Russia and Egypt are in sync. Nevertheless, avoiding a sense of déjà vu with Soviet era prevarications has become imperative. Indeed, the pending visit of Vladimir Putin to Egypt peels away some of the myth surrounding the Russian president. America is today no longer the first among equals in the Arab world and Washington must contend with the fact. The Arab urge for security may not have been satiated, but the new relationship between Russia and key countries in the Arab world — such as Egypt — makes sense at this defining moment. Russia has waged a most successful war against militant Islamists in Chechnya. In sharp contrast, America's war on terror is a disastrous flop. The unfortunate American tendency to flirt with militant Islamists has cost it and other nations across the globe a great deal of inconvenience, and in certain cases much suffering. What has America accomplished in Afghanistan? Or in Iraq, for that matter? Absolutely nothing. Except utter ruin and destruction and sectarian strife of a magnitude that has alarmed the world. Afghanistan is still under mortal danger from the Taliban, and Iraq is subject to daily blasts by Al-Qaeda and affiliated organisations. Russia, in sharp contrast, has triumphantly ended terror in Chechnya. So much so that its own Chechen militant Islamists have fled the country to join militant Islamist mercenaries in Syria, Libya and Afghanistan. The underground subway bombings that crippled Moscow a couple of years ago and killed hundreds have stopped due to the systematic clampdown by Russian authorities and a stepping up of the anti-terrorist security apparatus. So have the blasting of schools in Chechnya and elsewhere in the Russian Federation that created a climate of fear and killed hundreds of innocent children in cold blood. Chechen militant Islamists have even turned on America in desperation instead, with the Boston Marathon bombings by the ethnic Chechen Tsarnayev brothers. Russian President Putin announced ahead of his visit to Egypt that the two countries are to conduct military exercises. This came immediately on the back of Washington cancelling its annual military exercises involving Egypt, in protest at the violent crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood supporters. The rising power and influence of Russia has chipped away at the monopoly of American hegemony over the Arab world. The US, for at least a decade to come, will remain a power to be reckoned with in the region. But the motives of the Americans have now become increasingly questionable — even by their closest Arab allies. Moreover, confusing political gridlock in Washington makes it difficult to be certain where its national interest lies. Moscow's growing political clout in the Arab region, on the other hand, should give the West pause for thought. Putin's poignant political acumen and survival instinct is suffused with a vision for a new role for Russia in the Arab region. He makes a convincing case on combating terrorism — one that appeals to Arab leaders. Russia is ridding itself of the last vestiges and imprints of negative publicity that only a decade ago peaked in the Arab world. Frankly speaking, Arabs distrusted Russia. Not so now. Helping to turn Egyptians in the direction of Putin has been Barack Obama's handling of Egypt's current political turmoil, and what is seen as systematic bias in the Western media to what is actually happening in the country. Overtly critical of the current interim government, the police and the army, Western media has turned a blind eye and a deaf ear to the fact that the majority in Egypt — as reflected in local media — is overwhelmingly supportive of the interim government and hostile to the Muslim Brotherhood. This is not because the Egyptian media is kowtowed by the military. The majority of media workers in Egypt, like Egyptians in general, deeply resent the Muslim Brotherhood: its utter incompetence during its year in office, its flirting with Israel and Western powers and its dubious political agenda bent on the destruction of an Egypt Egyptians adore. Insult is added to injury when the Western media hypocritically and loudly chastises Egypt on the question of human rights. Given that at present most Egyptians, while incensed, don't give two hoots about the West or its biased media, it is not surprising to see the fortunes of Putin rising. By popular mandate, the Egyptian people — an estimated 33 million or so — took to the streets and Tahrir Square to protest against the administration of ousted President Mohamed Morsi and remove the Muslim Brotherhood from power. Russia officially acknowledged that what happened in Egypt was not a coup d'état. Putin did not prevaricate as the Americans did. The timing of Putin's visit is meticulous. All the same, there are plenty of ways Putin can blunder back into “Soviet” era realpolitik. It is not entirely clear when Putin will arrive in Cairo — exact dates have not been fixed. But Putin is the first non-Arab leader to express a keen interest in visiting the country. Putin will not just discuss the situation in Egypt, it is said, and prospective arms deals to be signed. He is also scheduled to discuss Syria. Putin's Russia has been instrumental in propping up the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Without Russian diplomatic, military, logistical and moral support it would have been inconceivable that Al-Assad would have survived this long. Putin would not have visited Egypt under Morsi, who declared a virtual jihad on the Damascus regime. Putin has already called an extraordinary session in the Kremlin to put “all Russian military facilities at the Egyptian military's disposal”. The report, which cited several sources without providing any further details, also said: “Putin will discuss Russian arrangements for joint military exercises with the Egyptian army.” An article by Maria Gorkovskaya and Tatyana Baykova, headlined “European Union threatens Egyptian military with sanctions,” says the EU plans to stop arms supplies to Cairo in an attempt to restrain the new military authorities. But Putin appears ready to step in when others exit the scene. About 50,000 Russian tourists are in Egypt at any given moment. Half of the Russian tourist population — and temporary residents — in Egypt reside in the Red Sea resort of Hurghada. Another quarter reside in the Sinai resort of Sharm El-Sheikh. But it is about more than tourism. Putin, a wily statesman, almost certainly has his eyes on the broader geostrategic horizon. “America cannot determine Egypt's future,” a rather nervous President Obama declared. The pressing question regarding Putin's visit to Egypt is whether Russia hopes to found a new relationship with Egypt and the Arab world at large, and on what terms. As it steps to the fore, will Russia give Egypt the room it needs to make sovereign decisions, or is this the restart of the old Cold War? Memories of successive wars between Egypt and the Arab world, on the one hand, and Israel with the backing of the West, on the other hand, evoke strong emotions to this day. Drawing an arbitrary line in the sands of the Arabian and Saharan deserts is not as easy as it sounds. The days of Sykes-Picot are over. What bearing would Russia take towards Arab aspirations on the broadest level if its star were to rise? And how would it deal with local elites? In many ways, Egypt is similar to Russia, or vice versa. Lurking behind outward change in the former has been “the local equivalent of what in Turkey has come to be called the ‘deep state' — that is, a network of officials with loyalties to the security services who have both the resources and the incentive to destroy an open post-revolutionary regime,” writes Roger Owen in The Rise and Fall of Arab President for Life. Similar groups, he continues, “known as ‘silovaki', also exist in Russia, consisting of anyone with a background in agencies that use force and coercion.” In short, there is shared experience, and so the chance for common understanding. Meanwhile, if Russia is about to sell Egypt and other Arab countries sophisticated weapons, the West will lose a great deal. If President Obama or Senator McCain threatens to cancel military aid to Egypt, Russia will almost certainly pick up the pieces and make a fortune. Russia is, after all, one of the world's largest arms exporters — second only to America. What happened in post-Mubarak Egypt, and in other Arab countries of the Arab Spring, “bears close resemblance to the similar sell-off that took place in Yeltsin's Russia in the early 1990s”. Putin doubtless understands, and is positioning Russia accordingly. Russia is also inching closer to the oil-rich Arab Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia. “President Obama is either an idiot or he is purposely trying to destroy the American economy,” Putin said in one recent — and telling — off-the-cuff remark.
