The Syrians are monitoring developments in the region with increasing alarm, writes Sami Moubayed from Damascus The Syrians, the public and government alike, are worried about the latest developments taking place on their three borders, with Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq. The situation in Iraq has taken a backseat, however, despite its gravity, as Syria worries more about how relations will develop (or deteriorate) with Lebanon after the International Tribunal in the Rafik Al-Hariri affair came into effect on 10 June. Further complicating the issue was the assassination of the former pro-Syrian, and later opponent, Beirut MP Walid Eido. Syria condemned the assassination and insisted that it had nothing to do with it, despite loud accusations coming from the 14 March Coalition against Damascus. The prime concern these days, however, is the civil war in Palestine between Hamas and Fatah, and the proposed peace talks with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Syria has traditionally been an ally of Hamas and for many years hosted the Islamic group, often at the expense of its reputation in the international community. This always came at the expense of Fatah, which engaged in on- going dispute with the Syrians during the era of former President Yasser Arafat. Only on rare occasions did Syria and Fatah cooperate. That changed when Arafat died in 2004. President Bashar Al-Assad attended his funeral and Syria turned over a new page in its relations with the Fatah-led Palestinian government. Prime minister Ahmed Qurei was welcomed to Damascus, holders of Palestinian Authority (PA) passports were recognised in Syria (they were not under Arafat). Abbas was referred to as "president" in the Syrian press, although Arafat had always been called "chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organisation [PLO]." Syria then sponsored dialogue between Fatah and Hamas, refusing, however, to expel the leaders of Hamas, whom it claims have media and political offices in Syria, rather than military ones. More support for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was shown in November 2004 after British Prime Minister Tony Blair sent his special envoy Sir Nigel Sheinwald to Damascus. Blair's man told the Syrians that after consulting with the US, Great Britain had several topics on its agenda for developing Syrian-British relations. Number one was Iraq. Number two was supporting Abbas. Syria tried to do just that by getting Hamas to moderate its behaviour, and accept a cabinet headed by an independent (this is when the name of Mahmoud Shubayr, an academic, emerged). Then Ismail Haniyeh declared from Gaza that he would not be continuing his job as prime minister. These declarations, announced from Damascus by Hamas leader Moussa Abu Marzouk, were believed to be the results of Syrian efforts, as a gesture of goodwill towards Abbas. Then came the latest crisis between Hamas and Fatah and the take-over of Gaza by the Islamic group. Syria pursued a surprisingly neutral stance in covering the events, often taking news from the wires to avoid sounding very pro-Hamas. Syria's three state-run dailies projected the story of both parties and ran the appointment of Salam Fayyad, the new premier, as front page news. Abbas Zaki, the PLO delegate in Beirut, came to Syria and met with Vice-President Farouk Al-Shara, handing him a letter from the Palestinian president Abbas stressed that Hamas had carried out "a blood coup" and told the Syrian vice-president that its militants had targeted and insulted the symbols of Palestinian nationalism (in reference to the homes of Abbas, former President Arafat, and his late commander Abu Jihad (Khalil Al-Wazir). Zaki said: "Do you accept that they enter the residence of the martyr Abu Jihad, who was buried in Damascus (and whose funeral was attended by one million people), to destroy it? Do you accept that they invade the home of President Arafat and tread on his photograph?" Zaki then expressed Fatah's anger over the fact that Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal gave a press conference from Damascus defending his party against accusations of having launched a coup in Gaza. He said: "Is it logical for him [Meshaal] to give orders for this bloody coup that they carried out while he is sitting here [in Damascus]?" Al-Shara calmly replied: "Our hearts are with you and for you. The differences should not have reached this stage." When Zaki called on Syria to take sides and condemn Hamas, Al-Shara refused. In Damascus, Zaki met all the Palestinian factions residing there, including a delegation from Islamic Jihad, but refused to meet people from Hamas, since Fatah had declared it an illegal organisation. No further steps have been taken however, and Syria is waiting to see if the Palestinian territories will be divided between a Fatah-led West Bank and a Hamas-led Gaza; something that the Syrians detest. The other concern for the Syrians is peace talks with Israel. For three years now, President Bashar Al-Assad has repeatedly said that Syria is ready to re-start talks on the Golan Heights. The idea was vetoed first by President George W. Bush, who said that Syria is a "very weak country" that "just has to wait" until all other Middle East issues are resolved. That was seconded first by former prime minister Ariel Sharon then Ehud Olmert. They, and the US administration, claimed that Syria was not serious about peace and had only revived the topic to divert the world's attention from its role in Iraq and Lebanon, especially after the assassination of Al-Hariri. Then, beginning in 2006, talk of peace re-surfaced--not from Syria, but the Israelis. First it appeared in the Israeli press following the war with Hizbullah in July 2006. Some Israelis commented that only Syria had the key to securing Israel's borders with Lebanon, and by making peace with the Syrians, Israel would also by default, be ridding itself of the Hizbullah danger. Back then, this never got past the drawing board because the outcomes of the war -- to say the least -- were not satisfying for Israel and Hizbullah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, along with Syria, claimed victory for having foiled Israel's objectives and standing up to the Israeli Defence Force for 34 days. Then came US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Damascus in April 2007, saying that she had a peace proposal from Prime Minister Olmert. This was followed in June by a rising chorus of Israeli officials who began referring to peace with Syria, while Olmert claimed to have sent "several" messages to the Syrians, via third-parties. And since then, every single Israeli daily has been debating the issue of peace with Syria. The "Syria story" was surpassed only by two towering events: the return of Ehud Barak, and the civil war between Hamas and Fatah. The Israeli dailies even translated and quoted Syria's three state run dailies, Al-Baath, Al-Thawra, and Tishreen. The Syrians are alarmed. Why now? What has changed since 2006? In his latest speech before Parliament in May 2007, President Assad said that he feared the Olmert cabinet because broken leaders can engage in strange things like war--rather than peace with their neighbors. One reason for Israel's U-turn is domestic pressure on the Israeli premier, whose entire Kadima-Labour coalition is on the verge of collapse. The Winograd Report's investigation into the summer war against Hizbullah nearly destroyed his career. Furthermore, the Labor Party, headed by Ehud Barak, is threatening to steal all the glory from Olmert. It is the prime minister who needs to divert attention from his domestic problems -- rather than Syria -- and that explains why he has suddenly started sending signals to Damascus. Olmert also ostensibly received an okay from US President George Bush. Although Bush is critical of the Syrians for a variety of reasons, he knows that he needs them on two fronts: Iran and Iraq. Contrary to what is believed, he wants to make "peace" with the Syrians (in some regards) to serve as a stepping stone to dialogue with the Iranian regime and not -- as the US media is saying -- to wedge Damascus away from Tehran. For their part the Syrians made it clear that they will not engage in direct secret talks with Israel. The Syrians were also angered by an Israeli "condition" for peace, this being a cessation of Syria's ties with Hamas, Hizbullah, and Iran. The Israelis also said that they were not ready for talks with the Syrians without a US mediator. Syria however, is uninterested. It wants an honest broker -- a Clinton- like statesman -- supervising its talks with Israel, just like in the 1990s.
