A headline in Al-Nahar newspaper recently announced: “Al-Assad's Election Signals Change.” Once sympathetic to the Syrian Revolution, this Beirut-based paper now acknowledges that Syria's history is taking an unexpected path. A relatively high turnout in the Syrian expatriate vote in Beirut is changing minds about the ongoing turbulence next door. It used to be that Syrian expatriates were considered mostly opponents of President Bashar Al-Assad. Now, there is at least some evidence to the contrary, and the Lebanese are reassessing their position accordingly. Since it offered refuge to hundreds of thousands of Syrians fleeing the horrors of war, Lebanon has found itself taking sides in a crisis that is not its own. The Future Movement, and its friends in the 14 March Alliance, used to be unanimously sympathetic with the Syrian exodus, on the assumption that most of the refugees were anti-government. Either that, or they are from the Sunni community, which is viewed favourably by detractors of Al-Assad and his Hizbullah supporters. As emotions ran high, the streams of sympathy ran down the usual sectarian channels. And the advent into Lebanon of so many Syrian Sunnis gave pause to the Christians — especially those allied with Hizbullah and other Shia groups. The Free Patriotic Movement of Michel Aoun made no secret of its opposition to the Syrian exodus. Lebanese Foreign Minister Jubran Basil, who is a relative and ally of Aoun, lashed out at the Syrian refugee presence, portraying it as a threat to the country. Hizbullah and the Amal Movement mostly kept quiet, but they remained vigilant lest the Sunnis offer succour to terrorist groups that made a business of targeting Shia neighbourhoods. On 28 May, as thousands of Syrians streamed into Beirut with pictures of Bashar Al-Assad held aloft to mark the first day of expatriate elections, the Lebanese were forced to reconsider their assumptions. As crowds chanted words of support for the man who is regarded by many as the instigator of Syria's civil war, the mainstream Christian community in Lebanon was shocked. Those who welcomed the refugees were shocked to discover that a percentage of them were not victims, but supporters, of the Syrian regime. This revelation caused some members of the 14 March Alliance to call for the expulsion of any Syrian who voted in these elections. If they like the incumbent president in their war-torn country that much, let them go home, went the argument. Accurate statistics are not available yet, but Lebanese Interior Minister Nehad Al-Mashnuq estimated the turnout in the expatriate elections in Beirut to be in the vicinity of six per cent. Officials in 14 March Alliance were quick to claim that the pro-Assad demonstration was organised by Hizbullah and the Syrian Nationalist Party. Al-Mashnuq then issued a controversial decision, saying that any Syrian who leaves Lebanon to go back home would be stripped of refugee status. He claimed that the decision had nothing to do with elections and has the approval of ministers from the 8 March Alliance. Meanwhile, there has been a change of heart — in the exact opposite direction — within the Hizbullah-led 8 March Alliance. Instead of viewing Syrian refugees with suspicion, as they did in the past, members of this alliance are showing humanitarian interest in their lot. The head of the Arab Baath Party's parliamentary bloc has described Al-Mashnuq's decision as “racist”. Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdel-Karim told Al-Ahram Weekly that the number of Syrians who voted in Lebanon ranges between 100,000 and 200,000. This means that the turnout is between 10 and 20 per cent, if we accept UNHCR's estimate of one million Syrian refugees currently living in Lebanon. Regardless of whether Hizbullah or other friends of the Syrian regime helped choreograph the pro-Assad demonstrations in Beirut, it is becoming clear that a substantial segment of Syrian refugees are not opponents of the Damascus regime, as the Future Movement and its friends in the 14 March Alliance initially assumed. As the war drags on, Baath loyalists and Syrian minorities may decide to throw their lot in with the regime. Horrified by divisions, corruption and fanaticism among armed opposition groups, such as Al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), some Syrians may be experiencing a change of heart. It has to be mentioned here that the regime has shifted tactics of late in a manner that may work in its favour. Ditching its ill-advised “scorched earth” policy against certain opposition-held towns, Al-Assad's regime has negotiated peace deals allowing inhabitants to resume a semblance of normalcy. As the regime consolidated its power in at least some parts of the country, with Hizbullah's help, it claims to be speaking on behalf of the whole nation. Far-fetched as this may be, the claims may find resonance with at least some Syrians. Are all, or most, those who voted for Al-Assad members of his Alawite minority? This is the question that is beginning to haunt not only Syrian but also Lebanese politicians.
