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Syria's chemical traces
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 21 - 08 - 2013

UN inspectors are currently in Syria to look into claims that chemical weapons were used in the course of the ongoing Syrian conflict. The UN mission, led by Ake Sellstrom, will spend two weeks in Syria, during which it will visit three sites at which chemical weapons may have been used.
One of the sites is Khan Al-Asal in Aleppo, where both the government and the opposition accuse each other of having used chemical weapons. The two other sites have not been named.
The UN mission, however, is likely to be inconclusive.
The opposition, and other countries, claim that the Syrian regime used deadly chemicals in the course of the civil war. Damascus, for its part, accused “terrorist groups” of using chemical weapons against civilians.
In March, Damascus refused to let in a UN fact-finding committee, saying that the investigation conflicted with its “sovereignty”.
Damascus has changed its position since. Now it is willing to let the inspectors work, but under conditions that are not yet clear.
The National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCSROF) called on the UN to reveal the terms of the mission, which remains classified.
As the UN investigators began their mission, the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) said that the Syrian army used chemical weapons in 26 occasions in five Syrian governorates. It submitted testimonies, documents, and films backing its claim.
The SNHR compiled evidence from activists, eyewitnesses and medical examiners showing that the army conducted 26 attacks with various types of chemical weapons, leading to the death of 83 and the injury of 790 others.
According to the SNHR, the worst hit areas were Damascus outskirts, Aleppo, Homs, and Idlib.
Damascus outskirts were hit 14 times by chemical weapons, SNHR officials claim.
An Islamic leaning armed group known as Liwa Al-Islam claims to have documented 19 incidents in which the regime used chemical weapons in the past two months alone.
Liwa Al-Islam is affiliated with the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front, which is the largest grouping of Islamist-leaning armed groups in Syria, with 40,000-50,000 men under arms.
According to Liwa Al-Islam, the most recent attack took place in Damascus outskirts, when more than 400 people became sick after being exposed to Sarin gas.
UN reports — based on field visits and meetings with victims, refugees and medical teams — mention that there are “reasonable grounds” for suspecting that limited amounts of chemical products were used.
Investigations failed so far to determine the nature of these chemical weapons, the means of delivery, or the party that used them.
NCSROF promised to fully cooperate with the UN team, saying that it will provide every possible assistance to the investigators, including safe passage into all liberated areas.
NCSROF called on investigators to start their work in Khan Al-Asal, which is under the control of the Syrian armed opposition.
For the inspectors, a main concern is safety, something that Damascus cannot ensure, since many parts of the country are not under its control. Areas in which chemical weapons may have been used are also heavily contested, which means that inspectors may not be able to venture into them.
Aleppo, Homs and Idlib, where fighting is still underway, may prove too hazardous for the UN team.
There is another problem, which is that the traces of chemical weapons tend to disappear with time. This investigation, therefore, may prove inconclusive because it has started too late.
Also, finding evidence of chemical weapons doesn't really reveal who has used them, although it is certain to unleash another round of mutual accusations by the government and its opponents.
Free Syrian Army Commander Colonel Qasem Saadeddin said that the opposition has no access to such weapons.
“The Syrian regime is the only side that owns this type of weapon that needs specific mechanisms and technology for storage and use, things that the opposition doesn't have,” he said.
Saaededdin accused the regime of using such weapons repeatedly.
“The regime is now using these weapons in every place it fails to regain or control. Its aim is to gain as much leverage as it can ahead of the Geneva II conference,” Saadeddin added, referring to the conference the US and Russia hope to hold in November.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moallem said that claims that Damascus used chemical weapons against the opposition are “fabricated”. He added that “terrorists” used nerve gas in Khan Al-Asal in Aleppo.
No one knows the size of Syria's cache of chemical and biological weapons. Syria is not a member of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which keeps records of the stockpiles of such weapons. But the CIA claims that Syria has hundreds of litres of chemical weapons.
General Adnan Sillou, Syria's former chemical warfare chief, admitted that Syria owns “the largest cache of chemical weapons in the Middle East”.
Israel says that Syria began developing chemical weapons 40 years ago and is in possession of the largest chemical weapons arsenal in the world.
Syria, which didn't sign the 1992 Chemical Weapons Convention, consistently denies that it has such weapons.
Still, Western intelligence officials believe that Damascus began producing chemical weapons in 1973 and that it has successfully produced mustard gas, Sarin, and the potent nerve agent VX.
Free Syrian Army spokesman Fahd Al-Masri told Al-Ahram Weekly that Lebanon's Hizbullah received two shipments of Syrian chemicals in recent months, taken to two destinations inside Lebanon.
“The export of chemical weapons to Hizbullah is not meant to threaten Israel's national security, but to change the regional security equation and blackmail Israel into supporting Al-Assad's continual presence in power,” Al-Masri remarked.
A few months ago, Israel promised that it would take military action to prevent Hizbullah from acquiring weapons of mass destruction.
Munzir Khaddam, spokesman for the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change (NCBDC), didn't rule out that Damascus would give its chemical arsenal to Hizbullah if it felt threatened.
“The regime made it clear that if Syria comes under foreign military intervention, it cannot rule out anything, including giving such weapons to Hizbullah and other groups,” Khaddam added.
For all of the above reasons, the UN mission proves the level of alarm in international community about the possibility of chemical weapons falling into the wrong hands. But the mission itself could well be failed before it begins.


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