The oil-rich region of Abyei, hotly disputed by Sudan and South Sudan, is likely to surface on the international scene as the date of a self-determination referendum due in October approaches. Khartoum has been trying to postpone that date, which had been proposed by the African Union, but Juba is putting its foot down. In preparation for the referendum, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has given government officials from Abyei time off, so they may go home and get ready for the vote. Khartoum, incensed by the move, called it illegal and destructive. At the heart of the dispute is the rivalry between two tribes, the Messeria who are loyal to Khartoum, and the Dinka Ngok who are loyal to Juba. The Messeria disapprove of the referendum. They say that it cannot possibly be held and that it is being used as a bargaining chip in relations between Sudan and South Sudan. The referendum, Messeria leaders claim, is but an attempt to allow South Sudan to control the executive and legislative branches of the Abyei local government. According to Messiria leaders, Abyei belongs to Sudan, and Khartoum must not allow a referendum to be held there. The Dinka Ngok holds a diametrically opposed view, and it has fought the Messeria over the issue in the past. If the two tribes go to war again, the consequences could be devastating for their respective allies in Khartoum and Juba. According to articles 41 and 42 of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) Sudan and southern leaders signed in 2005, the region of Abyei must undergo a referendum before its civil administration is set up. For the referendum to take place, a special commission must be created to decide on the time and modalities of the referendum. Easier said than done. First of all, there is no official registry of voters, nor a definition of who is a resident of Abyei. The residency requirements were left to the commission to decide, so are the criteria for determining the original inhabitants of Abyei. Such thorny issues have not yet been addressed. The agro-pastoral tribes of the Messiria and Dinka Ngok are known to have historical claims on the area. The referendum law gives the Dinka Ngok the right to vote, but deprives the Messiria of the same right. The Messiria fear that if Abyei becomes a part of Bahr Al-Ghazal in South Sudan, which is one of the options of the said referendum, they will be denied access to their ancestral land. Abyei can, at least theoretically, decide to remain part of the South Kordofan province of Sudan. This would suit the Messeria well, but it doesn't seem to be a likely outcome for now. The Abyei problem intersects with that of the international borders between Sudan and South Sudan. The 2,000 kilometre long border between Sudan and South Sudan has not yet been drawn. Unless a solution is found for Abyei that is acceptable to both the Dinka Ngok and the Messiria tribes, both Khartoum and Juba may find themselves faced with a bloody and unpredictable confrontation. For now, it is not even clear if a referendum over Abyei can be arranged. If a vote is held now, the outcome will depend on the machinations of both Khartoum and Juba, as well as the influence of the foreign powers involved. Presidents Omar Al-Bashir and Salva Kiir, who are due to meet in late August in Khartoum, are in a position to put this issue to rest, perhaps as part of a comprehensive deal involving borders, oil, and other unresolved matters. They have good reason to do so. Both Al-Bashir and Kiir have a host of domestic issues to address, including insurgencies at home. If the two leaders decide that they have more to gain from reconciliation than from hostility, Abyei may turn into a prosperous, multiethnic powerhouse. If goodwill, and self-interest, is summoned on both sides, Khartoum and Juba may be able to reverse their ailing fortunes. For example, Al-Bashir and Kiir may decide to grant the residents of Abyei dual nationality. Not only could such a measure defuse growing tensions between the Messiria and the Dinka Ngok, it may open the way to a genuine era of cooperation between Khartoum and Juba.
