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Post-election challenges
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 11 - 06 - 2014

Former army chief Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi became president of Egypt after taking the oath of office before the Supreme Constitutional Court on 8 June. The swearing in was followed by a two-part inauguration ceremony. At Al-Ittihadiya Palace in east Cairo, Arab and African leaders gathered to watch outgoing president Adli Mansour hand the office of president to Al-Sisi. Among the audience were King Abdullah of Jordan, King Hamad Bin Eissa Al-Khalifa of Bahrain, Kuwait's Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Gaber Al-Sabah, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Salman Bin Abdel-Aziz, Vice President of the United Arab Emirates Mohamed Bin Zayed, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the presidents of Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea and Somalia.
Sergey Naryshkin, Speaker of the Russian Parliament, was caught by television cameras handing Al-Sisi a written message from Russian President Vladimir Putin. A day after the ceremony Putin issued a statement saying he had renewed an invitation to Al-Sisi to visit Moscow. Putin was the first world leader to call Al-Sisi to congratulate him for his “convincing victory” in last month's presidential elections.
Al-Sisi and Putin met in Moscow in February, forging what local political analysts have called the beginning of a new strategic partnership.
American and Western reactions to Al-Sisi's election have been noticeably cool. US President Barack Obama has yet to extend any congratulations to Al-Sisi on his election. The contrast with 2012, when Obama was keen to be the first to congratulate Mohamed Morsi on his election, is marked.
Al-Ahram political analyst Hassan Abu Taleb believes the inaugural ceremonies succeeded in fulfilling their aims: “Al-Ittihadiya and Al-Kobba ceremonies had three objectives: to allow the new president a chance to forge necessary personal relations with an array of world leaders, to secure international recognition for the new political order in Egypt and to impress the local audience that in Al-Sisi they have finally got a statesman who is working for the entire nation rather than for a certain group or a political party as his predecessors Morsi and Mubarak did.”
On 8 June Al-Sisi delivered an hour-long speech in Al-Kobba Palace. The ceremony adopted an American-style, similar to the inaugural speeches US presidents traditionally give in the White House gardens to mark the beginning of a new presidential term.
Al-Sisi did not once mention the United States by name, reflecting already strained relations between the two countries.
Al-Sisi, says Abu Taleb, used his inaugural speech to issue an indirect rebuke to the Obama administration. “Al-Sisi was addressing the US when he stressed that the age of dependency is over and that from now on Egypt will widen the scope of its international relations and deal with everyone on an equal footing.”
Al-Sisi has a golden opportunity to rid Egypt of its long-term military and economic “dependency” on America, says Abu Taleb, “but he must be sincere about his intentions to dismantle this strategic dependency because if he did not he could, like former president Anwar Al-Sadat and Hosni Mubarak, end up placing his regime at the mercy of the Americans.”
On Monday Al-Sisi asked Prime Minister Ibrahim Mehleb to stay on and head a caretaker government until parliamentary elections are held at the end of this year. On the same day he met with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Tedros Adhanom to discuss the Grand Renaissance Dam. In his inauguration speech Al-Sisi stressed that just as Egypt understands Ethiopia's quest for development Ethiopia should understand Egypt's need to keep its historic quota of Nile water.
Adhanom extended an invitation to Al-Sisi to visit Ethiopia. There have also been reports that Equatorial Guinea, which will host the African Union summit on 25 June, is keen to arrange a meeting between Al-Sisi and the prime minister of Ethiopia in a bid to settle the Renaissance Dam dispute. The African Union, which suspended Egypt following the removal of Mohamed Morsi, is expected to vote to end the suspension at the summit.
The domestic agenda awaiting Al-Sisi looks fractious. Two new laws aimed at regulating the upcoming parliamentary elections, endorsed by outgoing president Adli Mansour 48 hours before he left office, are expected to cause his successor a headache. Political groups already charge that the law regulating the election of the House of Representatives discriminates against political parties that came into being in the wake of the 2011 Revolution.
Abdel-Ghaffar Shukr, a leading member of the Popular Alliance Party, argues that by allocating 75 per cent of seats to independent candidates and just 20 per cent to party-lists the new law will help remnants of Mubarak's defunct ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) and the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood to enter parliament.
In his inauguration speech Al-Sisi said he would never allow the creation of a “parallel force” or extend the hand of reconciliation to those “who have committed crimes against the nation or resorted to violence.”
“To those who shed blood and killed innocent Egyptians I say you do not have a place in this country's new march,” said Al-Sisi. The reference, says Abu Taleb, was to the Muslim Brotherhood.
“The words ‘parallel force' referred to how, when Morsi was in office, the Brotherhood tried to build a network of armed militias and Brotherhoodised institutions loyal to the group and above the state.”
Fears are growing in some political circles that figures close to Al-Sisi are seeking to forge an alliance that will render parliament toothless and usher in a return to the rubber stamping days of the Mubarak-era NDP. Former foreign minister Amr Moussa, former interior minister Ahmed Gamaleddin, and former intelligence chief Murad Mowafi are said to be the driving force behind the National Alliance, a group that will field candidates in parliamentary elections in the hope of forming a parliamentary bloc in support of the new president. Article 140 of the new constitution bans the president from joining any political party while in office.
On Monday Moussa argued for coordination between political forces ahead of parliamentary elections. “A consensus must be reached over lists of parliamentary candidates, respect for the new constitution and implementation of its articles on such important issues as human rights and freedoms, social justice and fighting corruption,” he said.
The proposed alliance, he continued, is not intended as a “back-up” for Al-Sisi in the coming parliament. “It will be a back-up for Egypt, helping the newly-elected president to move forward and implement the reforms required by the new constitution. It will also ensure civil forces are fairly represented in the new parliament.”
Moussa's initiative has already been approved by old guard forces like Al-Wafd, and by some post-January 2011 groupings.
Moussa chaired the 50-member committee which drafted the new constitution. “And now,” says Abu Taleb, “we are about to see Moussa playing another major role in shaping the make-up of the coming parliament. He might end up becoming speaker of the new parliament, or even the country's post-election prime minister.”


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