Ain Al-Arab, which means the eye of the Arabs in English, and Kobani for the Kurds, has been under dual siege from 16 September 2014. The Islamic State (IS) terrorist organisation set its sights on invading this small Syrian-Kurdish town, along the Syrian-Turkish border, and, so far, controls almost 50 per cent of the town. It has laid siege from the east, the west and south in Syrian territory. To the north, the Turkish army has done its part by stopping reinforcements and the delivery of weapons and ammunition to the Kurdish defenders of Ain Al-Arab. The Kurds, who have been resisting the onslaught of IS for more than a month, have difficulties recruiting new volunteers as well as receiving modern weaponry to confront the heavy armaments at the disposal of IS. An international coalition that has been formed to “degrade and destroy” this organisation. Turkey, as a NATO member, is a partner and has been bombarding the positions and the supply routes of IS around the town and some of their positions inside. The aerial bombardment, intensified starting from last week, has slowed the advance of IS forces. However, the chief of the US Central Command, the American military wing responsible for military operations in the Middle East, General Lloyd Austin, has not ruled out the fall of the town. If this happens it will give this organisation a tremendous advantage in terms of enhanced propaganda concerning its “invincibility” on the battlefield, and would give it with control over a long stretch of land along the Syrian-Turkish borders. It would also position its forces to launch an offensive against the city of Allepo in Syria. Allepo is the second most important city in Syria, and its commercial and industrial capital. While attacking Ain Al-Arab, IS has been launching simultaneous attacks in Al-Anbar province in Iraq, not far away from Baghdad, the capital. The air strikes by the coalition air force have helped Iraqi forces halt the advance of IS's militiamen in the western part of the country, otherwise the Iraqi capital would have been an easy target. This situation on the battlefield, which extends from the Syrian town of Ain Al-Arab in the west to Ramadi, the capital of Al-Anbar province, to the east, provided the strategic context for the meeting that took place 14 October 2014 in Washington. The meeting brought together 21 chiefs of defence from the international coalition. Egypt was represented by Army Chief of Staff General Mahmoud Hegazi. US President Barack Obama addressed the meeting at Joint Base Andrews on 14 October and pointed out that the discussions that had taken place among defence chiefs concluded that the battle against IS would be a long-term campaign and that it is still at its early stages. He cautioned that there would be days of progress, but also periods of setbacks. The US president emphasised that coalition partners are united in “our goal” to degrade and destroy IS, so that it ceases to pose a threat to Iraq, the region, and the international community. On the other hand, President Obama stressed that the battle would not only be military in nature, but would also entail fighting what he termed an “ideological strain of extremism that has taken root in many parts of the region.” The US president laid out in the meeting a blueprint for the future, insisting on certain elements in the evolving strategy of the coalition. The first deals with the adoption of an approach that includes all the dimensions of power at the disposal of coalition partners. The second has to do with the new Iraqi government of Haidar Abadi, who is responsible for translating his commitment to political inclusion of all political forces within Iraq into real progress. It should not come as a surprise that, immediately after these remarks by President Obama, the Iraqi parliament approved the nomination of the defence minister, a Sunni, and the interior minister, a Shia. The two posts had been vacant throughout the second term of former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, from 2011 to 2014. He occupied the two posts in the interim. The third element that President Obama stressed relates to the political situation in Syria. In this respect, he said that the coalition is required to develop and strengthen what he called a “moderate Syrian opposition” that will be in a position to bring about legitimate and sound governance for all people inside Syria. Lastly, he talked about the importance of disrupting communications channels used by IS. The meeting of the chiefs of defence was preceded by a tour of the region by General John Allen, the special presidential envoy for the international coalition to defeat IS. Upon his return to Washington DC, Allen spoke about the results of this tour, in which he visited Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and Turkey, in a joint press conference with Jen Psaki, the State Department's spokesperson, on 15 October. General Allen spoke of five lines of support provided by coalition members. He named them as supporting military operations and training, stopping foreign fighters from joining IS, cutting the organisation's access to financing, humanitarian relief and de-legitimising IS and degrading its messaging. He said that a number of partners, without naming them, have expressed their desire to advise, assist and build partner capacity, and work in security sector reform. In this context, the US general pointed out that he discussed in Baghdad transformation of the Iraqi Security Forces as well as formation of the Iraqi National Guard, which will seek to bring volunteers and tribal fighters into a formal structure at the provincial and the national levels. General Allen said that in his discussions with Egyptian and Turkish officials, the main theme was how to disrupt the appeal of the ideological message of IS. He also discussed the same topic with the secretary-general of the Arab League in Cairo. The discussions in this respect focused on how to support and strengthen moderate voices across the region. As far as the Turkish role within the coalition is concerned, General Allen said that the Turkish government supports the training and equipping of the so-called moderate Syrian opposition, and referred to a visit by a delegation of the US Defence Department to Turkey on 15 October to discuss this question. The delegation also included representatives of US Central Command and the European Command. As far as the fate of Ain Al-Arab is concerned, its destiny lies in the hands of its Syrian-Kurdish inhabitants who have shown, men and women, courage and determination to defend the town to the very end. But the Turkish government won't mind its fall as long as the Kurdish cause, whether in Syria or in Turkey, does not gain in strength. Furthermore, Erdogan's Turkey will welcome the fall of the town to IS in the context of its strategy to bring down the Syrian government. But here lies the quandary for both the Turkish government and the international coalition: how to reconcile the contradictions and the double game of Turkey in the complicated regional web of alliances and counter-alliances, both within and outside the international coalition to degrade and defeat IS. Military victory over IS will be costly in terms of the stability, independence, territorial integrity and security of the Arab members in the US-led coalition. The writer is former assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister.
