In Focus: Bazaar diplomacy When will the Arabs understand that the United States and Israel are not in the business of proposing equitable solutions to the Arab-Israeli conflict, asks Galal Nassar The Arab Initiative Follow-Up Committee met in Cairo on18 April to discuss the revival of the 2002 peace initiative. The committee, formed by the Riyadh Arab summit, intends to form sub- committees to rally international and media support. It has asked Egypt and Jordan to get in touch with Israel to find out more about its response to the initiative. One day later, on 19 April, King Abdullah of Jordan hosted Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik and a group of Israel's extreme right wing officials to discuss the initiative. During the encounter, Abdullah said that the Arab peace plan meant that Israel would be fully recognised and integrated in the region. Later on, it transpired that Abdullah intends to visit Israel in May to address the Knesset -- a repeat of the gesture made 30 years ago by President Anwar El-Sadat. Meanwhile, Israel doesn't seem in a hurry to accept such an initiative. The view there is that dialogue with the Arabs should start without any preconditions regarding withdrawing to the 1967 borders, the creation of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, or the right of return of Palestinian refugees. The Israelis believe that the Arabs should make more concessions. Among the "confidence-building" measures they suggest is the involvement of Arab countries that haven't recognised Israel in preliminary talks. In other words, Israel wants some normalisation to happen without a quid pro quo. Writing in Maariv, one Israeli analyst suggested a counter initiative involving recognition of Israel, self-determination, and a multilateral agreement -- or separate bilateral agreements -- with Arab countries. No refugees would be allowed to come back to Israel. Israel would withdraw from territories (but not necessarily all the territories) occupied in 1967 to "safe and recognised" borders. In other words, Israel wouldn't go back to the lines of 4 June 1967, but to a line that it determines according to its own interpretation of UN Security Council resolution 242. Israel hasn't yet offered an official response to the Arab initiative, although it hinted with a certain haughtiness that the Arabs should show more flexibility so as to entice some "painful concessions" in return. Judging by how things are going, and regardless of that thin veneer of Arab tough talking, Arab leaders may do just that. In a recent speech to the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said, "we expect two developments to happen in the course of peace with the Arabs. The first is that a delegation of the Arab League would come to Israel to discuss the initiative. The other is that a 10-way conference would be held." The conference would be attended by the so-called Arab quartet (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates), the international quartet (the EU, UN, US and Russia), as well as Palestine and Israel. Olmert's expectations match the Arab stereotype once described by Kissinger. The former secretary of state used to say that that the Arabs like to engage in "bazaar diplomacy"; they start out with maximal demands and then end up accepting less than the minimum they were initially offered. The main theme of the Arab initiative is that it eliminates the need for haggling by offering "everything in return for everything" or full peace for full withdrawal. The Israelis, however, prefer piecemeal negotiations in order to get as many concessions as they can. Alas, the Arabs, with their perplexed verbosity, are falling for the same old trick. They formed an Arab ministerial committee for the initiative and set up a working group to persuade Israel, and one other to rally international support. Recently, the Arab League called for an international meeting to launch direct talks on all tracks of the peace process. Apparently, the Arabs have forgotten everything they said about the death of the peace process. Once again, they are drowning in their own rhetoric. And once again, Israel is playing for time. Olmert has promised to engage in talks about the initiative, but he hasn't accepted it. Meanwhile, the Arabs are already offering allowances. King Abdullah told Haaretz that the right of return might be waived in exchange for financial compensation. Then he suggested that rich Arab countries might help pay the compensations. Israel will be pleased to know that the concessions have started before even negotiations have begun. While the initiative teeters on its slippery path, things are getting worse everywhere in the region. Here are a few examples. First, Jerusalem is being Judaised and Al-Aqsa Mosque is in danger of serious structural damage. If things keep moving in this direction, Israel will end up fully controlling Jerusalem, even if it allowed the Palestinians a nominal capital somewhere near Al-Aqsa Mosque. Second, the wall of racial separation is being built and every promise President Bush ever made to Sharon is becoming a reality. Third, a wall of reinforced concrete, 220 kilometres in length, would run along the borders of Palestine and Egypt, starting at Rafah, at a cost of $1 billion. Fourth, studies are being prepared to turn the occupied Golan Heights of Syria into an uninhabited nature preserve. Practically speaking, the Golan would end up being a buffer zone between Israel and Syria, with the Israelis going in and out as they please and the Syrians requiring permits. Fifth, the 15,000-strong Palestinian presidential guard is being strengthened, which would boost the chances of a future showdown with Hamas. The plan, costing $59 million, is overseen by US General Keith Dayton and has Israel's full support. Sixth, the US is reinforcing its military capabilities in the Gulf and will end up having more bases there, especially in Iraq. Even after pulling out of Iraq, the Americans would be in a position to fight a sectarian war there by proxy. Seventh, during a recent visit to Israel, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates reiterated his country's commitment to Israel's military superiority. Friendly Gulf countries would serve as a "bulwark" against Iran, he added. Despite the blows they received at the hands of the Iraqi and Lebanese resistance, and despite the dismal prospects of the much-hyped Greater Middle East, the Americans are not giving up on this region. They still expect their allies to wage a proxy war on Iran. And they still dream of dismantling what they see as an "axis of extremists" in the region. The Arab Initiative Follow-Up Committee is likely to succeed in promoting the initiative. It would offer Israel indirect normalisation through media, academic and other programmes. It would make things "flexible" enough through more concessions. In return, the Arabs would get sectarian strife, proxy wars, and a host of other debacles.
