In a detailed communiqué issued 5 March 2014, the governments of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain announced that they had decided to recall their respective ambassadors to Doha, in protest against the failure of the Qatari government to fulfil its obligations vis-à-vis the member countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The communiqué detailed the various agreements and steps taken to protect the security of GCC member states and to respect the principle of non-intervention in the domestic affairs of member countries. The communiqué went on to say that three months after the signing of an agreement by the ruler of Qatar, the emir of Kuwait, the Custodian of the Holy Shrines, which was backed by the other rulers in the GCC, the Qatari government failed to comply with its provisions. Moreover, it has not approved the establishment of a mechanism to monitor implementation of this agreement, known as the Riyadh Accord. On 4 March, the foreign ministers of the GCC had met in the Saudi capital to reach an understanding in this respect, but after a marathon session that lasted for eight hours, according to news reports, the meeting ended with relations among the member countries frayed as never before. The communiqué is quite explicit on the reasons behind the recall of the three ambassadors. The most important one was the non-compliance of Qatar with the principle of refraining from intervening in the domestic affairs of other countries of the GCC, whether directly or indirectly, and to refrain from supporting those who aim at “threatening the security and the stability of the member countries, whether organisations or individuals through direct security activities or political activism”. Besides the abovementioned reasons, there have been five core issues that have soured relations among the four countries. The first is related to the hosting of representatives of the banned Muslim Brotherhood on Qatari soil, and giving them free hand to attack the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The second is linked to a media campaign in Qatar against both the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The third issue, and the most relevant in a more strategic context in the Middle East, is the alignment of Qatari policies with Turkey, particularly in Syria. The fourth question is the absence of a consensus on the best way to address some security challenges facing the GCC. The fifth matter concerns suspicions around possible support for the Houthis in Yemen. The Qatari government issued a statement in response to the recall of the three ambassadors in which it reiterated its commitment to solidarity among the peoples of the GCC, and pointed out that the differences with some other member countries in this council relate to regional issues rather than the internal affairs of GCC states. One is struck by the use of the word “peoples” rather than “states” or “governments.” As if the government in Doha would like to take the matter directly to the people over their governments. This description only shows the frame of mind that has governed Qatari positions and reactions to the changes taking place in the Arab world. It has been acting as if it has become the custodian of the people in Arab countries. The decision to recall the three ambassadors has shown how deep are the divisions within the GCC on how to respond to the upheavals rocking the security and stability of major Arab powers. It has also shown that the Arab world is witnessing the emergence of new alliances aimed at protecting the Arab world from intervention at the hands of foreign and regional powers that want to divide the Arab world into various spheres of influence that can coexist with each other in a new regional order where the United States will become its ultimate guarantor. Qatar, for reasons of its own, has been working for the benefit of this new order in cahoots with the Americans and the Turks. This strategy has put it in direct confrontation with both Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as well as the UAE and Bahrain. Needless to say, the communiqué concerning the recall of the three ambassadors came in the wake of a terrorist operation that hit Manama in which three officers lost their lives, one of whom was an officer from the UAE. The deep divisions within the GCC became clearer with the decision of the Saudi government, announced 6 March, to consider the Muslim Brotherhood, among other organisations, a terrorist organisation, in a historic first for the Saudis concerning the Muslim Brothers. This decision opens a completely new chapter in the history of the Brotherhood, not only in the Arab world but also throughout the Muslim world and beyond. It puts added pressure on Qatar, for it means that it is hosting “terrorists” as far as the Saudis are concerned. How the government in Doha will respond remains to be seen. I would expect that it would not welcome the arrival of new representatives of the Brotherhood, and would ask those already present to refrain from targeting other members of the GCC. Accordingly, we should not be surprised if the attacks will concentrate on Egypt, particularly after Field Marshal Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi becomes a presidential candidate. It will be a field day for members of the Brotherhood living in exile in Qatar. But this will not paper over the major dividing lines, not only within the GCC, but also in the Arab world at large. The upcoming Arab Summit in Kuwait on 25-26 March will be interesting to watch, to see how the Arab system will deal with the deep rifts tearing it apart. For starters, the Qatari delegation to the meeting of Arab foreign ministers 9 March in Cairo in order to prepare for the Arab Summit was headed by the assistant foreign minister — unfortunately a snub, and one that shows that the Qataris are not ready, yet, to introduce meaningful changes in their policies in the Arab world. US President Barack Obama is due to hold talks with the Custodian of the Holy Shrines this month in Saudi Arabia. The two decisions carry a message for the US administration, namely that the major Arab powers are opposed to the so-called moderate Muslim Brotherhood, and that they will not play by America's rules that have destabilised the Arab world in the last three years in the name of democracy and human rights. The next few months will be decisive in charting new directions, as well as new alliances in the Arab world, while internationally we pass from a bi-polar system to a multi-polar world order. Let us hope that Egypt and Saudi Arabia will work together to ensure that a new Arab order will emerge away from the American sphere of influence, and will become more reflective of the new realignment of forces taking shape in the world. Only then will we be able to bridge our differences as Arab partners in independence, freedom and progress. The writer is the former assistant to Egypt foreign minister.
