Thirteen years after Al-Qaeda carried out the 9/11 attacks, regional and international attention is again directed at the threat of radical militant Islamism. This time, Islamic State (IS) is the focus. As Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, reports coming from the US capital indicated that a deal is in the making between the White House and Congress over military action against IS. US President Barack Obama's plan, set for announcement Wednesday afternoon EST, is expected, according to Arab diplomats in Cairo and Washington, to include clear cooperation with top Arab capitals, particularly those of the Arab Gulf, to combat the Islamist group. In parallel, US Secretary of State John Kerry is expected to arrive in the region for talks. IS, according to some intelligence assessments, is much smaller but much more advanced in its techniques, and enjoys wider support, than Al-Qaeda, the west's main bogeyman since 2001. In preparation for his trip, and on the eve of the Arab foreign ministers meeting at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League, Kerry spoke to the chief of the pan-Arab organisation, Nabil Al-Arabi. The talks, according to informed sources on both sides, focused on combating IS and anticipated US plans (which could later be sponsored by NATO or the UN) to militarily intervene. The plan is already finding support in direct high-level talks in the most influential Arab capitals, especially Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Egypt, too, despite its uneasy relations with the US, is onboard with the US scheme. Ahead of the Arab League ministerial meeting, top Saudi, UAE and Egyptian military officials have, in direct contact with their US counterparts, examined the options of the upcoming military operation. A parallel political operation is under way in the same concerned capitals, with considerable assistance from Moscow and Tehran. This political operation includes the adoption of an Arab League resolution on Sunday, the second day of the Arab foreign ministers meeting, to give the green light to launch an offensive against IS under the umbrella of the pan-Arab organisation. It also includes Arab contact with the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, whose participation in the Arab League has been suspended for two years in the wake of gross atrocities it committed against popular demonstrations calling for democracy in Syria, back in the early days of the Arab Spring. Said a veteran Arab diplomat, “Let's face it, at the beginning those were real civilians demonstrating and calling for democracy — there is no denying to this. But over the months, it turned into a war between the Syrian army and radical militants that are not there to establish democracy in Syria, but to establish an Islamic state that they want to link to parts of Iraq that have already fallen under the control of IS.” He added: “The Saudis, who have generously supported the arming of the Syrian opposition and worked towards facilitating the movement of militants to Syria, are alright with contacts with the Syrian regime.” On the fringe of the Arab League meeting, according to one Arab League source, the issue of “finding an exit to the complexity of Syria” was explored. “There are ideas, let us say, on how to announce that the Assad regime is being approached, and these ideas include what could be roughly qualified as a political package,” the source said. Arab officials are to discuss these ideas further with Secretary of State Kerry when he arrives in the region, and in New York next week, when they meet for the UN General Assembly. “We are currently exploring. Nothing is decided. One thing is clear: if we have to choose between Assad and IS, it will not be IS — nor for that matter, Al-Nusra Front.” Arab officials are expected to soon decide how far each member state will go in the fight against radical Islamic groups — not just IS, but also the militant groups operating in Libya, which were the subject of an Arab League resolution that warned against continued fighting and its impact on the stability and territorial integrity of the oil-rich North African state. In a follow-up to their talks in Cairo earlier this week, Arab officials are to convene Thursday for a special meeting in Jeddah, including Kerry, to discuss the war on terror. Turkey will also be represented. “Obviously, the Saudis are the ones who are worried most with IS having a field day on the borders in Iraq,” said the Arab diplomat. He added that ahead of the Jeddah meeting, Arab intelligence officials are coordinating information to decide the nature of the involvement required to quell IS first and other, similar, groups later. “It is rather tricky, however, because there are some regional capitals that find it purposeful to support the operation of these radical militant groups,” the Arab diplomat added. The top “suspect” in this respect is Doha, which is said by several Arab officials to be expanding its support, “both financial and in intelligence,” to IS, “essentially with the purpose of challenging Saudi Arabia,” according to the same diplomat. He added that Saudi intelligence presented Qatari officials “repeatedly” with evidence of the intervention of Doha in Yemen, the immediate backyard of Saudi Arabia, where “no one is allowed to intervene without Saudi consent.” He continued, “There is this dissent within the Gulf Cooperation Council [which brings together the six Arab Gulf countries] against Saudi hegemony there, and if Qatar is taking the lead role in this dissent it is not necessarily all alone.” The political pressure and diplomatic threats that have been directed at Qatar over the past few weeks, essentially by Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain, have prompted some amendments in the choices of the small but wealthy state, though it is not clear to concerned quarters whether this change of tack will be sustained. “The decision is taken. There will be military operations against IS and all the other radical militant groups across the region. The question now is how, when, and in what sequence,” the Arab diplomat asserted.
