Amid a power struggle pitting the Muslim Brotherhood against the National Salvation Front, the country is hurtling towards a perilous future. Egypt, a state of ancient heritage, is staring into the abyss.Scenes of turmoil in Egyptian cities illustrate the lawlessness in which the country is wading due to the inability of the government to meet the basic demands for which the revolution broke out on 25 January 2011. Statements by Defence Minister Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi underline the military's alarm over a situation that poses “a real threat to the security of Egypt and the cohesion of the state”.Speaking at a meeting with Military College cadets, the minister said that “failure to address this situation by all concerned parties will lead to grave consequences for the stability of the country.”The minister offered a clear warning when he pointed out that “the continued conflict among political groups and their wrangling in matters concerning the running of the state will lead to the collapse of the state and imperil future generations.” A sense of disenchantment has descended upon us, as hopes pinned on the January 2011 uprising were dashed. It was hoped that the revolution would redress injustices, accelerate progress, and boost Egypt's historical standing. What happened instead, says prominent legal expert Yehia Al-Gamal, was that the authorities abused their power, ditched the tolerance of Islam, and attempted to control every nook and cranny of power, with a clear intention to hold on to power. As the situation became more desperate, the newly created National Salvation Front called for abrogating the constitutional declarations, suspending the constitution written by the Constituent Assembly, reviving the 1971 constitution for a maximum of two years, and electing a new assembly to write a democratic constitution, one that protects human rights, the judiciary and political pluralism. The alarm bells are ringing: the economy is in free fall, unemployment is soaring, and prices are spiralling out of sight. As the country celebrated the second anniversary of the revolution, fears of a collapse of power echoed with warnings of an imminent implosion of the state. On 25-26 January, following the court ruling on the Port Said football massacre, more than 40 people died in demonstrations in that city, and hundreds were wounded in clashes in anti-Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations in Suez, Cairo and other cities. President Mohamed Morsi reacted to the protests by declaring a state of emergency in the cities of the Suez Canal, with a month-long curfew from 9pm to 5am that was immediately challenged by the population.The police, unable to defy protesters, made no attempt to enforce the curfew the president had ordered. Meanwhile, an underground police group began issuing statements calling for mutiny against the orders of the interior minister. Members of this group even handed over their armoured vehicles to the protesters. In the days that followed, several protesters were killed — either shot or tortured to death. Indeed, the images of police brutality are reminiscent of the Interior Ministry's practices under the deposed regime. If there is light at the end of the tunnel, we haven't seen it yet. The Muslim Brotherhood, which has come to power during the transitional phase, doesn't seem to be aware that consensus is the name of the game, or capable of restraining its insatiable appetite for power.Transitional leaders derive their power from the legitimacy of change, as well as from their ability to manage the transition with sagacity. The Muslim Brotherhood, as opposition figures keep saying, only joined the revolution on 28 January, three full days after the protests started and only when it was clear that the tide was irreversible. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which organised the parliamentary and presidential elections, left power before the transitional phase was complete. For the transitional phase to be complete, Egypt needed a consensual constitution in place, one that reflects the pluralistic fabric of Egyptian society, not one that mirrors the view of only one part of society. Egypt has turned into a civilian (from a military-led) state, but it is still going through a transitional phase. Is there a way out of this dilemma? It is evident that the Muslim Brotherhood is pleased with the prominence it has achieved and has no desire to give up one inch of ground, at the risk of drowning the whole country. It is equally evident that the army — the country's default saviour since Mohamed Ali's time and through the 2011 revolution — has not made up its mind on what to do to protect the country's security, stability and unity. The army's position so far is one of neutrality. On the one hand, the army has not come out in support of the president, which may have something to do with the fact that Morsi dismissed — unceremoniously — a call by the army for dialogue two months ago. On the other hand, the army has not come out in support of the opposition's demands. Some have interpreted the defence minister's statement as a warning shot, in the sense that the army will step in if the situation goes out of hand and if public and government institutions are under threat. According to this interpretation, the army may remove Morsi from the presidency if he goes on rejecting the opposition's demand — now supported by the Nour Party — of a national salvation government. The recent creation of an alternative front, under the name of the Conscience Front, is a non-starter. Most of the members of this front are closely affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and the Freedom and Justice Party, and many of them had taken part in a series of presidential dialogues that produced no tangible results. We are thus left with three possibilities: the formation of a national salvation government; an army takeover; and the collapse of the Egyptian state and the outbreak of bread riots.
