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Not a foregone conclusion
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 29 - 05 - 2014

Yesterday saw a third — surprise — day of voting in Egypt's presidential election. Late on Tuesday the Presidential Election Commission spokesman Abdel-Aziz Salman said polling stations would remain open for an extra day to allow voters working away from home to return to their governorates and cast their ballots.
“The extension was made after pressure from different sectors of society,” said Salman. “There were complaints that for many reasons citizens found it difficult to vote and as a result the ballot is continuing for a third day.”
The Sabahi and Al-Sisi campaigns responded by filing complaints with the PEC, rejecting the extension for different reasons. Sabahi, while raising fears that the decision might a politically motivated attempt to help his rival's campaign, discounted rumours it would lead him to withdraw.
Al-Sisi's campaign complained that the extension placed an unnecessary burden on citizens and state authorities.
Hafez Abu Seada, chairman of the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights (EOHR), confirmed that NGOs participating in monitoring the polls had exerted pressure to extend the vote. “We complained that judges were very strict in implementing rules, preventing as many as six million voters from casting their ballots because of residence restrictions,” said Abu Seada.
Initial reports by monitors and media outlets, confirmed by some officials, suggest the turnout will be just over the 20 million of January's constitutional referendum, whereas Abu Seada predicts a figure more in line with the first round of the 2012 presidential polls when 23.5 million voters went to the polls. “I expect that it will be the same or perhaps a little higher, that is between 45 and 47 per cent,” he said.
Salman, who visited several polling stations on Tuesday morning, said supervising judges told him by mid-noon voter turnout had reached 37 per cent. In an interview with CBC television after polling stations on Tuesday Salman had revised the figure to 44 per cent, citing reduced evening temperatures as one factor behind the late surge.
Al-Sisi campaign officials say they are confident of a landslide victory but that the turnout was not as high as they had hoped.
Wahid Abdel-Meguid, the political analyst in charge of Sabahi's political platform, believes the turnout was not as low as Muslim Brotherhood activists claim, or as high as Al-Sisi and Sabahi's campaigns had hoped. “This is a realistic assessment. Voting patterns resembled those of the constitutional referendum. There was enthusiasm for voting on the first day and a modest turnout on the second,” Abdel-Meguid told Al-Ahram Weekly.
“Any turnout less than 50 per will be disheartening. We wanted more to ensure the coming president's legitimacy would be placed on strong foundations.”
Abdel-Meguid dismissed Muslim Brotherhood claims its repeated calls for a boycott had resulted in a low turnout. “Other factors — the hot temperatures and the PEC's refusal to allow workers away from home to vote are to blame,” he said.
One source told a foreign news agency that on the first day 16 million of Egypt's 54 million eligible voters had cast a ballot. “Our follow-up showed that the turnout was high in the early morning and sundown hours, but low to average during the day,” said the source.
“The number of auxiliary polling stations increased from 8,000 in 2012 to 14,000 this year. This increase was engineered by the interior ministry to allow women to vote in special polling stations and to spare citizens from standing in long queues or waiting in crowded conditions in hot temperatures,” said Deputy Interior Minister Rifaat Abul-Qomsan. “This may have given a false impression that the turnout was modest.”
Al-Ahram political analyst Mohamed Al-Said Idris agrees that a record turnout would have enhanced the legitimacy of the incoming president. “But,” Idris argues, “as long as the polls were held in a democratic way the issue of turnout should not become a thorn in the side of the coming president.”
“Even if the turnout is slightly lower than the 2012 presidential election's 23 million and Al-Sisi wins by a wide margin he would have a popular mandate. He would certainly have significantly more than the 13 million votes Morsi wont in the run-offs of the 2012 poll.”
Sabahi's campaign claims their candidate won the majority of votes in the first two days of voting and that the PEC extended the vote to a third day to negate this.
Idris blames both candidates' campaigns for an “average” voter turnout. “By now it is clear the two campaigns did not do enough to galvanize citizens,” he said.
Abdel-Meguid believes Al-Sisi was hamstrung by security concerns which prevented him holding public rallies, and that the perception he would win hands down dissuaded many from casting their votes.
Al-Sisi's campaign had always predicted a comfortable majority, something last week's expat vote seemed to confirm when their candidate secured 94.5 per cent of the vote.
Media and NGO reports recorded massive participation in the first three hours of voting.
“Queues were forming before 9am, when polling stations opened, but by afternoon, when temperatures had risen, voter numbers trailed off,” says Seada. “In Cairo's densely- populated Shobra the turnout was between average to high, but in West Cairo's Zamalek it was average to low.”
The decision to designate Tuesday as a holiday, and reports that a LE500 fine would be levied on citizens who abstained from voting with no reason, failed to have much impact on turnout.
Seada noted some positive developments. “Women from across the age spectrum participated in large numbers,” an observation with which Abdel-Meguid agreed.
“As in January's constitutional referendum women and old people formed the majority of voters,” said Abdel-Meguid. “This sector of society, unlike young people, is the one most desperate for security and stability and believes that voting is a necessity if the country is to be rid of chaos and turmoil.”
Voting was generally quieter than in recent elections. There were isolated clashes between security forces and Morsi supporters but they were soon dispersed.
Local and foreign monitors reported a limited number of violations.
“While the result of the election will be internationally recognised, the incoming president will face the difficult task of trying to calm and reunite a country on the edge of financial collapse, and that under Morsi was on the verge of a civil war,” says Idris.
In accordance with the constitution the government of Prime Minister Ibrahim Mehleb will resign after the results of the elections are officially announced.
Article 144 of the constitution stipulates that if there is no parliament sitting during presidential elections the new president must be sworn in before the Supreme Constitutional Court. The new president will be the seventh since the army removed King Farouk, ending the 150-year Mohamed Ali dynasty, in July 1952. Egypt was declared a republic in June 1953.


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