With Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul's withdrawal of his presidential candidacy, there seems no end to the increasing polarisation within Turkish society, writes Gareth Jenkins from Ankara On Sunday Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul of the moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (JDP), formally withdrew his candidacy for the country's presidency, just over a week after the staunchly secularist Turkish military threatened to intervene unless he stood down. Under Turkish law, the president is elected by parliament. Gul's withdrawal had been expected ever since the 1 May decision by Turkey's Constitutional Court annulling the first round of voting on 27 April, on the somewhat dubious grounds that less than two thirds of the 550 members of parliament were present in the chamber at the time. Although it is theoretically independent, the decision of the court, which is dominated by committed secularists, was widely interpreted as a response to the military's warning a few days earlier. Initially, Gul vowed to fight on and stand again when parliament convened last Sunday. But the opposition simply boycotted the assembly. When two roll calls failed to produce the required 367 MPs, the Speaker of Parliament Bulent Arinc closed the session. Gul subsequently announced that, although it was technically possible for another vote to be held on 9 May, he would be withdrawing as a candidate. "I am not upset," he insisted. "The most important thing is to have a place in the heart of the nation." But privately, many JDP MPs were less philosophical, and bitterly condemned what they described as a coup against democracy. Last week Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan angrily condemned the court's ruling as a "shot fired against the democratic process". The JDP immediately called for early general elections and proposed amending the Turkish constitution to allow the next president to be elected directly by the people. No one doubts that the JDP is currently the most popular party in the country. At the moment, the general elections have been provisionally scheduled for 22 July, and the JDP has suggested holding elections for the presidency at the same time, in the hope that its chosen candidate for the presidency will be able to capitalise on the party's popularity. "We have no reason to fear fresh elections," said a high-ranking JDP MP. "Our only problem is likely to be how to accommodate the more than 400 seats we expect to win." "If the people are allowed to elect the president and I stand, then I am confident of receiving at least 70 per cent of the vote," predicted Gul. Under the Turkish constitution, parliament is automatically dissolved if it is unable to elect a new president before the term of the incumbent expires. The current president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, is officially due to step down on 16 May. Last week the main opposition leader Deniz Baykal, who has a reputation for pragmatism that would make Machiavelli blush, instructed his party to attempt to block the JDP's proposed constitutional amendments. Unlike with the election of the president, the Turkish constitution specifies that any constitutional amendments must have the support of two thirds of the members of parliament. As the JDP has only 352 seats -- 15 short of the 367 needed -- it requires the support of some of the opposition to push through any constitutional amendments. But Baykal and his Republican People's Party (RPP) appear determined to beat the clock and force parliament to early elections before the constitution can be changed. They are well aware that, if the present system remains in place, the JDP will have to win the forthcoming elections by a landslide, if it wants to be able to choose its own candidate for the presidency. While the politicians wrangle in Ankara, secularist NGOs have continued to organise public rallies to protest what they see as the JDP's attempts to appoint an Islamist as president. On Saturday, tens of thousands of Turks took to the streets in the towns of Canakkale and Manisa in western Turkey. More rallies are planned over the weeks ahead. "We shall continue with the rallies for as long as possible. We shall not allow this government to appoint an Islamist as our president and drag the whole country into darkness," said a member of the Association for Ataturkist Thought, which is one of the main NGOs organising the rallies. But there are fears that the wrangling in Ankara and the protests on the streets are merely deepening the divide in an already dangerously polarised society. Perhaps most worryingly, there is no sign that early elections will heal the wounds. "As long as the rallies continue and the gap between those taking to the streets and those remaining silent deepens, nobody will look for a party that is more conservative than the JDP or more supportive of the current regime than the RPP," wrote columnist Ahmet Hakan in the daily Hurriyet. "The only winners of such an atmosphere will be those who don't care about the division of the country."
