The battle lines of Egypt's upcoming presidential election, slated to occur by mid-April, have begun to take shape. Field Marshal Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi, army chief and minister of defence, is expected to finally declare his candidacy for the office of president of Egypt in a few days. Amr Moussa, chairman of the 2014 Constitution drafting committee, said after a meeting with Al-Sisi Tuesday that the latter would announce his candidacy on 1 March. This is in spite of the fact that judicial and legal sources agree that Al-Sisi must step down and insert his name on voter lists before 17 February in order to be eligible for submitting a presidential bid. Many expect that Wednesday's cabinet meeting was the last for Al-Sisi as minister of defence. Al-Sisi is slated to have one strong rival. Hamdeen Sabahi, a high-profile leftist activist who announced his candidacy on 8 February, finished third in 2012's presidential ballot, with an impressive 4.8 million votes. The Presidential Election Commission (PEC) is scheduled to meet next week — most probably on 18 February — to begin the process of preparing for Egypt's first post-2014 constitution presidential elections. According to a 26 January presidential decree, presidential polls must be held within a period of no less than 30 days and no more than 90 days from the date the new constitution — 18 January —was promulgated. Ali Awad, interim President Adli Mansour's constitutional and legal affairs advisor, indicated that a new presidential election law will be officially issued next week — or before 17 February — to be followed 18 February — or next Tuesday — by a PEC meeting to decide on the next steps regarding the election, including drawing up a timetable for the ballot. Confirming what has been obvious to most Egyptians for some time, Al-Sisi told a Kuwaiti newspaper last week that he will run for president. Although the army's spokesman denied that Al-Sisi took a final decision, the editor of the daily Kuwaiti Al-Siyasa newspaper told Egyptian reporters by phone that Al-Sisi told him that he had “no alternative” but to meet the wishes of the Egyptian people. A number of pro-Sisi campaigns under different titles, such as “Complete Your Favour,” and “Yes, for the field marshal”, claim that they have collected millions of signatures supporting his presidential bid. But some analysts say it is by no means enough to believe that Al-Sisi's much-expected candidacy for the presidency is prompted by sweeping popular support only. “I believe that Al-Sisi himself mainly draws upon support from oil-rich Arab Gulf countries, which want a military man — and especially a formidable foe of the Muslim Brotherhood at the same time — to be the next president of Egypt,” said political analyst Mustafa Al-Labbad. “Besides,” added Al-Labbad, “there are semi-confirmed reports that Al-Sisi got assurances from Gulf countries — particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — that when he comes to office they will continue donating their generous assistance until Egypt's battered economy stands upon its feet again.” Sobhi Sedki, chief of military staff and the man expected to replace Al-Sisi as minister of defence, visited the UAE a few days ago. The visit came after UAE and Saudi Arabia decided in a historic move to provide $2 billion in funding for an Egyptian purchase of sophisticated military equipment from Russia. “It is a historic step and has never happened before, even when Hosni Mubarak, long held as Egypt's most close president to Saudi Arabia and UAE, was in office,” said Al-Labbad, adding that, “this military package in my view tells a lot that Saudi Arabia and UAE want Al-Sisi to be president of Egypt, not to mention that it sends a message to the United States that they reject its aggressive moves towards Egypt since the removal of the Muslim Brotherhood regime last July.” In a recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Prime Minister Hazem Al-Beblawi assured Saudi officials that “Egypt's political roadmap goes as scheduled and that an elected president will be in office next April.” Besides, Saudi Arabia's ambassador in Cairo stressed this week that “the kingdom will firmly stand beside Egypt and will never let it down.” Until the door of registration for the presidential ballot opens, all agree that the battle will be confined to competition between two candidates: Al-Sisi and Sabahi. “Even if other figures decided to join the race, all of them will remain on the margin,” said political analyst and historian Salah