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Crumbling alliances
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 08 - 2014

Amr Moussa conceded Monday that after two months his efforts to forge an electoral coalition of secular forces to fight parliamentary elections have ended in deadlock.
Moussa's spokesman, Ahmed Kamel, said the former foreign minister and head of the committee that drew up Egypt's new constitution had decided to withdraw from the Alliance of the Egyptian Nation, the umbrella grouping of leftist and liberal forces he had hoped would win a majority in the new House of Representatives.
“A number of difficulties, sensitivities, narrow-minded manoeuvres and attempts to exclude other factions have hampered a final agreement on the creation of the Alliance of the Egyptian Nation,” Moussa said in a statement.
Moussa has told political parties and factions he is no longer interested in continuing efforts to form a bloc to contest the parliamentary poll, Kamel said.
The collapse of Moussa's alliance, argues Wahid Abdel-Meguid, the editor of Al-Ahram's International Politics magazine, reveals irreconcilable differences between the parties that came into existence following the 25 January Revolution and older political parties that for decades provided democratic cover for the Mubarak regime.
“These political parties may pay lip service to the same liberal and leftist ideologies but they differ fundamentally on how these ideologies can be implemented. Old guard parties like Al-Wafd and the Tagammu strongly support Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi and believe that excessive democratization and liberalization could destabilise the country. New parties like Al-Dostour believe Al-Sisi represents a setback to Mubarak-style military rule and want a western-inspired agenda of liberal reforms to be introduced quickly.”
Informed sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that demands made by the Wafd Party in return for its membership had dealt a final blow to the alliance. The Wafd had insisted the alliance be renamed after the party and demanded its candidates top the alliance's electoral lists.
The Free Egyptian Party, founded by business tycoon Naguib Sawiris, refused to join Moussa's alliance from the start. Though the party has long said it will contest elections alone, a meeting between Sawiris and Wafd Party head Al-Sayed Al-Badawi has been scheduled for this week, leading to speculation the two parties could join forces.
In his Monday statement Moussa raised the prospect of forming a “neutral committee”, comprising representatives of a broad range of political forces and factions, which would work towards forging a healthy political atmosphere in which competitive parliamentary elections could be held.
While Kamel said Moussa had decided not to run in the coming parliamentary elections, Moussa himself said he “could have second thoughts on the issue” but only if “a national alliance was formed to contest parliamentary elections as a single political bloc committed to forming a civil government and implementing the new constitution's articles on freedoms and rights”.
Since January's ratification of the constitution, says Kamel, Moussa has worked tirelessly to form an alliance capable of winning a parliamentary majority. “He has acted in the belief that secular forces must coordinate ahead of the poll in order to face down those who do not believe in Egypt having a civilian government or political system. He has been striving to ensure the implementation of Article 5 of the new constitution, which states that peaceful rotation of power and a multi-party system, must be the basis of Egypt's political life.”
The collapse of Moussa's political alliance, argues Gamal Zahran, a professor of political science at Suez Canal University, “cannot be attributed solely to ideological differences between secular political parties.
“The fact is that among the post-January Revolution parties there was a great deal of skepticism over Moussa's motives. Many thought that in trying to secure a majority Moussa was seeking to ensure Al-Sisi did not face any strong opposition in parliament.”
With the failure of Moussa's political alliance, says Zahran, competition in the parliamentary elections will be confined to four groups: “One will be led the Wafd Party. A second will comprise former members of Mubarak's NDP diehards. They will compete at the polls with an amalgam of post-25 January Revolution forces, and with Islamist parties, including the ultraconservative Al-Nour.”
Misr Baladi, led by former interior minister Ahmed Gamaleddin, and the National Movement, founded by Mubarak's last prime minister and 2012 presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq, have already selected Ali Al-Moselhi, a former leading official in the NDP and one-time minister of social solidarity under Mubarak, as general coordinator of their joint campaign.
The new House of Representatives Law specifies that 75 per cent of parliamentary seats (420) will be reserved for independent candidates and 20 per cent (120) for party-based candidates. The remaining five per cent — 27 seats — will be filled by presidential appointees.


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