start advancing towards Damascus. If a no-fly zone was established in the south, anti-regime commanders say, the rest would be easy for them. For the time being there is a de facto no-fly zone on the Israeli border, as Syrian planes avoid this area since one of them was shot down by the Israelis last month. For now, the opposition fighters in the south are biding their time. Over the past few months, the FSA has proved itself capable of action in the south and its reports on gains and losses have been accurate. Abu Ayyad, an officer in the Usud Al-Sunnah, or Sunni Lions, an FSA brigade stationed in the village of Om Al-Mayadin, is confident of the opposition's strength. In an interview with the Weekly, Abu Ayyad, who uses his nom de guerre, said that the FSA had 30,000 trained fighters working in 30 battalions and companies. “They are reasonably armed and have no shortage of ammunition, medicine or food,” he said. The FSA faces major army positions along the road to Damascus, but its commanders do not see this as an obstacle. “On the road leading between Deraa and Damascus there are four army battalions equipped with heavy weapons, artillery and missiles,” Abu Ayyad said. “But we are confident that the larger portion of the army will defect if a no-fly zone is imposed and if the revolutionary battalions begin marching towards them,” he added. According to Abu Ayyad, about 90 per cent of army recruits are Sunnis who have no vested interest in defending the Alawite Al-Assad regime. Western reports also say that the US has started training thousands of Syrian army deserters in Jordan who may be sent to confront the regime at a later date. The training, involving US-UK-German-Turkish coordination, is said to have started one year before the Americans admitted the programme was in motion. Syrian opposition commanders are said to be meeting regularly with Western military and intelligence officials in Jordan. The opposition forces in the south now have radar, tanks, armoured personnel carriers and artillery, some of which were seized from the regime's positions. The regime, having suffered repeated losses over the past few months, is no longer tempted to engage the opposition in battle, but it may still use its air force against them, perhaps even dropping the much-feared barrel bombs against the civilian population in some areas. The matter of when and if the opposition takes over the Nasib crossing is of paramount significance to Syria's future. If the armed opposition is allowed to grab Nasib, this will mean that the endgame has started in Syria, that more anti-regime fighters will be sent into the country, and that a de facto no-fly zone will be imposed, perhaps by fighters wielding accurate anti-aircraft weapons. But if the crossing stays in the regime's hands, then the Americans will be seen to be still wavering. If this is the case, the bloody prospect of a devastating bombardment by the regime cannot be ruled out.
