'You can't make war in the Middle East without Egypt and you can't make peace without Syria' – Henry Kissenger New Year's Day will mark the 1,000th day of the Syrian civil war. If that war were to end now, the country would need at least $800 billion and 10 years of work just to restore it to its condition in 2010, the year preceding the Syrian revolution. Of course, Syria's losses cannot be measured solely in economic or material terms. The human, social and psychological tolls are equally enormous. The determination of the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to quash the protest movement has plunged Syria into a catastrophe of unprecedented magnitude. More than 125,000 people have been killed and an equal number detained. Around 2.5 million homes have been destroyed, 8.5 million people — a third of the population — have been displaced, and four million face the spectre of starvation. Against the backdrop of the ongoing violence and increasing economic hardship, international humanitarian relief agencies fear further waves of mass suffering and migration. According to UN experts and a number of Arab and international organisations, the scale of the destruction in Syria exceeds the level of all the other civil wars and conflicts that have taken place since World War II. The social and other non-material repercussions of the destruction and economic losses are impossible to quantify and have brought the Syrian state and society to the brink. As the Syrian opposition activist Yassin Al-Haj Saleh explained, “the conflict in Syria has expanded beyond the national dimension to include foreign players, none of which are able to control its course. At the same time, the violence and brutality of the Syrian regime has destroyed Syrian national cohesion.” International agencies cite alarming figures regarding the costs of the war. The UK-based HSBC estimates that the costs of the war will reach $800 billion by the end of 2014, while some European organisations estimate that Syria will need at least $570 billion for reconstruction. The UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA) puts Syrian government losses alone at $72 billion. UN agencies state that five Syrians are being killed every hour on average, also noting the massive displacements of people that have been taking place due to the systematic destruction of homes and property that has been a constant practice of the regime over the past two years, alongside the killings, arbitrary arrests, torture and other forms of repression. Local and international rights organisations state that they have only been able to document a small portion of the human-rights violations and crimes against humanity that have been perpetrated in Syria due to a lack of information and the difficulties involved in contacting the victims or their relatives. At the humanitarian level, Syrian activists state that more than 750,000 people have been wounded as a result of the war. Of these, a quarter of a million now suffer from permanent disabilities. Another 200,000 have suffered silent deaths due to the lack of access to the medications needed for chronic ailments. According to various agencies, it is impossible to say how many children have been orphaned and how many women have been widowed as a result of the war. Nevertheless, the Syrian Human Rights Network (SHRN), an NGO, says that more then 12,000 children have been killed by gunfire from regime forces, 12 per cent of the total estimated casualties. More than 300,000 children have also been wounded, many critically. At least 9,000 children have been imprisoned in government jails, with the purpose of pressuring their families or relatives. According to the SHRN, regime forces have killed some 11,000 women, accounting for 11 per cent of total deaths. There have been 7,500 recorded cases of sexual assault against women by regime militias. These have been part of regime policy, SHRN sources state, adding that regime forces do not discriminate between men, women and children in their assassinations, abductions, arrests and executions. In addition, regime forces have been using women as human shields when staging incursions into towns and villages, they say. UN-ESCWA reports warn that Syria is also staring at the spectre of famine for the first time in its modern history. Around four million people now live below the food poverty line, compared with 200,000 in 2010, and this huge number of people in need of food relief far exceeds the capacities of the UN and other donor agencies. The number of people falling below the lower poverty line of $2 a day has risen from two to eight million, while those below the upper poverty line has risen from five to 18 million out of Syria's total population of 23 million. In addition to the direct tolls due to poverty, the reports warn of the further attrition this wreaks on society because it exacerbates the causes of conflict and violence. Further compounding this bleak situation, agricultural production has dropped sharply, falling from 17 to five per cent of the country's GDP, while unemployment has risen from 8.4 per cent in 2010 to 49 per cent. Other economic indicators are just as dire. The national budget deficit has risen to 21.4 per cent of GDP from 3.6 per cent in 2010, while public debt has nearly tripled, going from 27 to 65 per cent. Production in the oil sector has plunged by 95 per cent, or from 400,000 barrels a day to 20,000, while natural gas production has dropped by 50 per cent, or from 30 million cubic metres a day to 15 million. The contribution of the petroleum sector to GDP has fallen from 13 to three per cent, and this sector is estimated to have sustained $18 billion in direct and indirect losses. The fight for control over the country's oil fields, petroleum transport systems and marketing outlets has been one