Eissa. The decision of Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh, leader of the Strong Egypt Party, not to contest the upcoming presidential polls reinforced the above belief that “the battle will be primarily Al-Sisi versus Sabahi.” Abul-Fotouh, in a press conference 9 February, claimed that he “cannot join a process aimed at deceiving people.” Abul-Fotouh said he is strongly against the army participating in political life. Eissa, however, believes that Abul-Fotouh's refusal to submit a presidential bid was expected “because he knows more than anyone else that by no means he has any chance to win or even get a considerable number of votes”. “This is a man who Egyptians know strongly believes in the now widely abhorred ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood, not to mention that his party suffers from a severe kind of political bankruptcy,” said Eissa. Like Abul-Fotouh, most anticipate that Sami Anan, Egypt's former chief of staff, will not join the race — or that even if he decided to run, he would not have any chance to win. Anan told the London-based daily Sharq Al-Awsat Monday that he prefers to wait until the door of registration opens and then declare whether he will run or not. Sabahi is well known as the main organiser of the anti-government protests that led to the ouster of former Islamist president Mohamed Morsi. Sabahi is a member of the National Salvation Front (NSF) that was founded in 2012 to stand up to the Morsi regime's dictatorial practices and its “Brotherhoodisation” of Egypt. Eissa and Al-Labbad agree that while Sabahi's candidacy is a serious one, Al-Sisi remains the stronger candidate. “Sabahi enjoys overwhelming support in youth circles, especially revolutionary movements that boycotted last month's vote on the new constitution,” said Eissa, adding that “it is these forces that made him come third in 2012 with an astonishing 4.8 million votes. It is more astonishing and impressive that Sabahi got most of these votes from Cairo and Alexandria — Egypt's two most populated cities and hotbeds of its intellectual elite — at the expense of Morsi and his old guard rival Ahmed Shafik.” Sabahi's official candidacy, however, caused divisions among revolutionary youth movements. Tamarod, the Rebel Movement that masterminded the ouster of Morsi, suffered a rift. Some of Tamarod's its high-profile leaders, such as Hassan Shaheen and Mohamed Abdel-Aziz, decided to support Sabahi, while the movement's founder, Mahmoud Badr, said he is in full support of Al-Sisi. Sabahi's decision caused divisions even among Nasserists themselves. The so-called Popular Current and Karama (Dignity) political parties, founded by Sabahi, announced they will team up to support him, “because he is the main strident voice against the corruption of the Mubarak regime and the terrorism of the Muslim Brotherhood regime.” By contrast, the Arab Nasserist Party said Tuesday that it would stand behind Al-Sisi. Chairman of the party Mohamed Abul-Ela said: “We believe that Egypt is in desperate need for a leader like Al-Sisi, not to mention that Sabahi should not be considered as publicly mandated to monopolise the voice of Nasserists.” Joining forces, Abdel-Hakim, the younger son of late President Gamal Abdel-Nasser, agreed that, “While Al-Sisi is the man of the moment in Egypt, the role of Sabahi, a close of friend of mine, could come at a later stage.” Liberal forces, especially Al-Wafd Party, are sure to reject Sabahi's candidacy. The chairman of Al-Wafd, Sayed Al-Badawi, said there is a semi-consensus among the party's officials that they are in favour of Al-Sisi as president. Deputy chairman of Al-Wafd, Hossam Al-Khouli, told Al-Ahram Weekly that: “Al-Wafd can never support a socialist or leftist with Nasserist leanings like Sabahi.” Eissa expects that Western circles and media will view the “Al-Sisi versus Sabahi” battle in Egypt in a negative way. “Just like they did their best to tarnish the new constitution, they will do the same with Al-Sisi and Sabahi.” “To these circles, Al-Sisi is a military man who led a coup against a democratically elected president, while Sabahi is just a Nasserist with radical and old-fashioned Arab nationalist and anti-Western views,” said Eissa, arguing that “But again, we should not give too much concern to these circles as long as the battle will be competitive and the two main rival candidates currently reflect real secular forces that reject the Mubarak regime's mixing business with politics and the Morsi regime's mixing religion with politics.” (see p. 2-4)
