Will Sudan cut in two find a way to heal, asks Gamal Nkrumah Khartoum must not permit its fist to clench at this historic juncture. This week, preliminary results of the referendum on the political future of southern Sudan were released revealing that more than 99 per cent of the voters in southern Sudan opted for independence. Moreover, 99 per cent of southerners registered to vote, expressing a determination to secede. This is not a moment to be missed by policymakers in Khartoum or in Western capitals for that matter. Separation was inevitable given the way the ruling Arab clique in northern Sudan were treating their southern compatriots. The blatant racism was accentuated by religious persecution and political marginalisation. This has been the case since the independence of Sudan from Britain in 1956. The southerners had been turned into sub-humans, or at best infidels. The very name of the country, Sudan, with its indelible association with blackness in the Arabic language, has become a bone of contention. Both South and North are inclined to keep the name in some form. The smooth conduct of the referendum reflects a newly-found magnanimity among the protagonists. In an unprecedented show of solidarity and reconciliation, President Salva Kiir of South Sudan described Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir as the "Hero of Peace". President Al-Bashir in turn pledged to support the fledgling South Sudan in any capacity -- economic and political. However, some observers were reminded of the legacy of the late John Garang, the first leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) -- the most influential political party in southern Sudan. Garang had eschewed secession, wishing instead to see Sudan as a united democratic country. Some Southerners still believe in Garang's vision. But, it seems that the vast majority of Southerners want an independent South Sudan. Yet, there are signs that a compromise might be reached with southerners accepting a confederate solution. Both John Garang and Salva Kiir rank as astute students of power, Sudanese-style. But Kiir evinces little need to win over wavering believers in the southern Sudanese cause among his northern compatriots. Like his predecessor, Kiir is more conscious of the fact that if South Sudan constitutes a political unit as well as a social and administrative one, it must be organised along ethnic and religious lines. South Sudan is not a homogenous country, but is composed of several rival ethnic groups and fighting has often erupted between the militias representing various ethnic groups in the country. What is clear is that Kiir does not believe that southern Sudanese people can coexist peaceably with their northern compatriots. South Sudan, Kiir insists has a unique cultural identity that needs to be nurtured and that cannot be harnessed harmoniously to the purposes of the central government in Khartoum. Kiir and the SPLM were able to draw on the mobilisational and oppositional potential of the existing governing institutions appropriated by the SPLM in the past five years. Garang, on the other hand, was eager to woo northerners to the cause, not of southern Sudan, but of a democratic Sudan where the marginalised and disfranchised are given a chance to participate fully in the decision-making process. But the main differences between then and now is that Garang is no longer with us. Whereas Garang perfectly fitted the demands of the age, Kiir has the full backing of the international community and especially Western powers. "The sight of so many Sudanese casting their votes in a peaceful and orderly fashion was an inspiration to the world and a tribute to the determination of the people and leaders of South Sudan to forge a better future," noted United States President Barack Obama. "After decades of conflict the images of millions of southern Sudanese voters deciding their own future was an inspiration to the world and another step forward in Africa's long journey towards justice and democracy," Obama interjected. "On behalf of the people of the US, I congratulate the people of southern Sudan for a successful and inspiring referendum in which an overwhelming majority of voters chose independence," Obama concluded. The leaders of southern Sudan face a tremendous set of challenges -- economic, political and social. But they must actively enforce their new powers. It must not be forgotten that the landslide vote by southerners in favour of secession could not have been orchestrated without strong moral and financial Western backing. Western powers are providing vitally needed development assistance to the government of southern Sudan. Washington, after South Sudan voted almost unanimously for secession, promptly struck Sudan off the list of pariah states supposedly supporting terrorism. Ominously, violence broke out between military factions in the southern state of Upper Nile especially in and around the state capital Malakal in South Sudan. Be that as it may, a number of issues remain that are bound to complicate relations between Khartoum and Africa's newest nation. The most