of the stakes of a three-way conflict between the militias of the jihadist warlords, the opposition forces and the forces of the regime. The housing sector has been hit hard, with many urban areas becoming battle fields. Between 1.5 and 2.5 million homes and other buildings have been destroyed, with some 315,000 being totally destroyed, 300,000 suffering major damage, and the remainder being partially damaged. The damage has affected some six to seven million homeowners, of whom two million have lost their properties. Between 26 and 35 per cent of Syrian families are now living in slums or informal settlements, and considerable damage has also been inflicted on urban infrastructure. The country's healthcare sector now lacks even the most rudimentary services and facilities, and people routinely avoid hospitals for fear of violence. The massive displacements of persons both at home and abroad have overtaxed the capacities of health services in areas receiving refugees, while the rates of chronic and contagious diseases have been soaring. Domestic production of medicines has fallen to 35 per cent of its pre-war level. There is a severe shortage of vaccines for children, and people requiring urgent medical treatment are screened on the basis of political affiliation. Out of the 88 hospitals in Syria, 50 have been damaged and 31 per cent of the country's 1,919 healthcare centres are now out of service. Even supplies of clean water are at risk since the generators and machinery in many water plants have been damaged. In recent years Syria has been free of polio, but now the country has seen some 22 cases of suspected polio, of which 12 have been confirmed. According to one western health official, with every recorded case of the disease there is the likelihood of 200 unrecorded cases. The fear that the virus could spread to neighbouring countries has prompted the UN to initiative a drive to vaccinate 20 million children in these countries, but the re-emergence of polio in Syria has been a tragic indicator of the failure of the regime, the opposition and the international community to handle the health repercussions of the crisis. In the education sector, school attendance has dropped due to the lack of security, the destruction of a fifth of the country's schools and the flight of a significant portion of the teaching staff. According to UN-ESCWA, school attendance in Aleppo has dropped to six per cent of what it was, while the full-time teaching and educational staff have fallen to 55 per cent of pre-war levels in some cities. The Syrian refugee crisis, described by UN officials as the worst since the genocide in Rwanda 20 years ago, has become a regional nightmare. The war has driven eight million Syrians from their homes, meaning that one out of every three Syrians has been displaced. Were all these displaced persons to form a country of their own, it would have a larger population than Jordan, Libya, Lebanon, Kuwait or Qatar. Lebanon now hosts more than 900,000 Syrian refugees, Jordan 520,000, Turkey 464,000, Iraq 200,000 and Egypt 111,000, these representing only the official figures registered with the UN High Commission for Refugees. Some sources estimate that there are at least these numbers of unregistered refugees in these countries as well, along with many thousands of Syrian refugees in others. In Jordan, one person in every seven is now a Syrian refugee. According to UNESCO figures, only one out of every ten refugee children is receiving a regular education. In other words, some 900,000 Syrian children in refugee camps are deprived of their right to education. UN sources also estimate that the costs of the assistance to Syrian refugees abroad now amount to $54 billion. The Talal Abu Ghazala consultancy firm has also estimated that there are now around 12 million Syrian refugees at home and abroad, a figure considerably higher than the UN estimate of 8.7 million. The refugee crisis is not only taking its toll on the economies and public services of the host countries, but reports also warn of its other wide-ranging impacts on these countries, which are already strained by rising prices and the cost of living, high unemployment, poor or overtaxed healthcare and educational services, shortages of water and other infrastructural services, as well as law enforcement and other municipal services. However, not only has the international system thus far failed to stem the attrition being waged against the Syrian people, but various regional and international parties have also helped to fund and fuel it. As bleak and desperate as the situation is, experts say that the fighting has to stop if the reconstruction is to begin, as to proceed with reconstruction under current conditions would be a futile venture. They also point out that every day of delay not only compounds the humanitarian and material costs of the crisis, but also has a direct impact on Syria's prospects for remaining united. Some caution that the economic repercussions of the war alone may be sufficient to fragment the country if the conflict lasts even one more year. Haitham Manaa, chair of the Steering Committee of the Forces for Democratic Change abroad, does not believe that Syria will be able to end the tragedy by the end of the decade. “The liberal approach, without a dose of social justice, will not be able to achieve the necessary balance to reduce the problems in Syria,” he commented. Even if the war could be brought to an end tomorrow, the Syrian government does not have the resources to cope with the damage it has inflicted, and it is unlikely to be able to raise funds abroad. On top of this, there would be the huge legal hurdles of reconstruction, arising from complex litigation and unclear property rights in the destroyed areas. These things alone could become a trigger for a return to violence.