contentious challenge is the precise definition of the North-South border -- ironically the area where most of the oil reserves are located. Other disputable issues are the division of oil wealth, oil export revenues and oil rights. Three quarters of Sudan's oil reserves are located in southern Sudan, most in disputed borderline areas such as Abyei. Sudan, moreover, is Africa's third largest oil producer and the economic prosperity of both north and south Sudan is dependent on the efficient utilisation of oil revenues. Are Juba and Khartoum capable of managing their respective proceeds from oil? A revenue-sharing formula is necessary if each of northern and southern Sudan is to co-exist in peace. This combustible question cannot be answered satisfactorily without the resolution of the Abyei dispute. The oil-rich enclave is home to the indigenous Dinka Ngok ethnic group as well as nomadic Arab Messeiriya tribesmen. Sudan is adjusting to the new rules of engagement with the Western powers. Khartoum will make a cursory assessment of the results of the referendum on south Sudan in the months to come. However, Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir has come out openly in favour of the independence of southern Sudan. Still, he is reluctant to concede any concessions to Christians in northern Sudan and is determined to promulgate strict Islamic Sharia laws. There are minority Christian and other non-Muslim populations in the Sudanese capital Khartoum. Other Christian enclaves exist precariously in certain densely populated peripheral areas such as the Nuba Mountains of Kordofan in central Sudan. People in these areas have traditionally expressed strong support for the SPLM. Given a choice, they most likely would prefer to be part of southern Sudan. It is interesting to note that tallies from southern Sudanese resident in the northern Sudan and those voting in eight countries of the Diaspora, including Egypt, voted overwhelmingly for secession. Khartoum will not cherish its loss of prestige as the largest African state, but it has itself to blame. For long, South Sudan has been marginalised and it is perhaps the most underdeveloped region of Sudan. Western powers are now determined to invest in the economy of South Sudan. The mood in the south is ecstatic. The mood in the north, in sharp contrast, is sombre, even grim. While the government of Al-Bashir's ruling National Congress Party (NCP) has resigned itself to the secession of South Sudan, other northern opposition political parties are incensed. Khartoum should open its hand further for cooperation with South Sudan in spite of the fact that the southern Sudanese vote for separation was 99.5 per cent -- six of the 10 southern Sudanese states scored 99.9 per cent in favour of secession. That said, Khartoum has been debating that shift for some time now. The powers that be in northern Sudan have accepted the secession of South Sudan as a fait accompli. Khartoum should seek to respond positively to the strategic realities of post-referendum South Sudan that ought to be unexceptional. The West has come to the rescue, a gesture taken with a pinch of salt by the northern political elite. Senator John Kerry, chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, poignantly pointed out that the economic viability of northern Sudan is as important as the development of South Sudan. "The stability of the north is as critical as the outcome in the south," Kerry told reporters in Juba during a recent visit. His words were prophetic. It is still not entirely clear, regardless of the landslide vote for secession whether come July there would be a compromise solution in which northern and southern Sudan would be amalgamated in a single economic unit. The West has signalled that it is not altogether averse to Sudanese economic unity, as long as both parties -- North and South -- are satisfied with the arrangements. By virtue of this dispatch, runs conventional wisdom, the prospects for Sudanese economic unity in spite of political separation cannot be ruled out. After all, there is the delicate problem of dual nationality and the economic interests of Northerners in the South and vice versa. Voices in the North are now calling for both Khartoum and Juba to protect the properties, lives, livelihood and economic wellbeing of Northerners in the South. In July, the final decision will be conclusively concluded. The letter of the articles of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement are in effect implemented; what is now sorely needed is the Sudanese to abide by the spirit of the letter. In the meantime, the flag of Sudan -- northern Sudan -- will continue to flap alongside the flag of South Sudan. This emblem is of immense symbolic value. The southern leadership is reassessing its relationship with the northern Sudanese opposition as well as with key members of the ruling NCP. Rapprochement and reconciliation are the new buzzwords. If Kiir leaves Khartoum with that view still intact, a historic opportunity will not have been missed. Let us hope the leap in faith in a reconciled Sudan is warranted.
